931 Lincoln St · Babson Park, FL 33827

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 644 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1960 9,226 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special – Value-Add Opportunity! Offered AS-IS, this property presents a prime opportunity for investors seeking their next fix-and-flip or rental hold. Located on a quiet residential street just minutes from Webber International University, this asset is well-positioned for student or long-term rental demand. Strong upside with renovation — perfect for cash buyers or experienced investors looking to force appreciation and maximize returns. No HOA, flexible exit strategies, and immediate equity potential once improved. Priced for a quick sale. Seller motivated. Buyer to verify all facts, zoning, and intended use.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Renovated
• Electric fireplace

Tags

• RENOVATED
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• NEW ROOF
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEAR CROOKED LAKE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Water and sewer available and connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; East-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a parcel under 1/4 acre
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.21 acre (66 x 152)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room electric fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#198 in FL, #3,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $140k implies a 180% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,801 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.73%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $92,281
• Equity at exit: $126,033

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.61×
• Total profit: $259,121
• Equity at exit: $271,795

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33827

• Home prices YoY: 16.6%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,799/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,192

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $332	-5% $292	+0% $252	+5% $213	+10% $173
Rent	-10% $133	-5% $193	+0% $252	+5% $312	+10% $372
Rate	-1.0pp $323	-0.5pp $288	base $252	+0.5pp $216	+1.0pp $179

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $139,900 Pending 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-05-20
   price $139,900
5. 2026-05-15
   listed $149,900 Active
6. 2026-02-18
   soldstatus $50,000
7. 2026-02-02
   soldstatus $60,000 Closed 644-char remark

   Show marketing remark (644 chars)

   Investor Special – Value-Add Opportunity! Offered AS-IS, this property presents a prime opportunity for investors seeking their next fix-and-flip or rental hold. Located on a quiet residential street just minutes from Webber International University, this asset is well-positioned for student or long-term rental demand. Strong upside with renovation — perfect for cash buyers or experienced investors looking to force appreciation and maximize returns. No HOA, flexible exit strategies, and immediate equity potential once improved. Priced for a quick sale. Seller motivated. Buyer to verify all facts, zoning, and intended use.

8. 2026-01-22
   status Pending 644-char remark

   Show marketing remark (644 chars)

   Investor Special – Value-Add Opportunity! Offered AS-IS, this property presents a prime opportunity for investors seeking their next fix-and-flip or rental hold. Located on a quiet residential street just minutes from Webber International University, this asset is well-positioned for student or long-term rental demand. Strong upside with renovation — perfect for cash buyers or experienced investors looking to force appreciation and maximize returns. No HOA, flexible exit strategies, and immediate equity potential once improved. Priced for a quick sale. Seller motivated. Buyer to verify all facts, zoning, and intended use.

9. 2026-01-09
   listed $69,900 Active 644-char remark

   Show marketing remark (644 chars)

   Investor Special – Value-Add Opportunity! Offered AS-IS, this property presents a prime opportunity for investors seeking their next fix-and-flip or rental hold. Located on a quiet residential street just minutes from Webber International University, this asset is well-positioned for student or long-term rental demand. Strong upside with renovation — perfect for cash buyers or experienced investors looking to force appreciation and maximize returns. No HOA, flexible exit strategies, and immediate equity potential once improved. Priced for a quick sale. Seller motivated. Buyer to verify all facts, zoning, and intended use.

10. 2025-11-13
    historical
11. 2025-11-05
    listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,799 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,799 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,141
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,799
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,451
• − Management: −$1,451
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $834
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$200
• After-tax cash flow: $2,829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Babson Park

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #198
• US rank: #3133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Babson Park, FL
• Population (ZIP): 2,438

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 63.49%
• Current HPI: 446.51
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+74.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2026-02-02 Sold (MLS) $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Listed $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+40.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,799 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.