298 Jersey Hill Rd · Danby, NY 14850

$200,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,368 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 265 Days on market

Built 1860 2.38 ac lot ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Dreaming of a big rambling farm house on a hill? Check out this spacious country home on a convenient corner lot, with lots of room. The 1991 addition and location make this home a great bargain. It's not perfect, but it could be. Double driveways, a 20 year old barn, and a large back yard section make this home a great opportunity. Danby lifestyle with an Ithaca mailing address. Lockbox is on the back door. There are 2 driveways, one on the hilltop and second driveway on Jersey Hill leads to the barn.

Key facts

• 20 year old barn
• Large back yard
• Double driveways

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• DOUBLE DRIVEWAYS
• 20 YEAR OLD BARN
• LARGE BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ithaca City School District (urban): math 57% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #195 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Belle Sherman School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 307 students, 34% FRL); Boynton Middle School (math 36% / reading 64%, grade C, #261 of 729 statewide, top 36%, 526 students, 36% FRL); Ithaca Senior High School (math 95% / reading 95%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 1,341 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 382 units permitted in Tompkins County in 2024 (208 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tompkins County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.95%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-15,277
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $24,944
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14850

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,285 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$489 /mo · $5,862/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,051

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-17
   price $200,000
3. 2025-10-02
   price $225,000
4. 2025-08-19
   price $260,000
5. 2025-07-09
   listed $275,000 Active
6. 2024-12-17
   historical
7. 2024-10-31
   price $259,900
8. 2024-10-22
   price $279,900
9. 2024-09-21
   listed $284,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,862 · $489/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,862 · $489/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,417
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$5,862
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,193
• − Management: −$2,193
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$854
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$205
• After-tax cash flow: $2,416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ithaca City School District
• NCES district ID: 3615570
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,528
• Composite: 54.01/100
• National rank: #1397
• State rank: #195 of 590 in NY

Livability — Danby

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Tompkins County · 68,610 people
• Metro: Ithaca, NY
• Population (ZIP): 68,610
• Household income: $71,445
• Rent vs Own: 55.2% rent · 44.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 5169.0

Population outlook (Tompkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,958 people
• By 2030: 118,774 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 125,927 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 133,599 · +17.2%
• By 2075: 156,759 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 169,896 · +49.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Chinese 5% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Tompkins

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+50.6) · D 75.3% · R 24.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+50.6 2020: D+49.2 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+39.8 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -276.59%
• Current HPI: 389.7215
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.22%
• Metro: Ithaca, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-29.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — IBRMLS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $200,000 IBRMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $225,000 IBRMLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $260,000 IBRMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listed $275,000 IBRMLS
• 2024-12-17 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-10-31 Price Changed $259,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-10-22 Price Changed $279,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-09-21 Listed $284,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,862 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.