87 Mount Matterhorn Ln · Toms River, NJ 08753

$278,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1968 5,227 sqft lot Est $270k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NICE CAPRI MODEL/ENCLOSED PATIO WITH PRIVATE YARD/PARTIAL NEWER WINDOWS/ FULL APPLIANCE PKG/WINDOW TREATMENTS/PADDLE FANS/NEWER ROOF/LITE OAK KIT. CABINETS/SELLER NEVER USED SPRINKLER SYSTEM (AS IS COND)/HOUSE VACANT WITH LOCK BOX/OIL TANK INS. TRANSFERABLE TO SELLER

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Pool
• Built 1968

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fees (HC Silverton Phase II) — $75 quarterly; HOA includes common area and pool; Community room, pool, bocci court

Exterior

• Parking: No garage spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Model: Capri; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Fireplace (1); Washer and dryer included
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($43/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 424 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask is 171% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $104k; list at $279k implies a 168% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,425 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $270,144
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23 Mount Dashan Ln	0.32mi	2/1.0	1,092 (+2%)	1mo	$332,500	$304	81
15 Mount Logan Ln	0.15mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-7%)	1mo	$375,000	$375	81
1873 Hovsons Blvd	0.20mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-7%)	0mo	$227,500	$228	79
10 Acapulco Pl	0.64mi	2/1.0	1,072 (0%)	1mo	$269,900	$252	69
2241 Mount Hope Ln	0.69mi	2/1.5	1,072 (0%)	2mo	$270,000	$252	64
1010 Fife Ct Unit B	0.65mi	2/1.0	1,036 (-3%)	1mo	$243,000	$235	64
1108A Argyll Cir	0.62mi	2/1.0	982 (-8%)	1mo	$246,000	$251	56
1134A Argyll Cir	0.60mi	2/1.0	982 (-8%)	2mo	$239,000	$243	56
1190B Clydebank Ct	0.65mi	2/1.0	982 (-8%)	1mo	$250,000	$255	55
1190A Clydebank Ct	0.65mi	2/1.0	982 (-8%)	1mo	$260,000	$265	55
1568 Mount Everest Ln	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-7%)	0mo	$315,000	$315	54
1236B Hamilton Ct	0.69mi	2/1.0	982 (-8%)	2mo	$180,000	$183	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-48,520
• Equity at exit: $41,585

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-56,100
• Equity at exit: $24,114

Cash invested: $78,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08753

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,374 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,220/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,370

Max offer price $278,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $161	-5% $82	+0% $4	+5% $-75	+10% $-154
Rent	-10% $-184	-5% $-90	+0% $4	+5% $97	+10% $191
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $74	base $4	+0.5pp $-69	+1.0pp $-142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,725
• Closing costs: $8,367
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1042C Aberdeen Dr Unit C Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,000	$2.04	4d	1	0.86mi
824A Balmoral Ct Unit A Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,200	$2.24	19d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $278,900 Coming Soon 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $278,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $278,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $278,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,220 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,082 · $424/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,862/yr (+$155/mo · 57.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,623
• − Property taxes: −$3,220
• − Insurance: −$1,394
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,279
• − Management: −$2,279
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,113
• Taxable loss: −$4,718
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,132
• After-tax cash flow: $1,175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 65,448
• Household income: $105,224
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 828.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -527.36%
• Current HPI: 374.5075
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+533.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Coming Soon $278,900 MOMLS
• 2002-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records
• 2002-08-14 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2002-08-06 Listed $102,800 MOMLS
• 1999-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $64,900 Public Records
• 1999-10-14 Sold (MLS) $64,900 MOMLS
• 1999-09-01 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1999-08-12 Listed $64,900 MOMLS
• 1998-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1993-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,220 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.