16199 Main Ridge Rd · Tangier, VA 23440

$42,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,068 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 1900 8,712 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Story goes a bardge moved this home to the lands known as the Uppers, an island near the port in Tangier, by the Crockett family. In 2018, the present owners enjoyed life on Tangier and had a successful gift shop from the spacious enclosed front porch. 2068 sq' with 4 bedrooms, an eat-in kitchen, 1 bath, two enclosed porches and a massive attic. Sturdy home, yet the gardens, paint, and some of the plaster walls need to be redone; additionally, a properly functioning heat and air system. The electric company will have to inspect, and a permit will be required before the electricity can be turned on. Plus, some of the plumbing pipes are broken. While Tangier is a moderately busy area, it seem

Key facts

• Massive attic
• Two enclosed porches
• 8,712 sq ft lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• TWO ENCLOSED PORCHES
• MASSIVE ATTIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $42k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#390 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Accomack County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #99 of 131 in VA (top 76%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 181 units permitted in Accomack County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($290 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Accomack County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,740 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.93%
• DSCR: 4.73
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.60×
• Total profit: $30,560
• Equity at exit: $18,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.28×
• Total profit: $73,845
• Equity at exit: $29,104

Cash invested: $11,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23440

• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,409 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$52 /mo · $630/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $907

Max offer price $42,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $425	-5% $410	+0% $396	+5% $381	+10% $367
Rent	-10% $285	-5% $340	+0% $396	+5% $452	+10% $507
Rate	-1.0pp $417	-0.5pp $407	base $396	+0.5pp $385	+1.0pp $374

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,500
• Closing costs: $1,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-01-10
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-04
   status Active
3. 2025-11-29
   status Pending
4. 2025-11-21
   listed $42,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,902
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,353
• − Property taxes: −$630
• − Insurance: −$5,328
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,352
• − Management: −$1,352
• − Depreciation: −$1,222
• Taxable income: $4,665
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,120
• After-tax cash flow: $3,632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Accomack County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100060
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,348
• Composite: 43.05/100
• National rank: #3096
• State rank: #99 of 131 in VA

Livability — Tangier

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #390
• US rank: #16048

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tangier, VA
• Population (ZIP): 240

Population outlook (Accomack County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,072 people
• By 2030: 31,425 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,685 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 27,748 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 23,396 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 18,774 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: German 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Accomack

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 43.0% · R 56.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+9.4 2016: R+11.7 2012: R+3.5 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-10 Pending — ESAR
• 2025-12-04 Relisted — ESAR
• 2025-11-29 Pending — ESAR
• 2025-11-21 Listed $42,000 ESAR