37170 N Granite Creek Ln · Carefree, AZ 85377

$1,499,900

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,704 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 127 Days on market

Built 2009 0.36 ac lot $405/sqft · 7% below area Est $1613k · 7% under $125/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the pinnacle of high-performance luxury in this custom Classic Stellar masterpiece, situated on a quiet & desirable cul-de-sac in the gated Reserve at Tranquil Trail. Unlike mass-produced builds, this home features a signature airtight thermal envelope designed for maximum energy efficiency and climate control. The interior impresses with 12'+ ceilings, travertine flooring, and solid core Alder doors. A chef's kitchen complete with thick granite, custom cabinetry, and a social island flows into a sun-drenched family room. Retreat to the primary suite for spa-like indulgence with a multi-head walk-in shower and private patio access. Two additional guest suites each boast private ensuites for ultimate comfort. Step outside to a backyard oasis featuring a sparkling pool framed by breathtaking Black Mountain views. Enjoy the Carefree lifestyle with downtown dining, golf, and shopping just a short walk away. Just a stone's throw from Cave Creek and Scottsdale. Superior High-Performance Build: Classic Stellar's renowned airtight construction minimizes heat gain and energy loss, providing a quiet, dust-free, and eco-friendly environment. Designer Interiors: Features Hunter Douglas window treatments, custom draperies, and premium lighting that accentuates the open-concept layout. Gourmet Kitchen: Equipped with thick granite countertops, a stone backsplash, stainless steel appliances, and a massive social island. True Guest Suites: Every bedroom features a private ensuite bath, offering maximum privacy for family or visitors. Outdoor Sanctuary: Low-maintenance paver stones, a spacious covered patio, and a pool designed for sunset gatherings against the Black Mountain silhouette. The "Carefree" Lifestyle: Located in a premium gated enclave, you are steps away from world-class golf, boutique shopping, and fine dining.

Key facts

• Private ensuites
• Gated reserve
• Backyard oasis

Tags

• GATED RESERVE
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PATIO ACCESS
• BACKYARD OASIS
• BLACK MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• PRIVATE ENSUITES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $523 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.19M (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.19M (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.0% in Carefree — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 90% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $102k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $92k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $420k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$164k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.32M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,194,393 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.49%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,613,406
• List price: $1,499,900
• Delta: -7.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37334 N Winding Wash Trl	0.09mi	3/3.5	3,741 (+1%)	10mo	$1,800,000	$481	84
7780 E Verde Vista Trl	0.14mi	3/3.5	3,757 (+1%)	7mo	$2,400,000	$639	83
37146 N Granite Creek Ln	0.02mi	4/4.5 (+1)	3,394 (-8%)	14mo	$2,000,000	$589	67
37901 N Tranquil Trl	0.50mi	4/4.0 (+1)	3,935 (+6%)	3mo	$1,305,000	$332	59
38199 N Tranquil Way	0.70mi	4/4.0 (+1)	3,805 (+3%)	3mo	$2,560,000	$673	56
7686 E Stagecoach Pass Rd	0.56mi	3/4.0	3,962 (+7%)	13mo	$2,800,000	$707	52
7135 E Carefree Dr	0.58mi	4/4.0 (+1)	3,711 (+0%)	21mo	$845,000	$228	50
36425 N UP & Down Pl	0.37mi	3/3.5	3,177 (-14%)	10mo	$1,325,000	$417	48
37636 N Round Robin Ct	0.62mi	4/4.5 (+1)	3,383 (-9%)	7mo	$1,340,000	$396	44
37202 N Holiday Ln	0.70mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,333 (-10%)	3mo	$2,158,000	$647	41
8102 E Serene St	0.67mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,291 (-11%)	7mo	$1,258,000	$382	38
7410 E Stagecoach Pass	0.65mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,447 (-7%)	19mo	$874,000	$254	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $477,359
• Equity at exit: $955,349

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $1,373,572
• Equity at exit: $1,743,326

Cash invested: $419,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85377

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,944 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,866
• Tax from tax record: −$297 /mo · $3,565/yr
• Insurance: −$625
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,508
• Net cashflow: $523

