6306 Shaw Rd · Alfred, NY 14803

$160,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,832 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1940 0.30 ac lot $87/sqft · 8% below area Est $173k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tenant Occupied; please give 48 hours notice for appointments Come make this home your own. .. . Old charm just waiting for your touch to bring it all back. .. walk into the front foyer with double pocket doors leading into the front living room. Family room off the living room also has double doors to separate the rooms. Spacious dining area for gatherings. Kitchen with additional storage in the back laundry/pantry room. Full bath with tub. Also access to basement from Pantry/laundry room. There is a bedroom or office space off kitchen. Upstairs there are 3 bedrooms with closets, and one other room that would also make a nice office space. Full bath with tub/shower upstairs. Solar panels on side of home help add extra heat source for the house. There are two lots that make the . 69 acres. (second lot 022089-152-10-1-2.1 lot is . 3 acres 78 x 173) zoning is light industrial district Not in a flood zone.

Key facts

• Double pocket doors
• Two lots
• Access to basement

Tags

• DOUBLE POCKET DOORS
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE
• ACCESS TO BASEMENT
• SOLAR PANELS
• TWO LOTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($76/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#110 in NY, #1,824 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Alfred-Almond Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #345 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $134,118 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.17%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,305
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -7.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6280 Shaw Rd	0.10mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,733 (-5%)	5mo	$45,000	$26	73
6172 Depot St	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,950 (+6%)	22mo	$140,000	$72	53
566 State Route 244 St #570	0.29mi	4/2.0	2,062 (+13%)	24mo	$200,000	$97	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $12,783
• Equity at exit: $64,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $53,807
• Equity at exit: $94,236

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14803

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,341 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,770/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,333

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-12
   days on market $160,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $160,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $160,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $160,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $160,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $160,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-03-03
    listed $160,000 Active 923-char remark

    Show marketing remark (923 chars)

    Tenant Occupied; please give 48 hours notice for appointments Come make this home your own. .. . Old charm just waiting for your touch to bring it all back. .. walk into the front foyer with double pocket doors leading into the front living room. Family room off the living room also has double doors to separate the rooms. Spacious dining area for gatherings. Kitchen with additional storage in the back laundry/pantry room. Full bath with tub. Also access to basement from Pantry/laundry room. There is a bedroom or office space off kitchen. Upstairs there are 3 bedrooms with closets, and one other room that would also make a nice office space. Full bath with tub/shower upstairs. Solar panels on side of home help add extra heat source for the house. There are two lots that make the . 69 acres. (second lot 022089-152-10-1-2.1 lot is . 3 acres 78 x 173) zoning is light industrial district Not in a flood zone.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,770 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,237 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$467/yr (+$39/mo · 26.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,094
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,770
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,288
• − Management: −$1,288
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,668
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$640
• After-tax cash flow: $716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alfred-Almond Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602700
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,682
• Composite: 44.62/100
• National rank: #2772
• State rank: #345 of 590 in NY

Livability — Alfred

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #1824

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,118
• Population (ZIP): 1,491

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Current HPI: 235.4083
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Listed $160,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-6.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,770 · -53.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.