5715 Belaire Cir · Canyon Creek, TX 76048

$45,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1987 0.35 ac lot $35/sqft · 61% below area $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 47% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

VALUE IN THE LAND! Priced to sell, this .352-acre homesite is a prime opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers ready to build their dream home in the gated Canyon Creek POA. A manufactured home currently sits on the property and may require removal,haul-off, making this an excellent canvas for new construction. Enjoy an amenity-rich lifestyle with Boat Ramp, Club House, Community Dock, Community Pool, Fishing, Gated, Guarded Entrance, Lake, Park, Playground, Pool, Tennis Court(s), plus multiple community boat docks for easy lake access. Convenient Granbury location with plenty of space to design the home you want— bring your plans and make it yours!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Community dock
• Club house

Tags

• BOAT RAMP
• CLUB HOUSE
• COMMUNITY DOCK
• COMMUNITY POOL
• FISHING
• GATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 41.4% vs local median 4.7% in Canyon Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,102 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, crime F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (47%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 125.39%
• DSCR: 6.58
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $114,175
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -60.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2400 Creek Dr	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,249 (-4%)	7mo	$65,000	$52	66
5730 Black Pine Cir	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+6%)	11mo	$75,000	$55	65
2405 Williamson Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+12%)	20mo	$175,000	$120	55
3200 Crystal Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+11%)	14mo	$189,900	$132	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.77×
• Total profit: $72,674
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.37×
• Total profit: $155,900
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,101 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $919/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $1,317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $435

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5522 Firewood Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$2,400	$1.67	43d	1	0.18mi
5619 Cold Water Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.5	1801	$2,090	$1.16	43d	1	0.25mi
5105 Waterbury Ct Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1727	$2,300	$1.33	24d	1	0.43mi
2500 Houston Dr Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	1770	$2,400	$1.36	4d	1	0.50mi
2524 Creek Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,150	$1.33	2d	1	0.51mi
5621 San Jacinto Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1477	$2,100	$1.42	7d	1	0.62mi
5718 Barkridge Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,055	$1.42	3d	1	0.63mi
2213 Beverly Dr Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	1850	$2,300	$1.24	24d	1	0.70mi
2414 Forest Hill Ln Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,150	$1.44	3d	1	0.88mi
2700 Steepleridge Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,895	$1.32	7d	1	0.91mi
4710 Llano St Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,775	$1.22	43d	1	0.92mi
3705 Mandy Dr #2 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,400	$1.21	24d	1	1.23mi
3712 Mandy Dr Unit 2 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,300	$1.12	22d	1	1.26mi
3712 Mandy Dr Unit 1 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1112	$1,300	$1.17	18d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $45,000 Pending 57 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $45,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-05-14
   price $45,000 669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   VALUE IN THE LAND! Priced to sell, this .352-acre homesite is a prime opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers ready to build their dream home in the gated Canyon Creek POA. A manufactured home currently sits on the property and may require removal,haul-off, making this an excellent canvas for new construction. Enjoy an amenity-rich lifestyle with Boat Ramp, Club House, Community Dock, Community Pool, Fishing, Gated, Guarded Entrance, Lake, Park, Playground, Pool, Tennis Court(s), plus multiple community boat docks for easy lake access. Convenient Granbury location with plenty of space to design the home you want— bring your plans and make it yours!

4. 2026-05-01
   price $55,000 669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   VALUE IN THE LAND! Priced to sell, this .352-acre homesite is a prime opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers ready to build their dream home in the gated Canyon Creek POA. A manufactured home currently sits on the property and may require removal,haul-off, making this an excellent canvas for new construction. Enjoy an amenity-rich lifestyle with Boat Ramp, Club House, Community Dock, Community Pool, Fishing, Gated, Guarded Entrance, Lake, Park, Playground, Pool, Tennis Court(s), plus multiple community boat docks for easy lake access. Convenient Granbury location with plenty of space to design the home you want— bring your plans and make it yours!

5. 2026-05-01
   status Active 669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   VALUE IN THE LAND! Priced to sell, this .352-acre homesite is a prime opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers ready to build their dream home in the gated Canyon Creek POA. A manufactured home currently sits on the property and may require removal,haul-off, making this an excellent canvas for new construction. Enjoy an amenity-rich lifestyle with Boat Ramp, Club House, Community Dock, Community Pool, Fishing, Gated, Guarded Entrance, Lake, Park, Playground, Pool, Tennis Court(s), plus multiple community boat docks for easy lake access. Convenient Granbury location with plenty of space to design the home you want— bring your plans and make it yours!

6. 2026-03-31
   status Pending 669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   VALUE IN THE LAND! Priced to sell, this .352-acre homesite is a prime opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers ready to build their dream home in the gated Canyon Creek POA. A manufactured home currently sits on the property and may require removal,haul-off, making this an excellent canvas for new construction. Enjoy an amenity-rich lifestyle with Boat Ramp, Club House, Community Dock, Community Pool, Fishing, Gated, Guarded Entrance, Lake, Park, Playground, Pool, Tennis Court(s), plus multiple community boat docks for easy lake access. Convenient Granbury location with plenty of space to design the home you want— bring your plans and make it yours!

7. 2026-03-16
   status Active 669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   VALUE IN THE LAND! Priced to sell, this .352-acre homesite is a prime opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers ready to build their dream home in the gated Canyon Creek POA. A manufactured home currently sits on the property and may require removal,haul-off, making this an excellent canvas for new construction. Enjoy an amenity-rich lifestyle with Boat Ramp, Club House, Community Dock, Community Pool, Fishing, Gated, Guarded Entrance, Lake, Park, Playground, Pool, Tennis Court(s), plus multiple community boat docks for easy lake access. Convenient Granbury location with plenty of space to design the home you want— bring your plans and make it yours!

8. 2026-02-13
   status Pending 669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   VALUE IN THE LAND! Priced to sell, this .352-acre homesite is a prime opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers ready to build their dream home in the gated Canyon Creek POA. A manufactured home currently sits on the property and may require removal,haul-off, making this an excellent canvas for new construction. Enjoy an amenity-rich lifestyle with Boat Ramp, Club House, Community Dock, Community Pool, Fishing, Gated, Guarded Entrance, Lake, Park, Playground, Pool, Tennis Court(s), plus multiple community boat docks for easy lake access. Convenient Granbury location with plenty of space to design the home you want— bring your plans and make it yours!

9. 2026-02-02
   listed $85,000 Active 669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   VALUE IN THE LAND! Priced to sell, this .352-acre homesite is a prime opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers ready to build their dream home in the gated Canyon Creek POA. A manufactured home currently sits on the property and may require removal,haul-off, making this an excellent canvas for new construction. Enjoy an amenity-rich lifestyle with Boat Ramp, Club House, Community Dock, Community Pool, Fishing, Gated, Guarded Entrance, Lake, Park, Playground, Pool, Tennis Court(s), plus multiple community boat docks for easy lake access. Convenient Granbury location with plenty of space to design the home you want— bring your plans and make it yours!

10. 1985-09-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $919 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $919 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$919
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,017
• − Management: −$2,017
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $16,062
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,855
• After-tax cash flow: $11,945/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Creek

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1102
• US rank: #19485

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Creek, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-47.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $45,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $55,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-16 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $85,000 NTREIS
• 1985-09-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $919 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.