2655 Rocky Point Rd · East Marion, NY 11939

$1,529,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,564 sqft · SingleFamily · 121 Days on market

Built 2006 1.20 ac lot $596/sqft · 5% below area Est $1611k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the beauty of coastal living with this young Colonial built in 2006 and set on 1.2 verdant level acres of privacy and seclusion. The expansive front yard, complemented by a grand circular driveway, creates a lasting first impression. The welcoming covered front porch is perfect for sipping your morning coffee while the equally expansive rear yard is ideal for star gazing on warm summer evenings or hosting large gatherings. An open floor plan connects the living, dining and kitchen spaces offering seamless daily living and makes entertaining a breeze. Four generously-sized bedrooms including a substantial primary ensuite with jacuzzi and an additional hall bath, complete the second floor. There is unfinished attic space above the attached two-car garage and a full unfinished lower level with high ceilings which may provide a blank slate for even more living space. Located just down the road from renowned Rocky Point Rd. Beach, a fresh vegetable stand and fragrant lavender farm, this home is also just a stone's throw from convenient ferries, a myriad of wineries and acclaimed Greenport with world class dining. This gem offers a fantastic opportunity to enjoy all the North Fork is so well known for and more!

Key facts

• 1.2 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.53M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.42M (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.35M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,051 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Oysterponds Union Free School District (rural): math 30% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #506 of 755 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $64k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $53k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $428k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$103k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.35M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $90k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $335k; list at $1.53M implies a 356% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $1,345,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.01%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,611,144
• List price: $1,529,000
• Delta: -5.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
980 The Greenway	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,800 (+9%)	2mo	$1,500,000	$536	55
2190 Stars Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,346 (-8%)	8mo	$945,000	$403	54
410 Aquaview Ave	0.57mi	4/3.5	2,700 (+5%)	9mo	$1,545,000	$572	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $358,492
• Equity at exit: $728,317

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $1,037,397
• Equity at exit: $1,155,241

Cash invested: $428,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11939

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $14,218 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,018
• Tax from tax record: −$432 /mo · $5,181/yr
• Insurance: −$637
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,986
• Net cashflow: $2,145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,503

Max offer price $1,529,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,011	-5% $2,578	+0% $2,145	+5% $1,712	+10% $1,280
Rent	-10% $1,022	-5% $1,584	+0% $2,145	+5% $2,707	+10% $3,268
Rate	-1.0pp $2,915	-0.5pp $2,534	base $2,145	+0.5pp $1,749	+1.0pp $1,346

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $382,250
• Closing costs: $45,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3045 Rocky Point Rd East Marion, NY	3.0	2.0	2025	$12,000	$5.93	44d	1	0.08mi
3600 Rocky Point Rd East Marion, NY	3.0	2.5	3000	$16,000	$5.33	44d	1	0.20mi
580 Stars Rd East Marion, NY	4.0	3.5	2700	$35,000	$12.96	44d	1	0.47mi
11003 Main Rd East Marion, NY	3.0	2.0	3000	$15,000	$5.00	44d	1	0.70mi
300 Marion Pl East Marion, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$19,000	$10.86	25d	1	0.73mi
11930 Main Rd East Marion, NY	4.0	2.0	2200	$3,500	$1.59	44d	1	0.93mi
580 South Ln East Marion, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$20,000	$10.00	19d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,529,000 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,529,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,529,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,529,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,529,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,529,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1,529,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,529,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,529,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,529,000 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,529,000 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,529,000 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,529,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,529,000 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,529,000 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    price $1,529,000 1235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1235 chars)

    Experience the beauty of coastal living with this young Colonial built in 2006 and set on 1.2 verdant level acres of privacy and seclusion. The expansive front yard, complemented by a grand circular driveway, creates a lasting first impression. The welcoming covered front porch is perfect for sipping your morning coffee while the equally expansive rear yard is ideal for star gazing on warm summer evenings or hosting large gatherings. An open floor plan connects the living, dining and kitchen spaces offering seamless daily living and makes entertaining a breeze. Four generously-sized bedrooms including a substantial primary ensuite with jacuzzi and an additional hall bath, complete the second floor. There is unfinished attic space above the attached two-car garage and a full unfinished lower level with high ceilings which may provide a blank slate for even more living space. Located just down the road from renowned Rocky Point Rd. Beach, a fresh vegetable stand and fragrant lavender farm, this home is also just a stone's throw from convenient ferries, a myriad of wineries and acclaimed Greenport with world class dining. This gem offers a fantastic opportunity to enjoy all the North Fork is so well known for and more!

