4390 N Williams Ave · Crystal River, FL 34428

$182,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1991 0.50 ac lot Est $175k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice location for this 3 bedroom, 2 bath doublewide. Living in Crystal River, you will never run out of fun things to do. With several boat ramp's nearby, you can enjoy spending the day out on beautiful Kings Bay, fishing, kayaking, and swimming with the manatees. Or, if you'd rather shop the day away, downtown in Heritage Village is where you'll want to be, with many charming shops to browse through, and then stop in at one of the quaint eateries for a bite to eat. Close to everything, this home features a split floor plan, large living room with a wood-burning fireplace, master bedroom suite, screened porch, all on half an acre of land.

Key facts

• Quartz counters
• Half acre
• Gas oven range

Tags

• HALF ACRE
• PRIVATE ABOVE GROUND POOL
• TOTAL KITCHEN REMODEL
• QUARTZ COUNTERS
• GAS OVEN RANGE
• FULL STAINLESS APPLIANCE SUITE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Driveway; Paved parking; 1 parking space
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Faces east
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Approximately 27 ft by 56 ft (double wide)
• Exterior features: Deck; French doors; Above-ground pool; Shed(s); Cleared, landscaped, level and wooded lot; Paved road frontage (county road)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Range hood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Blinds and window coverings; Gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $183k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $210 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $183k).
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 2.1% in Crystal River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#603 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crystal River Primary School (math 45% / reading 55%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 654 students, 70% FRL); Crystal River Middle School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade C-, #286 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 900 students, 64% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 320 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,179/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 264% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $183k implies a 281% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.91%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,392
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4278 N Weewahi Pt	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,549 (+2%)	10mo	$180,000	$116	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-16,085
• Equity at exit: $27,271

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,959
• Equity at exit: $15,814

Cash invested: $51,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34428

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,179 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$959
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $597/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,914

Max offer price $182,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $313	-5% $262	+0% $210	+5% $158	+10% $106
Rent	-10% $38	-5% $124	+0% $210	+5% $296	+10% $382
Rate	-1.0pp $302	-0.5pp $256	base $210	+0.5pp $162	+1.0pp $114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,725
• Closing costs: $5,487
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10785 W Spring Cir Crystal River, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,600	$1.19	21d	1	0.54mi
10906 W Cove Harbor Dr Crystal River, FL	2.0	2.0	1409	$2,950	$2.09	21d	1	0.67mi
1950 NW 12th Ave Unit B Crystal River, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	21d	1	0.74mi
1701 NW 22nd St Crystal River, FL	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,100	$1.37	21d	1	0.75mi
11057 W Harbor Watch Loop Crystal River, FL	2.0	1.5	1074	$1,495	$1.39	21d	1	0.78mi
11055 W Harbor Watch Loop Crystal River, FL	2.0	1.5	1074	$1,550	$1.44	21d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $182,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $182,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $182,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $182,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $182,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $182,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $182,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $182,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $182,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $182,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 693-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $182,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $597 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,518 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$921/yr (+$77/mo · 154.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,150
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,245
• − Property taxes: −$597
• − Insurance: −$6,033
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,092
• − Management: −$2,092
• − Depreciation: −$5,321
• Taxable loss: −$230
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$55
• After-tax cash flow: $2,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal River

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #603
• US rank: #11564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 10,163
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,163
• Household income: $50,779
• Rent vs Own: 22.8% rent · 77.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 264.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.32%
• Current HPI: 317.7637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+293.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $182,900 RACC
• 2017-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2017-07-07 Sold (MLS) $48,000 RACC
• 2017-06-26 Listed $50,000 RACC
• 2002-08-16 Sold (MLS) $44,000 RACC
• 2002-07-30 Listed $46,500 RACC

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $597 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.