33 Deer Ridge Rd · Mystic, CT 06378

$579,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,189 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1990 1.87 ac lot $487/sqft · 42% above area Est $684k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 33 Deer Ridge Road, where comfort, privacy, and endless possibilities join together. This tastefully updated 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath 1-Car Garage home is designed to fit all your needs. The home features a warm, inviting open-concept layout. Downstairs you can find an additional space that can be used for lounging or can be easily made into two additional bedrooms. Settled on a private 1.87 acre lot, the yard is a blank canvas of possibilities. Ready to transform into your dream oasis. Conveniently located close to 95, and just a short drive to the charming coastal town of Mystic. Don't miss the opportunity to make 33 Deer Ridge home.

Key facts

• 1.87 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1990

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $579k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-554 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $481k (16.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $385k (33.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $385k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.0% in Mystic — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#11 in CT, #1,266 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Stonington School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #43 of 153 in CT (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 487 units permitted in Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($136k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($562k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $390k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $384,718 (33.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.10%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $684,164
• List price: $579,000
• Delta: -15.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-129,283
• Equity at exit: $86,331

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-158,774
• Equity at exit: $50,061

Cash invested: $162,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06378

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,847 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,036
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,785/yr
• Insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$808
• Net cashflow: $-554

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,548

Max offer price $481,181

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-226	-5% $-390	+0% $-554	+5% $-718	+10% $-881
Rent	-10% $-858	-5% $-706	+0% $-554	+5% $-402	+10% $-250
Rate	-1.0pp $-262	-0.5pp $-406	base $-554	+0.5pp $-704	+1.0pp $-856

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $144,750
• Closing costs: $17,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-18
   price $579,000 652-char remark

   Show marketing remark (652 chars)

   Welcome to 33 Deer Ridge Road, where comfort, privacy, and endless possibilities join together. This tastefully updated 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath 1-Car Garage home is designed to fit all your needs. The home features a warm, inviting open-concept layout. Downstairs you can find an additional space that can be used for lounging or can be easily made into two additional bedrooms. Settled on a private 1.87 acre lot, the yard is a blank canvas of possibilities. Ready to transform into your dream oasis. Conveniently located close to 95, and just a short drive to the charming coastal town of Mystic. Don't miss the opportunity to make 33 Deer Ridge home.

2. 2026-04-29
   price $585,000 652-char remark

   Show marketing remark (652 chars)

   Welcome to 33 Deer Ridge Road, where comfort, privacy, and endless possibilities join together. This tastefully updated 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath 1-Car Garage home is designed to fit all your needs. The home features a warm, inviting open-concept layout. Downstairs you can find an additional space that can be used for lounging or can be easily made into two additional bedrooms. Settled on a private 1.87 acre lot, the yard is a blank canvas of possibilities. Ready to transform into your dream oasis. Conveniently located close to 95, and just a short drive to the charming coastal town of Mystic. Don't miss the opportunity to make 33 Deer Ridge home.

3. 2026-03-28
   listed $599,000 Active 652-char remark

   Show marketing remark (652 chars)

   Welcome to 33 Deer Ridge Road, where comfort, privacy, and endless possibilities join together. This tastefully updated 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath 1-Car Garage home is designed to fit all your needs. The home features a warm, inviting open-concept layout. Downstairs you can find an additional space that can be used for lounging or can be easily made into two additional bedrooms. Settled on a private 1.87 acre lot, the yard is a blank canvas of possibilities. Ready to transform into your dream oasis. Conveniently located close to 95, and just a short drive to the charming coastal town of Mystic. Don't miss the opportunity to make 33 Deer Ridge home.

4. 2026-03-25
   historical $599,000 652-char remark

   Show marketing remark (652 chars)

   Welcome to 33 Deer Ridge Road, where comfort, privacy, and endless possibilities join together. This tastefully updated 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath 1-Car Garage home is designed to fit all your needs. The home features a warm, inviting open-concept layout. Downstairs you can find an additional space that can be used for lounging or can be easily made into two additional bedrooms. Settled on a private 1.87 acre lot, the yard is a blank canvas of possibilities. Ready to transform into your dream oasis. Conveniently located close to 95, and just a short drive to the charming coastal town of Mystic. Don't miss the opportunity to make 33 Deer Ridge home.

5. 2024-09-13
   soldstatus $390,000 Closed 559-char remark

   Show marketing remark (559 chars)

   Spacious raised ranch tucked away on a flat, private lot. Set back from the road in an established neighborhood, you get the best of privacy and community. Appliances and windows replaced in the last few years. 3 bedrooms on the main floor including large primary with its own bathroom. 2 additional finished spaces downstairs that can be used however you'd like, but still plenty of unfinished space for storage. 1-car integral garage. Some cosmetics will go a long way in making this house a home for its new buyer! Closing subject to family title transfer.

6. 2024-08-14
   status Under Contract 559-char remark

   Show marketing remark (559 chars)

   Spacious raised ranch tucked away on a flat, private lot. Set back from the road in an established neighborhood, you get the best of privacy and community. Appliances and windows replaced in the last few years. 3 bedrooms on the main floor including large primary with its own bathroom. 2 additional finished spaces downstairs that can be used however you'd like, but still plenty of unfinished space for storage. 1-car integral garage. Some cosmetics will go a long way in making this house a home for its new buyer! Closing subject to family title transfer.

7. 2024-08-07
   listed $389,900 Active 559-char remark

   Show marketing remark (559 chars)

   Spacious raised ranch tucked away on a flat, private lot. Set back from the road in an established neighborhood, you get the best of privacy and community. Appliances and windows replaced in the last few years. 3 bedrooms on the main floor including large primary with its own bathroom. 2 additional finished spaces downstairs that can be used however you'd like, but still plenty of unfinished space for storage. 1-car integral garage. Some cosmetics will go a long way in making this house a home for its new buyer! Closing subject to family title transfer.

8. 2017-10-30
   soldstatus $207,600
9. 2017-08-14
   historical
10. 2017-04-28
    listed $184,900
11. 2014-11-04
    historical
12. 2014-05-11
    listed $225,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,785 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,088 · $674/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,303/yr (+$359/mo · 113.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,433
• − Property taxes: −$3,785
• − Insurance: −$2,895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,693
• − Management: −$3,693
• − Depreciation: −$16,844
• Taxable loss: −$17,177
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,122
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stonington School District
• NCES district ID: 0904380
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $75,939
• Composite: 55.15/100
• National rank: #1280
• State rank: #43 of 153 in CT

Livability — Mystic

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #1266

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: New London County · 147,197 people
• Metro: Norwich-New London, CT
• Population (ZIP): 5,555
• Household income: $135,714
• Rent vs Own: 22.2% rent · 77.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 98.0

Population outlook (Southeastern Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 293,442

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Romanian 8% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Southeastern Connecticut

• 2024 margin: D (+13.0) · D 55.6% · R 42.6% · Other 1.8%
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.67%
• Current HPI: 193.423
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Norwich-New London, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+157.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $579,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $585,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $599,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-03-25 Coming Soon $599,000 Smart MLS
• 2024-09-13 Sold (MLS) $390,000 Smart MLS
• 2024-08-14 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2024-08-07 Listed $389,900 Smart MLS
• 2017-10-30 Sold (MLS) $207,600 Smart MLS
• 2017-08-14 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2017-04-28 Listed $184,900 Smart MLS
• 2014-11-04 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2014-05-11 Listed $225,000 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,785 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.