128 Pilot · Cibolo, TX 78108

$250,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,167 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 210 Days on market

Built 2004 7,797 sqft lot Est $321k · 22% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

* WATCH THE VIDEO BELOW IN "more facts and features" DROPDOWN . BEAUTIFUL 4 BEDROOM 2 AND 1/2 BATH HOME IN FALCON RIDGE SUBDIVISION IN CIBOLO. ALL BEDROOMS ARE UPSTAIRS INCLUDING THE LAUNDRY ROOM. THE PRIMARY BEDROOM INCLUDES A LARGE BATHROOM WITH A SHOWER, SEPERATE GARDEN TUB AND A DOUBLE VANITY SINK. OPEN KITCHEN WITH AN ISLAND. FORMAL DINING AREA. CERAMIC TILE ON THE MAIN FLOOR. EAT-IN KITCHEN AREA. OUTDOOR HAS A COVERED PATIO, PLUS ADDITIONAL OPEN PATIO AREA

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Open kitchen
• 7,797 sq ft lot

Tags

• LAUNDRY ROOM UPSTAIRS
• OPEN KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• ADDITIONAL OPEN PATIO AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment resources available
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $200 semi-annually; Association transfer fee $250; Community amenities include pool and park/playground

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; City garbage service; Electric service by GVEC
• Home design: Pre-owned single-family home; Front faces south
• Construction: Approximately 22 years old; Brick, wood and siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio slab; Privacy fence; Double pane windows; Mature trees; Corner lot; Level lot; Street paved with curbs, gutters, sidewalks and streetlights; Asphalt city street

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range; Dishwasher; Island; Ice maker connection; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on upper level (15 x 14); Bedroom 2 (13 x 10); Bedroom 3 (11 x 11); Bedroom 4 (12 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: Total 3 bathrooms (2 full, 1 half); Master bath with separate tub and shower, double vanity, garden tub (10 x 10)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Disposal; Smoke alarm; Security system (owned); Garage door opener; City garbage service; 1 living area; Separate dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; All bedrooms on upper level; High ceilings; Cable TV available; High speed internet; Laundry room (upper level); Walk-in closets; Attic access only; All window coverings remain; Ice maker connection; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Laundry on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in Cibolo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#261 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Schertz-Cibolo-U City ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #152 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Watts El (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 593 students, 44% FRL); Ray D Corbett J H (math 52% / reading 49%, grade C, #333 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,188 students, 40% FRL); Samuel Clemens H S (math 45% / reading 60%, grade C-, #444 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 2,544 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 761 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,885 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.11%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $320,716
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Cloud Xing	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,062 (-5%)	1mo	$320,000	$155	71
342 Notch Leaf	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,138 (-1%)	2mo	$290,000	$136	68
210 Rosegate Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,340 (+8%)	1mo	$299,500	$128	67
244 Turkey Tree	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,941 (-10%)	2mo	$310,000	$160	66
2815 Wild Cherry	0.72mi	4/2.0	2,204 (+2%)	2mo	$339,000	$154	62
2817 Lotus Park	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,203 (+2%)	2mo	$239,900	$109	57
121 Royal Troon	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,361 (+9%)	2mo	$350,000	$148	54
229 Notch Leaf	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,849 (-15%)	2mo	$300,000	$162	50
113 Winter Frost	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,445 (+13%)	0mo	$339,900	$139	47
1020 Grey Feather	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,918 (-12%)	3mo	$199,900	$104	45
1641 Ebony Ln	0.75mi	4/2.5	2,393 (+10%)	1mo	$360,000	$150	45
200 Nandina Ct	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,462 (+14%)	1mo	$350,000	$142	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.47% appreciation · 2.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-14,425
• Equity at exit: $78,528

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $7,221
• Equity at exit: $99,271

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78108

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 761
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,169 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$447 /mo · $5,362/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,399

Max offer price $217,915

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-40	-5% $-111	+0% $-182	+5% $-252	+10% $-323
Rent	-10% $-353	-5% $-267	+0% $-182	+5% $-96	+10% $-10
Rate	-1.0pp $-56	-0.5pp $-118	base $-182	+0.5pp $-246	+1.0pp $-312

