24046 Kentwood Springs Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$235,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,490 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 4,800 sqft lot Garage $158/sqft · at area comps Est $239k · at est. $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully designed 2022 new construction home offering modern comfort with timeless style. Nestled in the sought-after Breckenridge Forest community in Spring, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence blends contemporary finishes with warm, natural tones.

Key facts

• 4,800 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• BRECKENRIDGE FOREST COMMUNITY
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $236k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-213 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Chet Burchett El (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 904 students, 82% FRL); Rickey C Bailey Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,065 students, 85% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 760 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,922 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.87%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,345
• List price: $235,500
• Delta: 0.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5718 Simcrest Grove Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,396 (-6%)	20mo	$261,165	$187	52
23114 Goodfellow Dr	1.04mi	3/2.0	1,541 (+3%)	8mo	$210,000	$136	52
23814 Gold Cypress Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+3%)	21mo	$279,990	$182	48
4806 Quailgate Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-14%)	9mo	$205,000	$160	42
23907 Stardust Valley Dr	0.95mi	3/2.0	1,396 (-6%)	16mo	$259,990	$186	41
4522 Quailgate Dr	0.80mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+1%)	22mo	$199,999	$133	41
23142 Calico Corners Ln	1.06mi	3/2.0	1,599 (+7%)	20mo	$179,000	$112	36
4555 Algernon Dr	1.09mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-9%)	18mo	$205,000	$151	35
6034 Alberta Falls Dr	0.89mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-13%)	16mo	$249,990	$193	30
23923 Stardust Valley Dr	0.95mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-13%)	18mo	$249,990	$193	28
4515 Hickorygate Dr	0.83mi	3/2.0	1,258 (-16%)	17mo	$224,900	$179	26
3406 Alpine Terrain Dr	0.91mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+12%)	22mo	$294,995	$176	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-58,067
• Equity at exit: $35,114

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-92,527
• Equity at exit: $20,362

Cash invested: $65,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 48 active · 20 under contract
• Median asking: $251,500 ($161/sqft)
• Median days on market: 44 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 760
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,258 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,235
• Tax from tax record: −$631 /mo · $7,569/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,528

Max offer price $197,922

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-79	-5% $-146	+0% $-213	+5% $-279	+10% $-346
Rent	-10% $-391	-5% $-302	+0% $-213	+5% $-124	+10% $-34
Rate	-1.0pp $-94	-0.5pp $-153	base $-213	+0.5pp $-274	+1.0pp $-336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,875
• Closing costs: $7,065
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by InframarkAnnual association fee of $400 covering recreation facilitiesCurbs in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertySingle-story (first level entry)
• Construction: Built in 2022Brick exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: SubdivisionConcrete road/driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level, approx. 16 x 14)Bedroom (first level, approx. 12 x 10)Bedroom (first level, approx. 12 x 10)
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboPantryTub with showerKitchen/dining comboLiving/dining roomLow emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Tankless water heaterUtility room (first level, approx. 8 x 6)

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $235,500 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $235,500 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $235,500 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $235,500 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $235,500 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $235,500 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $235,500 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $235,500 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $235,500 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $235,500 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $235,500 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $235,500 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $235,500 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $235,500 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $235,500 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $235,500 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $235,500 Active 3 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $235,500 Active 2 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    pricedays on marketlisting id $235,500 Active 1 DOM
20. 2026-07-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 123 DOM
21. 2026-06-30
    days on market $239,900 Active 122 DOM
22. 2026-06-29
    days on market $239,900 Active 121 DOM
23. 2026-06-28
    days on market $239,900 Active 120 DOM
24. 2026-06-27
    days on market $239,900 Active 119 DOM
25. 2026-06-26
    days on market $239,900 Active 118 DOM
26. 2026-06-24
    days on market $239,900 Active 116 DOM
27. 2026-06-21
    days on market $239,900 Active 113 DOM
28. 2026-06-18
    days on market $239,900 Active 110 DOM
29. 2026-06-17
    days on market $239,900 Active 109 DOM
30. 2026-06-16
    days on market $239,900 Active 108 DOM
31. 2026-06-15
    days on market $239,900 Active 107 DOM
32. 2026-06-13
    days on market $239,900 Active 105 DOM
33. 2026-06-13
    days on market $239,900 Active 104 DOM
34. 2026-06-09
    days on market $239,900 Active 101 DOM
35. 2026-06-08
    days on market $239,900 Active 100 DOM
36. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 99 DOM
37. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,900 Active 96 DOM
38. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 95 DOM
39. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 94 DOM
40. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 93 DOM
41. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 92 DOM
42. 2026-04-16
    price $239,900 978-char remark
43. 2026-02-28
    listed $249,900 Active 978-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,569 · $631/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,569 · $631/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,192
• − Property taxes: −$7,569
• − Insurance: −$1,178
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,168
• − Management: −$2,168
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$6,851
• Taxable loss: −$6,420
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,541
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2022 new construction home in Spring, TX, offers modern comfort with timeless style. It is in good condition with no visible repairs needed, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can appeal to a broader range of buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can enhance the overall appeal of the home and attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Flooring — Fresh flooring can make the home more appealing and attract more buyers. ↑
• Rental Painting — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing to renters and attract more tenants. ↑
• Rental Landscaping — A well-maintained yard can improve curb appeal and attract more tenants. ↑
• Rental Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the home more appealing to renters and attract more tenants. ↑
• Rental Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can enhance the overall appeal of the home and attract more tenants. ↑
• Rental Flooring — Fresh flooring can make the home more appealing and attract more tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 23/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Chet Burchett El F TX #2,234/4,322 Nat'l #24,773/41,679 Middle Rickey C Bailey Middle F TX #1,466/1,662 Nat'l #11,948/14,009 High Spring H S F TX #1,497/1,632 Nat'l #15,176/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by InframarkAnnual association fee of $400 covering recreation facilitiesCurbs in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertySingle-story (first level entry)
• Construction: Built in 2022Brick exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: SubdivisionConcrete road/driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level, approx. 16 x 14)Bedroom (first level, approx. 12 x 10)Bedroom (first level, approx. 12 x 10)
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboPantryTub with showerKitchen/dining comboLiving/dining roomLow emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Tankless water heaterUtility room (first level, approx. 8 x 6)

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-07-13 Listed $235,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,569 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.