15194 Wonderland Blvd · Mountain Gate, CA 96003

$350,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,471 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1950 1.00 ac lot $238/sqft · 21% above area Est $416k · 16% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unique corner lot opportunity with electric in place and a versatile structure ready for your vision. This residentially zoned parcel features electric already on site, along with a 400 sq ft block building topped with a durable metal roof--a solid foundation for a variety of potential uses. Positioned on a corner with a street light directly out front, the property offers convenient access and visibility. Historically, the site was used as an upholstery shop decades ago and was once associated with the neighboring home, though it has always remained a separately recognized legal lot. This could be a great opportunity for someone seeking a storage lot, hobby space, or future development potential, subject to buyer verification with the county regarding allowable uses. Bring your ideas--properties with this kind of flexibility and utility access don't come around often.

Key facts

• Rv and boat parking
• Flat usable acre
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• RV AND BOAT PARKING
• HARDWOOD AND LAMINATE FLOORING
• FLAT USABLE ACRE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Boat parking; Oversized parking; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Stucco construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 1-acre lot
• Exterior features: Level lot; Asphalt road access; Property has a view; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Evaporative cooling; Has cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Hardwood and carpet flooring; Living room wood-burning fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-461 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (36.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (36.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,255 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: cost of living D+, schools F, crime F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $237k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,373 (36.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.65%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $415,829
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -15.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-79,268
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-77,093
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,234 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,933/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,817

Max offer price $268,552

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 1155-char remark
2. 2026-04-16
   status Active 1005-char remark

   Show marketing remark (881 chars)

   Unique corner lot opportunity with electric in place and a versatile structure ready for your vision. This residentially zoned parcel features electric already on site, along with a 400 sq ft block building topped with a durable metal roof--a solid foundation for a variety of potential uses. Positioned on a corner with a street light directly out front, the property offers convenient access and visibility. Historically, the site was used as an upholstery shop decades ago and was once associated with the neighboring home, though it has always remained a separately recognized legal lot. This could be a great opportunity for someone seeking a storage lot, hobby space, or future development potential, subject to buyer verification with the county regarding allowable uses. Bring your ideas--properties with this kind of flexibility and utility access don't come around often.

3. 2026-04-15
   listed $350,000 Active 1155-char remark
4. 2026-04-08
   price $39,000 1005-char remark

   Show marketing remark (881 chars)

   Unique corner lot opportunity with electric in place and a versatile structure ready for your vision. This residentially zoned parcel features electric already on site, along with a 400 sq ft block building topped with a durable metal roof--a solid foundation for a variety of potential uses. Positioned on a corner with a street light directly out front, the property offers convenient access and visibility. Historically, the site was used as an upholstery shop decades ago and was once associated with the neighboring home, though it has always remained a separately recognized legal lot. This could be a great opportunity for someone seeking a storage lot, hobby space, or future development potential, subject to buyer verification with the county regarding allowable uses. Bring your ideas--properties with this kind of flexibility and utility access don't come around often.

5. 2026-04-07
   listed $49,000 Active 1005-char remark

   Show marketing remark (881 chars)

   Unique corner lot opportunity with electric in place and a versatile structure ready for your vision. This residentially zoned parcel features electric already on site, along with a 400 sq ft block building topped with a durable metal roof--a solid foundation for a variety of potential uses. Positioned on a corner with a street light directly out front, the property offers convenient access and visibility. Historically, the site was used as an upholstery shop decades ago and was once associated with the neighboring home, though it has always remained a separately recognized legal lot. This could be a great opportunity for someone seeking a storage lot, hobby space, or future development potential, subject to buyer verification with the county regarding allowable uses. Bring your ideas--properties with this kind of flexibility and utility access don't come around often.

6. 2020-05-11
   soldstatus $237,300

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Adorable home located on a beautiful one acre lot. This home has so much to offer! 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, newer roof, updated kitchen, fenced front yard, seasonal stream, garage with workshop and more! Add your personal touches with new paint and flooring and this home could be perfect for you.

7. 2020-05-11
   soldstatus $237,500

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Adorable home located on a beautiful one acre lot. This home has so much to offer! 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, newer roof, updated kitchen, fenced front yard, seasonal stream, garage with workshop and more! Add your personal touches with new paint and flooring and this home could be perfect for you.

8. 2019-10-07
   listed $229,000

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Adorable home located on a beautiful one acre lot. This home has so much to offer! 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, newer roof, updated kitchen, fenced front yard, seasonal stream, garage with workshop and more! Add your personal touches with new paint and flooring and this home could be perfect for you.

9. 1989-05-23
   soldstatus $36,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,933 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,933 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone D · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 45 unhealthy d/yr today · 48 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,805
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$2,933
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,144
• − Management: −$2,144
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$11,954
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,869
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,664/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Mountain Gate

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #1255
• US rank: #26371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mountain Gate, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — SAOR
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $30,000 SAOR
• 2026-05-11 Pending — SAOR
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — SAOR
• 2026-04-15 Listed $350,000 SAOR
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $39,000 SAOR
• 2026-04-07 Listed $49,000 SAOR
• 2020-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $237,500 Public Records
• 2020-05-11 Sold (MLS) $237,300 SAOR
• 2019-10-07 Listed $229,000 SAOR
• 1989-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,933 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.