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Lindy Hls Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	2790	$2,100	$0.75	25d	1	0.04mi
229 Spice Oak Ln Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	1882	$1,895	$1.01	0d	1	0.20mi
314 Scotch Rose Ln Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	1719	$1,800	$1.05	25d	1	0.30mi
153 Bentwood Ranch Dr Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,695	$1.10	25d	1	0.37mi
146 Bentwood Ranch Dr Cibolo, TX	4.0	3.5	2496	$1,946	$0.78	0d	1	0.38mi
237 Winter Frost Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	2605	$2,075	$0.80	4d	1	0.41mi
133 Firebird Run Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.5	2167	$2,000	$0.92	25d	1	0.41mi
509 Sea Headrig Dr Cibolo, TX	4.0	3.0	2731	$2,200	$0.81	25d	1	0.49mi
417 Turnberry Way Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	2480	$2,300	$0.93	22d	1	0.50mi
226 Maidstone Cv Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	2710	$2,200	$0.81	25d	1	0.63mi
137 Hidden Fawn Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.5	2232	$1,975	$0.88	25d	1	0.73mi
2921 Candleberry Dr Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1871	$1,850	$0.99	5d	1	0.92mi
147 Brookview Cibolo, TX	4.0	3.0	2500	$2,250	$0.90	25d	1	1.13mi
1136 Berry Creek Dr Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1723	$2,000	$1.16	4d	1	1.14mi
2813 Kline Cir Schertz, TX	4.0	2.5	2130	$1,800	$0.85	6d	1	1.19mi
2413 Star Light Ln Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,800	$1.28	25d	1	1.20mi
237 Hinsdale Run Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.5	2022	$2,200	$1.09	23d	1	1.20mi
2801 Hillview Ln Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,745	$1.17	25d	1	1.20mi
2713 Lockwood Ln Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,595	$1.12	4d	1	1.23mi
2805 Berry Way Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1690	$1,850	$1.09	25d	1	1.24mi
213 Gravel Gray Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	1651	$1,950	$1.18	0d	1	1.25mi
132 Niemietz Cv Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,900	$1.19	25d	1	1.26mi
213 Lieck Cv Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	2525	$2,495	$0.99	0d	1	1.26mi
164 Springtree Holw Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$1,925	$0.89	18d	1	1.27mi
181 Harley Hay Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$1,995	$1.22	25d	1	1.27mi
137 Niemietz Cv Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	2419	$2,200	$0.91	25d	1	1.29mi
513 Chelson Hunt Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	2453	$2,800	$1.14	25d	1	1.33mi
1707 Mountain Brk Schertz, TX	3.0	2.5	2322	$1,925	$0.83	25d	1	1.36mi
1060 Richmond Dr Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1774	$1,550	$0.87	6d	1	1.38mi
821 Dimrock Schertz, TX	4.0	2.5	2509	$2,000	$0.80	16d	1	1.42mi
721 Wooded Trl Schertz, TX	4.0	2.5	2426	$2,195	$0.90	0d	1	1.48mi
1604 Canyon Oak Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1999	$3,950	$1.98	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $250,000 Pending 210 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $250,000 Active Option 209 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $250,000 Active Option 208 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $250,000 Active Option 207 DOM
5. 2026-05-23
   historical Active Option
6. 2026-04-15
   price $250,000
7. 2026-03-25
   status Back on Market
8. 2026-03-20
   historical Active Option
9. 2026-03-16
   price $270,000
10. 2026-01-26
    price $280,000
11. 2025-11-03
    listed $290,000 New
12. 2025-10-31
    historical
13. 2025-10-01
    status Back on Market
14. 2025-09-30
    historical
15. 2025-07-09
    price $289,900
16. 2025-04-25
    listed $295,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,362 · $447/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,362 · $447/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$5,362
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,082
• − Management: −$2,082
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$6,423
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,541
• After-tax cash flow: $-638/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Schertz-Cibolo-U City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839480
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,790
• Composite: 44.02/100
• National rank: #2886
• State rank: #152 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cibolo

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #6177

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cibolo, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 49,784
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,784
• Household income: $113,004
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 521.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 22% Black 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Vietnamese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.47%
• Current HPI: 182.7296
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.42%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $250,000 LERA
• 2026-03-25 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-03-20 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $270,000 LERA
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $280,000 LERA
• 2025-11-03 Listed $290,000 LERA
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-10-01 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $289,900 LERA
• 2025-04-25 Listed $295,000 LERA

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,362 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.