216 State Highway 309 · Goodlow, TX 75144

$110,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,361 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 332 Days on market

Built 1980 1.00 ac lot $81/sqft · 30% below area Est $157k · 30% under ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special in Kerens, TX – 1.2076 Acres of Opportunity! Unlock the potential in this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home nestled on a generous 1.2076-acre lot in the quiet town of Kerens, TX. Built in 1980, this property offers a solid structure with endless possibilities for renovation or redevelopment. Living space, the home has remained in its original condition with no updates, making it the perfect canvas for an investor or buyer ready to bring new life into it. With mature trees and plenty of space to expand, add outdoor amenities, or even build new, this is a rare opportunity to own land and a home in a peaceful, small-town setting. Home is being sold AS IS. Cash or rehab loan buyers only. Don’t miss your chance to invest in a property with great bones and great potential. Schedule your showing today and imagine the possibilities!

Key facts

• Original condition
• 1.2076 acres
• Mature trees

Tags

• 1.2076 ACRES
• MATURE TREES
• ORIGINAL CONDITION
• CANVAS FOR RENOVATION
• PEACEFUL SMALL-TOWN SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $222 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,208 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Kerens ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #495 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 522 units permitted in Navarro County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Navarro County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 332 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (42%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 332 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.63%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,347
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -30.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $43,347
• Equity at exit: $66,453

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $117,210
• Equity at exit: $118,248

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75144

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,230 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,529/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $949

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $284	-5% $253	+0% $222	+5% $190	+10% $159
Rent	-10% $124	-5% $173	+0% $222	+5% $270	+10% $319
Rate	-1.0pp $277	-0.5pp $250	base $222	+0.5pp $193	+1.0pp $164

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 332 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 331 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 329 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 328 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 327 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 326 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 324 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 323 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 320 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 319 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 318 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 317 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 314 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 313 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 312 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 311 DOM
17. 2025-12-08
    price $110,000 870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (870 chars)

    Investor Special in Kerens, TX – 1.2076 Acres of Opportunity! Unlock the potential in this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home nestled on a generous 1.2076-acre lot in the quiet town of Kerens, TX. Built in 1980, this property offers a solid structure with endless possibilities for renovation or redevelopment. Living space, the home has remained in its original condition with no updates, making it the perfect canvas for an investor or buyer ready to bring new life into it. With mature trees and plenty of space to expand, add outdoor amenities, or even build new, this is a rare opportunity to own land and a home in a peaceful, small-town setting. Home is being sold AS IS. Cash or rehab loan buyers only. Don’t miss your chance to invest in a property with great bones and great potential. Schedule your showing today and imagine the possibilities!

18. 2025-10-29
    price $145,000 870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (870 chars)

    Investor Special in Kerens, TX – 1.2076 Acres of Opportunity! Unlock the potential in this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home nestled on a generous 1.2076-acre lot in the quiet town of Kerens, TX. Built in 1980, this property offers a solid structure with endless possibilities for renovation or redevelopment. Living space, the home has remained in its original condition with no updates, making it the perfect canvas for an investor or buyer ready to bring new life into it. With mature trees and plenty of space to expand, add outdoor amenities, or even build new, this is a rare opportunity to own land and a home in a peaceful, small-town setting. Home is being sold AS IS. Cash or rehab loan buyers only. Don’t miss your chance to invest in a property with great bones and great potential. Schedule your showing today and imagine the possibilities!

19. 2025-10-02
    price $175,000 870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (870 chars)

    Investor Special in Kerens, TX – 1.2076 Acres of Opportunity! Unlock the potential in this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home nestled on a generous 1.2076-acre lot in the quiet town of Kerens, TX. Built in 1980, this property offers a solid structure with endless possibilities for renovation or redevelopment. Living space, the home has remained in its original condition with no updates, making it the perfect canvas for an investor or buyer ready to bring new life into it. With mature trees and plenty of space to expand, add outdoor amenities, or even build new, this is a rare opportunity to own land and a home in a peaceful, small-town setting. Home is being sold AS IS. Cash or rehab loan buyers only. Don’t miss your chance to invest in a property with great bones and great potential. Schedule your showing today and imagine the possibilities!

20. 2025-07-24
    listed $190,000 Active 870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (870 chars)

    Investor Special in Kerens, TX – 1.2076 Acres of Opportunity! Unlock the potential in this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home nestled on a generous 1.2076-acre lot in the quiet town of Kerens, TX. Built in 1980, this property offers a solid structure with endless possibilities for renovation or redevelopment. Living space, the home has remained in its original condition with no updates, making it the perfect canvas for an investor or buyer ready to bring new life into it. With mature trees and plenty of space to expand, add outdoor amenities, or even build new, this is a rare opportunity to own land and a home in a peaceful, small-town setting. Home is being sold AS IS. Cash or rehab loan buyers only. Don’t miss your chance to invest in a property with great bones and great potential. Schedule your showing today and imagine the possibilities!

21. 2025-07-23
    historical
22. 2025-07-12
    listed $190,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,529 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,013 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$484/yr (+$40/mo · 31.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,529
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
• − Management: −$1,181
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $957
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$230
• After-tax cash flow: $2,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kerens ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825530
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,364
• Composite: 30.81/100
• National rank: #6142
• State rank: #495 of 826 in TX

Livability — Goodlow

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1208
• US rank: #21056

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodlow, TX
• City population: 3,798
• Population (ZIP): 3,798

Population outlook (Navarro County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,397 people
• By 2030: 48,096 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 47,394 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 46,541 · -3.8%
• By 2075: 44,940 · -7.1%
• By 2100: 42,288 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Navarro

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.8) · D 23.7% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: -33.1pp · 2024: -51.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.8 2020: R+45.5 2016: R+48.8 2012: R+42.4 2008: R+33.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.61%
• Current HPI: 236.2915
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-42.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $110,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $145,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-24 Listed $190,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-12 Listed $190,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,529 · -45.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.