Franklin Plan · Willis, TX 77318

$254,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,892 sqft · SingleFamily · 240 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

We would love to welcome you to The Franklin, located in our Lexington Heights community! This striking two-story home spans 1,892 square feet and presents five bedrooms, two-and-a-half bathrooms, and a two-car garage. The brightly lit foyer welcomes viewers as they enter the home, its beautiful vinyl floors beckoning guests towards the spacious living and dining area. A powder room and a storage closet sit conveniently near the end of the foyer. Upon entering the spacious living and dining area, the open concept plan for this area of the home allows natural light to adorn the room with comforting rays of sunlight. The kitchen, which is open to the living and dining area, is equipped with stainless-steel appliances, a tall pantry, pretty cabinets, and an island. This home provides ample space for hosting gatherings with loved ones or relaxing after a bustling day. The carpeted stairway is positioned near the end of the foyer and leads to the second story of the home. At the top of the stairs, you will notice a carpeted hallway branching away from the staircase. The hallway leads to three secondary bedrooms, the utility room, and the secondary bathroom. While each secondary bedroom is finished with soft carpet flooring, a tall closet, and a bright window, the utility room provides space for a washer, dryer, and some storage items. The secondary bathroom is complete with vinyl flooring and a tile tub/shower combo.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 239 days

🏗️ New construction. The $254,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $284,921.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W Lloyd Meador El (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 617 students, 43% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1387 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,391 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.63%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,921
• List price: $254,990
• Delta: -10.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12014 Curlin Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,785 (-6%)	3mo	$284,900	$160	81
12030 Curlin Dr	0.05mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,012 (+6%)	3mo	$299,900	$149	78
11679 Ruffian Dr	0.54mi	5/2.5	1,892 (0%)	1mo	$253,990	$134	74
11650 Ruffian Dr	0.68mi	5/2.5	1,892 (0%)	0mo	$244,990	$129	68
11902 Wisteria Meadows Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,984 (+5%)	3mo	$309,990	$156	63
12276 Lexington Heights Dr	0.62mi	5/2.0	1,818 (-4%)	0mo	$278,990	$153	62
11934 Wisteria Meadows Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,003 (+6%)	0mo	$279,900	$140	61
12108 Alydar Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,726 (-9%)	0mo	$289,990	$168	56
12227 Danza Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,084 (+10%)	0mo	$309,982	$149	46
12292 Lexington Hts	0.62mi	5/3.5	2,129 (+12%)	1mo	$285,990	$134	46
12219 Danza Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,125 (+12%)	0mo	$314,358	$148	42
12243 Danza Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,125 (+12%)	3mo	$298,643	$141	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-59,935
• Equity at exit: $42,483

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-87,604
• Equity at exit: $24,635

Cash invested: $79,778 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 42 active · 26 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.3 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $293,615 ($152/sqft)
• Median days on market: 65 d
• This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1387
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,355 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,274/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,492

Max offer price $269,249

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $-10	+0% $-108	+5% $-207	+10% $-305
Rent	-10% $-294	-5% $-201	+0% $-108	+5% $-15	+10% $78
Rate	-1.0pp $35	-0.5pp $-36	base $-108	+0.5pp $-182	+1.0pp $-257

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,230
• Closing costs: $8,548
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12983 Skyline Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1691	$2,250	$1.33	66d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $254,990 Active 240 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $254,990 Active 238 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $254,990 Active 237 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $254,990 Active 236 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $254,990 Active 235 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $254,990 Active 232 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $254,990 Active 230 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $254,990 Active 229 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $254,990 Active 227 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $254,990 Active 225 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $254,990 Active 224 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $254,990 Active 223 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $254,990 Active 222 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $254,990 Active 221 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $254,990 Active 219 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $254,990 Active 218 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $254,990 Active 217 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $254,990 Active 216 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $254,990 Active 215 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $254,990 Active 214 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $254,990 Active 213 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $254,990 Active 212 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $254,990 Active 211 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $254,990 Active 210 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $254,990 Active 208 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $254,990 Active 207 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $254,990 Active 206 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $254,990 Active 205 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $254,990 Active 204 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $254,990 Active 203 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $254,990 Active 202 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $254,990 Active 201 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $254,990 Active 200 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $254,990 Active 199 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $254,990 Active 198 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $254,990 Active 197 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $254,990 Active 195 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $254,990 Active 193 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $254,990 Active 192 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $254,990 Active 189 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $254,990 Active 188 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $254,990 Active 187 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $254,990 Active 186 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $254,990 Active 184 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $254,990 Active 180 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $254,990 Active 179 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $254,990 Active 178 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $254,990 Active 175 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,990 Active 174 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,990 Active 173 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,960
• − Property taxes: −$4,274
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,261
• − Management: −$2,261
• − Depreciation: −$8,289
• Taxable loss: −$6,205
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,489
• After-tax cash flow: $190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home in Franklin Plan, Conroe TX, is in good condition with modern finishes and well-maintained landscaping. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces utility costs for tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary W Lloyd Meador El F TX #1,155/4,322 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Robert P Brabham Middle F TX #756/1,662 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High Willis H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 0% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $254,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $253,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Listed $252,990 Zillow