2537 Birch Ave · The Villages, FL 32162

$325,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2007 3,520 sqft lot Est $279k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. COMPLETELY RENOVATED and move-in ready! This beautifully Remolded 2-bedroom, 2-bath home has been redone from floor to ceiling with quality finishes throughout. Enjoy peace of mind with a BRAND NEW ROOF, AC, and WATER HEATER—all completed in 2026. Beautiful LUXURY VINYL PLANK flooring runs seamlessly throughout the home, offering both style and durability with easy maintenance. Modern knock-down ceilings add a clean, updated finish with no popcorn ceilings in sight. The beautifully renovated kitchen features Corian countertops, brand new soft-closing cabinets, stainless steel appliances, extra cabinetry for added storage, and plenty of counter s

Key facts

• New water heater
• Renovated kitchen
• New ac

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW AC
• NEW WATER HEATER
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• KNOCK-DOWN CEILINGS
• RENOVATED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present
• HOA & community: Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Villa (residential); One story; Faces west; Situated on approximately 0.08 acre
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,627 square feet
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Irrigation equipment; Community pool; Golf course access; Deed-restricted community; Golf carts allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in the kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-745/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 551 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $202k; list at $325k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,123 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.82%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $278,596
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1358 Hollyberry Pl	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	3mo	$280,000	$242	92
2507 Everwood Ct	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,188 (+3%)	3mo	$305,000	$257	90
2543 Raintree Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-5%)	1mo	$285,500	$260	88
2376 Branchville Ter	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	1mo	$250,000	$216	88
2369 Travis Pl	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	4mo	$235,000	$203	84
2672 Sandhill Ct	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	2mo	$260,000	$225	82
2371 Camden Ter	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,182 (+2%)	5mo	$285,000	$241	82
2677 English Ivy Cir	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+7%)	1mo	$299,900	$242	72
1814 Hallandale Ln	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	1mo	$280,000	$242	67
1808 Hallandale Ln	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	1mo	$275,000	$238	67
1858 Endsley Ct	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	1mo	$270,000	$234	65
1380 Tallowtree Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+7%)	7mo	$245,000	$198	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-54,184
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-42,098
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 551
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,631 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$301 /mo · $3,612/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,710

Max offer price $314,036

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $122	-5% $30	+0% $-62	+5% $-154	+10% $-246
Rent	-10% $-270	-5% $-166	+0% $-62	+5% $42	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $21	base $-62	+0.5pp $-146	+1.0pp $-232

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2383 Camden Ter The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,500	$2.12	23d	1	0.22mi
2372 Travis Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$2,000	$1.68	23d	1	0.30mi
2368 McClellanville Ter The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1142	$4,800	$4.20	23d	1	0.40mi
1607 Allendale Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,800	$2.42	23d	1	0.45mi
2014 Johnson Ct The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,000	$1.73	23d	1	0.99mi
7730 Wilds Loop Wildwood, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$2,054	$1.89	23d	28	1.17mi
2290 Nackman Pl The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1427	$3,800	$2.66	23d	1	1.26mi
2272 Vassar Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,500	$1.77	23d	1	1.29mi
2280 Biscayne Ave The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,000	$2.86	23d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-30
   remarks 693-char remark
2. 2026-05-30
   statusdays on market $325,000 Pending 14 DOM
3. 2026-05-16
   listed $325,000 Active
4. 2025-11-20
   soldstatus $202,000
5. 2012-04-12
   soldstatus $128,500
6. 2010-04-07
   soldstatus $131,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,612 · $301/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,612 · $301/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,575
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$3,612
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,526
• − Management: −$2,526
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$6,374
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,530
• After-tax cash flow: $785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+148.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $325,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $202,000 Public Records
• 2012-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $128,500 Public Records
• 2010-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $131,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,612 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.