Marbury Plan · Independence, MO 64055

$81,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 874 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 874 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $82k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $591 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 5.0% in Independence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#10 in MO, #1,296 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Independence 30 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #252 of 324 in MO (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 200 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,002 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (2,271 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $566 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 874 days — a 12% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $72,072 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 874 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.95%
• DSCR: 2.38
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $27,563
• Equity at exit: $12,212

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.75×
• Total profit: $86,062
• Equity at exit: $7,081

Cash invested: $22,932 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64055

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,465 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$429
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$102 /mo · $1,228/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $716

Max offer price $81,900

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,475
• Closing costs: $2,457
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4580 Bass Pro Dr Independence, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1114	$1,829	$1.64	1d	10	0.50mi
16301 E 48th Ter Kansas City, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	945	$1,270	$1.34	21d	7	0.68mi
3926 S Redwood Dr Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	945	$1,050	$1.11	23d	1	1.06mi
3100 Quail Creek Dr Independence, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	961	$1,330	$1.38	12d	1	1.15mi
19301 E Eastland Center Ct Independence, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,575	$2.10	3d	5	1.22mi
4631 S Eastland Center Dr Independence, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1022	$1,655	$1.62	43d	29	1.26mi
4631 S Eastland Center Dr Independence, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1022	$1,598	$1.56	1d	22	1.26mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $81,900 Active 874 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $81,900 Active 873 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $81,900 Active 872 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $81,900 Active 871 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $81,900 Active 869 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $81,900 Active 865 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $81,900 Active 864 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $81,900 Active 863 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $81,900 Active 860 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $81,900 Active 859 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $81,900 Active 858 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $81,900 Active 857 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $81,900 Active 856 DOM
14. 2024-01-26
    listed $81,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,588
• − Property taxes: −$1,228
• − Insurance: −$410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,406
• − Management: −$1,406
• − Depreciation: −$2,383
• Taxable income: $6,160
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,478
• After-tax cash flow: $5,619/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and updates across all systems and areas, significantly impacting its current condition and value. A comprehensive renovation is necessary to bring it up to market standards and increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen — No photos of the kitchen
• Major Bathrooms — No photos of the bathrooms
• Major Roof — No photos of the roof
• Major Exterior — No photos of the exterior
• Major Flooring — No photos of the flooring
• Major Interior walls/paint — No photos of the interior walls/paint
• Major Windows — No photos of the windows
• Major Foundation/structure — No photos of the foundation/structure
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals
• Major Landscaping/curb appeal — No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal

Value-add opportunities

• Both Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen can significantly increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Bathroom renovation — Upgraded bathrooms are a major selling point for both buyers and renters.
• Both Exterior painting and landscaping — A fresh coat of paint and well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Roof replacement — A new roof is a critical component of home maintenance and can significantly boost property value.
• Both HVAC system upgrade — A modern, energy-efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce utility costs, attracting more buyers and renters.
• Both Structural repairs — Any necessary structural repairs should be addressed to ensure the home's safety and maintain its value.
• Both Interior updates — Fresh paint, new flooring, and updated fixtures can make the interior more appealing and increase the home's value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can enhance curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen · No photos of the kitchen	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathrooms · No photos of the bathrooms	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · No photos of the roof	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior · No photos of the exterior	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · No photos of the flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · No photos of the interior walls/paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · No photos of the windows	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation/structure · No photos of the foundation/structure	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping/curb appeal · No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 10 items		$150,000–500,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen can significantly increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Bathroom renovation — Upgraded bathrooms are a major selling point for both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Exterior painting and landscaping — A fresh coat of paint and well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Roof replacement — A new roof is a critical component of home maintenance and can significantly boost property value. ↑
• Both HVAC system upgrade — A modern, energy-efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce utility costs, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Structural repairs — Any necessary structural repairs should be addressed to ensure the home's safety and maintain its value. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Fresh paint, new flooring, and updated fixtures can make the interior more appealing and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can enhance curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Independence 30
• NCES district ID: 2915480
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,843
• Composite: 27.04/100
• National rank: #7054
• State rank: #252 of 324 in MO

Livability — Independence

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1296

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Independence, MO
• County: Jackson County · 687,798 people
• City population: 117,675
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 35,960
• Household income: $62,439
• Rent vs Own: 30.4% rent · 69.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1404.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 719,589 people
• By 2030: 731,456 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 746,689 · +3.8%
• By 2050: 749,289 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 736,227 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 668,210 · -7.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: D (+19.3) · D 58.9% · R 39.5% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.1pp toward R · 2008: 25.4pp · 2024: 19.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.3 2020: D+22.0 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -180.54%
• Current HPI: 245.3636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.09%
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-01-26 Listed $81,900 Zillow