23 Cubb Ct · Windsor, VT 05089

$87,826

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 643 sqft · Manufactured · 345 Days on market

Built 2025 $500/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 23 Cubb Court, Windsor, VT, where modern comfort meets affordability in Mount Ascutney MHP! This brand-new Redman 25206-58 manufactured home offers 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, and 643 sq. ft. (13'4"x48) of thoughtfully designed living space. Step inside to an open-concept layout with stylish finishes, a bright living area, and a well-appointed kitchen. The home features energy-efficient construction, modern appliances, and low-maintenance materials, making it perfect for easy living. Located in a peaceful and well-maintained community, this home is ideal for those looking for a move-in-ready option in a convenient location. Don’t miss out on this opportunity! Contact us tod

Key facts

• Move-in-ready option
• Modern appliances
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT CONSTRUCTION
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• LOW-MAINTENANCE MATERIALS
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• MOVE-IN-READY OPTION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Mount Ascutney mobile home park (park approved); Mobile make: Dales; model: #3 Redman Custom
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $500; HOA covers water, sewer, trash, plowing, and other services

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (dirt)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 100 Amp electric service with circuit breakers; High-speed internet available; Cable available; Telephone available
• Home design: Manufactured home (Manuf/Mobile style); New construction; Shingle roof
• Construction: Vinyl exterior siding; Manufactured home construction; Built in 2025
• Exterior features: Level lot; Dirt driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric stove
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl plank flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Forced air / hot air system
• Interior features: Two total rooms; Laminate and vinyl plank flooring; One full bathroom
• Laundry & utility: Energy Star washer; Energy Star dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $381 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#11 in VT, #2,626 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, employment F.
• Zoned schools: Albert Bridge School (West Windsor) (math 30% / reading 30%, grade F, #136 of 192 statewide, top 72%, 63 students, 11% FRL).
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 339 units permitted in Windsor County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Windsor County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 345 days — a 12% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $88k implies a 778% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.

Recommended offer $77,286 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 345 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.58%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $10,302
• Equity at exit: $13,095

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $41,334
• Equity at exit: $7,594

Cash invested: $24,591 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05089

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,769 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $232/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$500
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,287

Max offer price $87,826

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $431	-5% $406	+0% $381	+5% $356	+10% $331
Rent	-10% $241	-5% $311	+0% $381	+5% $451	+10% $521
Rate	-1.0pp $425	-0.5pp $403	base $381	+0.5pp $358	+1.0pp $335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,956
• Closing costs: $2,635
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $500 · $6,000/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $87,826 Active 345 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $87,826 Active 344 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $87,826 Active 343 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $87,826 Active 342 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $87,826 Active 341 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $87,826 Active 339 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $87,826 Active 338 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $87,826 Active 335 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $87,826 Active 334 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $87,826 Active 333 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $87,826 Active 329 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $87,826 Active 328 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $87,826 Active 327 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $87,826 Active 326 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $87,826 Active 325 DOM
16. 2025-07-24
    price $87,826
17. 2025-07-09
    listed $87,326 Active
18. 2010-08-03
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $232 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $951 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$718/yr (+$60/mo · 309.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,226
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,920
• − Property taxes: −$232
• − Insurance: −$439
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,698
• − Management: −$1,698
• − HOA: −$6,000
• − Depreciation: −$2,555
• Taxable income: $3,683
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$884
• After-tax cash flow: $3,686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Windsor

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #2626

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,498

Population outlook (Windsor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,235 people
• By 2030: 51,269 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 46,517 · -12.6%
• By 2050: 41,859 · -21.4%
• By 2075: 33,298 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 24,523 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Romanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Windsor

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.6) · D 66.3% · R 30.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: 39.7pp · 2024: 35.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.6 2020: D+38.9 2016: D+32.1 2012: D+38.1 2008: D+39.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.88%
• Current HPI: 299.8881
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+778.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $87,826 PrimeMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listed $87,326 PrimeMLS
• 2010-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $232 · -19.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.