14930 SE 2nd Ln · Williston Highlands, FL 32696

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,865 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1995 1.37 ac lot Est $134k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AFFORDABLY ADORABLE! This manufactured log sided home has over 1,500 sq ft of living space, a great island kitchen, fireplace, a florida room and a nice covered front porch to enjoy the view. Perfect for a young family or a seasonal home. 1.37 nice wooded acres. Furnishings are negotiable. Easy commute to Gainesville or Ocala. Convenient to Golf Course, grocery and drug stores.

Key facts

• 1.37 acres
• Well septic electric
• Storage shed

Tags

• 1.37 ACRES
• COZY FIREPLACE
• STORAGE SHED
• WELL SEPTIC ELECTRIC
• EASY ACCESS TO NATURAL SPRINGS
• NO HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $686 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 6.0% in Williston Highlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#851 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Levy (rural): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 359 active listings in the ZIP; 199 units permitted in Levy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Levy County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $129k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,065 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.81%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $134,280
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14930 SE 2nd Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,865 (0%)	1mo	$133,500	$72	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $22,788
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $76,020
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32696

• Home prices YoY: -6.2%
• Active inventory: 359
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,878 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $798/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $686

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,009

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $759	-5% $723	+0% $686	+5% $650	+10% $613
Rent	-10% $538	-5% $612	+0% $686	+5% $761	+10% $835
Rate	-1.0pp $751	-0.5pp $719	base $686	+0.5pp $653	+1.0pp $619

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $129,000 Active
3. 2024-07-26
   soldstatus $56,801
4. 2008-08-07
   soldstatus $85,000
5. 2008-08-06
   soldstatus $85,000 380-char remark

   Show marketing remark (380 chars)

   AFFORDABLY ADORABLE! This manufactured log sided home has over 1,500 sq ft of living space, a great island kitchen, fireplace, a florida room and a nice covered front porch to enjoy the view. Perfect for a young family or a seasonal home. 1.37 nice wooded acres. Furnishings are negotiable. Easy commute to Gainesville or Ocala. Convenient to Golf Course, grocery and drug stores.

6. 2008-05-03
   listed $88,000 380-char remark

   Show marketing remark (380 chars)

   AFFORDABLY ADORABLE! This manufactured log sided home has over 1,500 sq ft of living space, a great island kitchen, fireplace, a florida room and a nice covered front porch to enjoy the view. Perfect for a young family or a seasonal home. 1.37 nice wooded acres. Furnishings are negotiable. Easy commute to Gainesville or Ocala. Convenient to Golf Course, grocery and drug stores.

7. 2001-12-17
   soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $798 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,071 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$272/yr (+$23/mo · 34.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$798
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,802
• − Management: −$1,802
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $6,503
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,561
• After-tax cash flow: $6,677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Levy
• NCES district ID: 1201140
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,254
• Composite: 36.42/100
• National rank: #4673
• State rank: #54 of 73 in FL

Livability — Williston Highlands

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #851
• US rank: #21745

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Williston Highlands, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,532

Population outlook (Levy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,536 people
• By 2030: 34,498 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 30,294 · -17.1%
• By 2050: 26,368 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 19,003 · -48.0%
• By 2100: 13,169 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 13% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Levy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.3) · D 24.6% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -50.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.3 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+32.2 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.99%
• Current HPI: 335.7751
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+115.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $56,801 Public Records
• 2008-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2008-08-06 Sold (MLS) $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-05-03 Listed $88,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $798 · +34.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.