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,282

Max offer price $1,499,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $374,975
• Closing costs: $44,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3000 Ironwood Rd Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	3930	$13,400	$3.41	44d	1	0.78mi
1063 N Boulder Dr Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	3035	$12,000	$3.95	44d	1	0.84mi
1314 Coyote Pass Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	2786	$12,000	$4.31	44d	1	0.88mi
1816 Eagle Claw Dr Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.0	2540	$9,000	$3.54	44d	1	0.90mi
1404 Boulder Pass Carefree, AZ	3.0	2.5	2862	$12,000	$4.19	44d	1	1.08mi
6945 E Stevens Rd Cave Creek, AZ	4.0	4.0	3583	$12,000	$3.35	44d	1	1.17mi
3105 Arroyo Hondo Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	3156	$17,000	$5.39	11d	1	1.17mi
1613 N Quartz Valley Ct Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2831	$12,000	$4.24	44d	1	1.29mi
7723 E Cassia Cir Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.5	3540	$10,000	$2.82	44d	1	1.41mi
7526 E Club Villa Cir Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2557	$7,500	$2.93	44d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,499,900 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,499,900 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,499,900 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,499,900 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,499,900 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,499,900 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,499,900 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,499,900 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,499,900 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,499,900 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,499,900 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,499,900 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,499,900 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,499,900 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    price $1,499,900 1870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1870 chars)

    Experience the pinnacle of high-performance luxury in this custom Classic Stellar masterpiece, situated on a quiet & desirable cul-de-sac in the gated Reserve at Tranquil Trail. Unlike mass-produced builds, this home features a signature airtight thermal envelope designed for maximum energy efficiency and climate control. The interior impresses with 12'+ ceilings, travertine flooring, and solid core Alder doors. A chef's kitchen complete with thick granite, custom cabinetry, and a social island flows into a sun-drenched family room. Retreat to the primary suite for spa-like indulgence with a multi-head walk-in shower and private patio access. Two additional guest suites each boast private ensuites for ultimate comfort. Step outside to a backyard oasis featuring a sparkling pool framed by breathtaking Black Mountain views. Enjoy the Carefree lifestyle with downtown dining, golf, and shopping just a short walk away. Just a stone's throw from Cave Creek and Scottsdale. Superior High-Performance Build: Classic Stellar's renowned airtight construction minimizes heat gain and energy loss, providing a quiet, dust-free, and eco-friendly environment. Designer Interiors: Features Hunter Douglas window treatments, custom draperies, and premium lighting that accentuates the open-concept layout. Gourmet Kitchen: Equipped with thick granite countertops, a stone backsplash, stainless steel appliances, and a massive social island. True Guest Suites: Every bedroom features a private ensuite bath, offering maximum privacy for family or visitors. Outdoor Sanctuary: Low-maintenance paver stones, a spacious covered patio, and a pool designed for sunset gatherings against the Black Mountain silhouette. The "Carefree" Lifestyle: Located in a premium gated enclave, you are steps away from world-class golf, boutique shopping, and fine dining.

16. 2026-04-13
    price $1,525,000 1870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1870 chars)

    Experience the pinnacle of high-performance luxury in this custom Classic Stellar masterpiece, situated on a quiet & desirable cul-de-sac in the gated Reserve at Tranquil Trail. Unlike mass-produced builds, this home features a signature airtight thermal envelope designed for maximum energy efficiency and climate control. The interior impresses with 12'+ ceilings, travertine flooring, and solid core Alder doors. A chef's kitchen complete with thick granite, custom cabinetry, and a social island flows into a sun-drenched family room. Retreat to the primary suite for spa-like indulgence with a multi-head walk-in shower and private patio access. Two additional guest suites each boast private ensuites for ultimate comfort. Step outside to a backyard oasis featuring a sparkling pool framed by breathtaking Black Mountain views. Enjoy the Carefree lifestyle with downtown dining, golf, and shopping just a short walk away. Just a stone's throw from Cave Creek and Scottsdale. Superior High-Performance Build: Classic Stellar's renowned airtight construction minimizes heat gain and energy loss, providing a quiet, dust-free, and eco-friendly environment. Designer Interiors: Features Hunter Douglas window treatments, custom draperies, and premium lighting that accentuates the open-concept layout. Gourmet Kitchen: Equipped with thick granite countertops, a stone backsplash, stainless steel appliances, and a massive social island. True Guest Suites: Every bedroom features a private ensuite bath, offering maximum privacy for family or visitors. Outdoor Sanctuary: Low-maintenance paver stones, a spacious covered patio, and a pool designed for sunset gatherings against the Black Mountain silhouette. The "Carefree" Lifestyle: Located in a premium gated enclave, you are steps away from world-class golf, boutique shopping, and fine dining.

