2820 N El Dorado St · Stockton, CA 95204

$241,800

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 518 Days on market

Built 1927 3,625 sqft lot $239/sqft · 31% below area Est $349k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 3,625 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1927

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $242k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-147 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (10.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Stockton Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #295 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 139 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 518 days — a 12% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,346 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 518 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.60%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,756
• List price: $241,800
• Delta: -30.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
64 E Noble St	0.09mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,032 (+2%)	1mo	$374,950	$363	85
116 E Noble St	0.09mi	2/1.0	912 (-10%)	2mo	$325,000	$356	78
540 E Sonoma Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0	1,023 (+1%)	5mo	$245,000	$239	75
44 W Alpine Ave	0.26mi	2/1.0	1,081 (+7%)	2mo	$340,000	$315	75
312 Noble St	0.18mi	2/2.0	912 (-10%)	2mo	$345,000	$378	69
140 E Sonoma Ave	0.16mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,131 (+12%)	1mo	$345,000	$305	65
133 W Mckenzie Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,014 (+0%)	4mo	$370,000	$365	64
1418 N Center St	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,010 (-0%)	2mo	$140,000	$139	64
4119 N Commerce St	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,023 (+1%)	1mo	$369,000	$361	59
283 E Churchill St	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,014 (+0%)	7mo	$374,900	$370	57
3978 N American St	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,001 (-1%)	3mo	$390,000	$390	56
32 E Mckenzie Ave	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,116 (+10%)	3mo	$330,000	$296	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-49,703
• Equity at exit: $36,053

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-60,080
• Equity at exit: $20,906

Cash invested: $67,704 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95204

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 139
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,853 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,268
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,906/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,039

Max offer price $215,882

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-10	-5% $-78	+0% $-147	+5% $-215	+10% $-284
Rent	-10% $-293	-5% $-220	+0% $-147	+5% $-74	+10% $0
Rate	-1.0pp $-25	-0.5pp $-85	base $-147	+0.5pp $-209	+1.0pp $-273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,450
• Closing costs: $7,254
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2704 N Hunter St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,795	$2.18	24d	1	0.10mi
220 E Ellis St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	940	$1,495	$1.59	44d	1	0.17mi
2424 N Center St Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1158	$2,995	$2.59	44d	1	0.19mi
325 E Mariposa Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1188	$2,000	$1.68	24d	1	0.21mi
440 E Arcade St Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	962	$2,350	$2.44	44d	1	0.29mi
32 E Wyandotte St Apt D Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	44d	1	0.41mi
44 E Alder St Stockton, CA	1.0	2.0	829	$1,300	$1.57	24d	1	0.53mi
1509 N Edison St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	24d	1	0.84mi
1503 N Edison St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	15d	1	0.85mi
3520 San Mateo Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	1.0	1446	$2,200	$1.52	24d	1	0.87mi
328 Northbank Ct #41 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5	885	$1,600	$1.81	19d	1	0.93mi
945 N El Dorado St Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	635	$1,450	$2.28	24d	6	1.05mi
830 N Van Buren St Unit B Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	870	$1,495	$1.72	4d	1	1.16mi
843 N Lincoln St Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	969	$1,195	$1.23	44d	1	1.17mi
3939 N Pershing Ave Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	775	$1,350	$1.74	4d	4	1.20mi
126 E Jamestown St Unit 230 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,095	$1.56	44d	1	1.20mi
126 E Jamestown St Apt 221 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,195	$1.59	24d	1	1.20mi
126 E Jamestown St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,195	$1.59	44d	1	1.20mi
4433 Continental Way Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	786	$2,662	$3.38	3d	23	1.22mi
4475 La Cresta Way #2 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,950	$2.32	44d	1	1.22mi
1526 N Sierra Nevada St Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,600	$2.54	24d	1	1.23mi
4401 Manchester Ave Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	925	$1,474	$1.59	22d	1	1.25mi
4401 Manchester Ave Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	925	$1,474	$1.59	44d	2	1.25mi
1020 Rose Marie Ln Stockton, CA	3.0	1.5	1302	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	1.29mi
520 N Monroe St Unit 520 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,025	$1.14	44d	1	1.36mi
1759 Middlefield Ave Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	920	$2,100	$2.28	4d	1	1.40mi
610 E Oak St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	930	$1,550	$1.67	24d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $241,800 Active 518 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $241,800 Active 517 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $241,800 Active 516 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $241,800 Active 515 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $241,800 Active 513 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $241,800 Active 510 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $241,800 Active 509 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $241,800 Active 508 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $241,800 Active 507 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $241,800 Active 504 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $241,800 Active 503 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $241,800 Active 502 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $241,800 Active 501 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $241,800 Active 500 DOM
15. 2026-04-07
    price $241,800
16. 2025-10-16
    price $254,200
17. 2025-08-04
    price $300,700
18. 2025-01-16
    listed $255,315 Active
19. 2018-09-21
    soldstatus $215,000
20. 2002-10-30
    soldstatus $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,906 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,906 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,545
• − Property taxes: −$2,906
• − Insurance: −$1,209
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,779
• − Management: −$1,779
• − Depreciation: −$7,034
• Taxable loss: −$6,011
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,443
• After-tax cash flow: $-318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $37,563
• Composite: 28.65/100
• National rank: #6701
• State rank: #295 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,035
• Household income: $75,548
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1434.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Two or more races 18% Asian 9% Black 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Russian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -386.16%
• Current HPI: 333.3367
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.37%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+86.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $241,800 CRMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $254,200 CRMLS
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $300,700 CRMLS
• 2025-01-16 Listed $255,315 CRMLS
• 2018-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2002-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,906 · -23.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.