154 Stockton Rd · Tusculum, TN 37641

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,227 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1940 1.07 ac lot Est $221k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A nice two story home with 3 bedrooms and 1 bath with a detached 2 car garage on 1.07 acres. Home has a metal roof, covered front and rear porches, and a shed on property for storage. There is also a concrete driveway and sidewalk, heat pump, and beautiful mountain views.

Key facts

• New step in shower
• New dishwasher
• Detached garage

Tags

• ORIGINAL BRICK FIREPLACE
• NEW STEP IN SHOWER
• NEW DISHWASHER
• FINISHED UPSTAIRS ATTIC
• DETACHED GARAGE
• RV HOOKUP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned A-1; Topography: level to sloped

Exterior

• Parking: Detached concrete garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Private water, public water available, and well; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water available
• Home design: Single-family house; One level
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built as a house
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Back yard fencing; Poultry coop; Shed(s); Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air; Wall unit(s); Window unit(s)
• Interior features: See remarks; Finished basement; Total of 5 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-657/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (28.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#113 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Greene County (rural): math 27% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #83 of 139 in TN (top 60%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Chuckey Elementary (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #423 of 952 statewide, top 48%, 354 students, 0% FRL); Chuckey Doak Middle School (math 41% / reading 25%, grade F, #77 of 333 statewide, top 24%, 388 students, 0% FRL); Chuckey Doak High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #56 of 332 statewide, top 20%, 592 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 58% district-wide (58 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 333 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $200k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,350 (28.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.17%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,860
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
228 Mae Mckee Rd	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,055 (-14%)	13mo	$189,700	$180	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $34,481
• Equity at exit: $104,768

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $111,202
• Equity at exit: $174,141

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37641

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,424 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $573/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,493

Max offer price $190,224

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-12
   status $199,900 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $199,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-02
   listed $199,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $573 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$846/yr (+$71/mo · 147.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,082
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$573
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,367
• − Management: −$1,367
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,236
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,017
• After-tax cash flow: $359/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County
• NCES district ID: 4701470
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,517
• Composite: 21.3/100
• National rank: #8388
• State rank: #83 of 139 in TN

Livability — Tusculum

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #11305

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,110

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,624 people
• By 2030: 68,114 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 66,167 · -3.6%
• By 2050: 63,038 · -8.1%
• By 2075: 55,274 · -19.5%
• By 2100: 45,527 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.7) · D 16.6% · R 82.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -65.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.7 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+61.0 2012: R+46.0 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.29%
• Current HPI: 321.5562
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+151.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $199,900 TVRMLS
• 2016-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2016-03-11 Sold (MLS) $50,000 TVRMLS
• 2016-01-19 Listed $52,000 TVRMLS
• 2015-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 2015-02-11 Sold (MLS) $76,000 TVRMLS
• 2014-12-01 Listed $79,500 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $573 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.