17. 2026-03-07
    price $1,550,000 1870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1870 chars)

    Experience the pinnacle of high-performance luxury in this custom Classic Stellar masterpiece, situated on a quiet & desirable cul-de-sac in the gated Reserve at Tranquil Trail. Unlike mass-produced builds, this home features a signature airtight thermal envelope designed for maximum energy efficiency and climate control. The interior impresses with 12'+ ceilings, travertine flooring, and solid core Alder doors. A chef's kitchen complete with thick granite, custom cabinetry, and a social island flows into a sun-drenched family room. Retreat to the primary suite for spa-like indulgence with a multi-head walk-in shower and private patio access. Two additional guest suites each boast private ensuites for ultimate comfort. Step outside to a backyard oasis featuring a sparkling pool framed by breathtaking Black Mountain views. Enjoy the Carefree lifestyle with downtown dining, golf, and shopping just a short walk away. Just a stone's throw from Cave Creek and Scottsdale. Superior High-Performance Build: Classic Stellar's renowned airtight construction minimizes heat gain and energy loss, providing a quiet, dust-free, and eco-friendly environment. Designer Interiors: Features Hunter Douglas window treatments, custom draperies, and premium lighting that accentuates the open-concept layout. Gourmet Kitchen: Equipped with thick granite countertops, a stone backsplash, stainless steel appliances, and a massive social island. True Guest Suites: Every bedroom features a private ensuite bath, offering maximum privacy for family or visitors. Outdoor Sanctuary: Low-maintenance paver stones, a spacious covered patio, and a pool designed for sunset gatherings against the Black Mountain silhouette. The "Carefree" Lifestyle: Located in a premium gated enclave, you are steps away from world-class golf, boutique shopping, and fine dining.

18. 2026-02-11
    listed $1,600,000 Active 1870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1870 chars)

    Experience the pinnacle of high-performance luxury in this custom Classic Stellar masterpiece, situated on a quiet & desirable cul-de-sac in the gated Reserve at Tranquil Trail. Unlike mass-produced builds, this home features a signature airtight thermal envelope designed for maximum energy efficiency and climate control. The interior impresses with 12'+ ceilings, travertine flooring, and solid core Alder doors. A chef's kitchen complete with thick granite, custom cabinetry, and a social island flows into a sun-drenched family room. Retreat to the primary suite for spa-like indulgence with a multi-head walk-in shower and private patio access. Two additional guest suites each boast private ensuites for ultimate comfort. Step outside to a backyard oasis featuring a sparkling pool framed by breathtaking Black Mountain views. Enjoy the Carefree lifestyle with downtown dining, golf, and shopping just a short walk away. Just a stone's throw from Cave Creek and Scottsdale. Superior High-Performance Build: Classic Stellar's renowned airtight construction minimizes heat gain and energy loss, providing a quiet, dust-free, and eco-friendly environment. Designer Interiors: Features Hunter Douglas window treatments, custom draperies, and premium lighting that accentuates the open-concept layout. Gourmet Kitchen: Equipped with thick granite countertops, a stone backsplash, stainless steel appliances, and a massive social island. True Guest Suites: Every bedroom features a private ensuite bath, offering maximum privacy for family or visitors. Outdoor Sanctuary: Low-maintenance paver stones, a spacious covered patio, and a pool designed for sunset gatherings against the Black Mountain silhouette. The "Carefree" Lifestyle: Located in a premium gated enclave, you are steps away from world-class golf, boutique shopping, and fine dining.

19. 2026-01-02
    historical
20. 2025-11-14
    price $1,599,900
21. 2025-10-16
    price $1,649,900
22. 2025-09-01
    listed $1,699,900 Active
23. 2025-06-01
    historical
24. 2025-03-20
    price $1,699,900
25. 2025-02-25
    listed $1,750,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,565 · $297/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,899 · $825/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,335/yr (+$528/mo · 177.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $143,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$84,018
• − Property taxes: −$3,565
• − Insurance: −$7,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,466
• − Management: −$11,466
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$43,633
• Taxable loss: −$19,820
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,757
• After-tax cash flow: $11,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Carefree

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #9958

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carefree, AZ
• City population: 3,452
• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Current HPI: 332.8138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $1,499,900 ARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $1,525,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $1,550,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $1,600,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $1,599,900 ARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $1,649,900 ARMLS
• 2025-09-01 Listed $1,699,900 ARMLS
• 2025-06-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $1,699,900 ARMLS
• 2025-02-25 Listed $1,750,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,565 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.