17. 2026-02-20
    listed $1,619,000 Active 1235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1235 chars)

    Experience the beauty of coastal living with this young Colonial built in 2006 and set on 1.2 verdant level acres of privacy and seclusion. The expansive front yard, complemented by a grand circular driveway, creates a lasting first impression. The welcoming covered front porch is perfect for sipping your morning coffee while the equally expansive rear yard is ideal for star gazing on warm summer evenings or hosting large gatherings. An open floor plan connects the living, dining and kitchen spaces offering seamless daily living and makes entertaining a breeze. Four generously-sized bedrooms including a substantial primary ensuite with jacuzzi and an additional hall bath, complete the second floor. There is unfinished attic space above the attached two-car garage and a full unfinished lower level with high ceilings which may provide a blank slate for even more living space. Located just down the road from renowned Rocky Point Rd. Beach, a fresh vegetable stand and fragrant lavender farm, this home is also just a stone's throw from convenient ferries, a myriad of wineries and acclaimed Greenport with world class dining. This gem offers a fantastic opportunity to enjoy all the North Fork is so well known for and more!

18. 2026-02-19
    historical $1,619,000 1235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1235 chars)

    Experience the beauty of coastal living with this young Colonial built in 2006 and set on 1.2 verdant level acres of privacy and seclusion. The expansive front yard, complemented by a grand circular driveway, creates a lasting first impression. The welcoming covered front porch is perfect for sipping your morning coffee while the equally expansive rear yard is ideal for star gazing on warm summer evenings or hosting large gatherings. An open floor plan connects the living, dining and kitchen spaces offering seamless daily living and makes entertaining a breeze. Four generously-sized bedrooms including a substantial primary ensuite with jacuzzi and an additional hall bath, complete the second floor. There is unfinished attic space above the attached two-car garage and a full unfinished lower level with high ceilings which may provide a blank slate for even more living space. Located just down the road from renowned Rocky Point Rd. Beach, a fresh vegetable stand and fragrant lavender farm, this home is also just a stone's throw from convenient ferries, a myriad of wineries and acclaimed Greenport with world class dining. This gem offers a fantastic opportunity to enjoy all the North Fork is so well known for and more!

19. 2026-01-02
    historical
20. 2025-04-30
    listed $1,650,000 Active
21. 2024-12-08
    historical
22. 2024-05-07
    listed $1,850,000 Active
23. 2023-11-08
    historical
24. 2023-08-03
    listed
25. 2006-01-09
    soldstatus $335,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,181 · $432/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,511 · $1,293/mo
• Expected delta: +$10,329/yr (+$861/mo · 199.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $170,618
• − Mortgage interest: −$85,648
• − Property taxes: −$5,181
• − Insurance: −$7,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$13,649
• − Management: −$13,649
• − Depreciation: −$44,480
• Taxable income: $365
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$88
• After-tax cash flow: $25,655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oysterponds Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621930
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $71,948
• Composite: 42.9/100
• National rank: #6712
• State rank: #506 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Marion

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1051
• US rank: #20822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Marion, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,741

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scottish 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.47%
• Current HPI: 281.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+356.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $1,529,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Listed $1,619,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Coming Soon $1,619,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-30 Listed $1,650,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-08 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-07 Listed $1,850,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-08 Rental Removed — ONEKEY
• 2023-08-03 Listed for Rent — ONEKEY
• 2006-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $335,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,181 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.