110 Pedernales · Abilene, TX 79606

$465,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,186 sqft · Land · 79 Days on market

Built 2026 0.54 ac lot $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

owner-agent - Stop what you're doing and take a look at this! This stunning new home in Headwaters is now complete, featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, equipped with all the modern conveniences. This home boasts a high cathedral ceiling, tile flooring, quartz countertops, upgraded appliances, and a beautifully landscaped front yard with a sprinkler system. Plus, the builder has included spray foam insulation in the walls for enhanced energy efficiency. Book an appointment to see this remarkable home today!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Tile flooring
• Upgraded appliances

Tags

• HIGH CATHEDRAL CEILING
• TILE FLOORING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• UPGRADED APPLIANCES
• SPRAY FOAM INSULATION
• ENHANCED ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Special listing condition: Builder; Possession at closing/funding; All staging furniture and accessories excluded
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, Texas Vet, and VA loans
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (Headwaters HOA); Annual association fee: $250 (includes management fees); HOA management phone available

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (approx. 20' wide x 24' deep); 2 covered parking spaces; garage faces side
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Co-op electric; Co-op water; Curbs; Outside city limits / no city services; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence (attached: yes); One story; New construction completed in 2026; Deed and building restrictions; Subdivision: Headwaters Estates
• Construction: Brick and rock/stone exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built: 2026 (new construction - complete)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Privacy wood fencing; Cleared lot/vegetation

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Granite or natural stone counters; Walk-in pantry; Water line to refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on main level); Primary bedroom on main level with dual sinks, garden tub, separate shower, and walk-in closet
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Fireplace provides supplemental heat; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Decorative lighting; High-speed internet available; Kitchen island; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Fireplace (wood burning); One living area; One dining area; Room count: 8; Levels: One
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with built-in cabinets; Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $465k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-745 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $357k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $315k (32.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $315k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 6.7% in Abilene — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Wylie ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #32 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wylie West El (428 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 21% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+40.7%/yr); 288 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,151/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 1181% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($437k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $315,144 (32.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.87%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-106,076
• Equity at exit: $69,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-77,410
• Equity at exit: $40,205

Cash invested: $130,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79606

• Rents YoY: 40.7%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,151 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,439
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$581 /mo · $6,975/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$662
• Net cashflow: $-745

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,094

Max offer price $357,216

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,250
• Closing costs: $13,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
134 Pedernales Unit 136 Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	2798	$2,995	$1.07	20d	1	0.16mi
4426 Sierra Sunset Abilene, TX	4.0	3.0	2697	$4,500	$1.67	43d	1	0.64mi
7933 Hearne Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,695	$1.75	13d	1	0.93mi
4742 Kevin Ct Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1630	$3,400	$2.09	5d	1	0.95mi
8345 South Rdg Abilene, TX	4.0	2.5	2300	$4,000	$1.74	7d	1	1.10mi
7534 John Carroll Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1984	$2,795	$1.41	3d	1	1.22mi
7601 Thompson Pkwy Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1495	$2,795	$1.87	13d	1	1.25mi
5133 Bridle Path Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$2,595	$1.60	2d	1	1.28mi
5409 Wagon Wheel Ave Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1706	$2,795	$1.64	13d	1	1.31mi
5180 Western Plains Ave Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1718	$2,500	$1.46	5d	1	1.38mi
5280 Western Plains Ave Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1810	$3,095	$1.71	5d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   status Active
3. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-11
   price $459,900
5. 2026-03-11
   price $465,000
6. 2026-01-01
   listed $459,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,047
• − Property taxes: −$6,975
• − Insurance: −$2,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,025
• − Management: −$3,025
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$13,527
• Taxable loss: −$17,360
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,166
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wylie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846500
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,248
• Composite: 55.86/100
• National rank: #1206
• State rank: #32 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,182
• Household income: $79,196
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1181.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -167.33%
• Current HPI: 179.2555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 40.73%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-29 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $465,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $459,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $459,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+22.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $854 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.