514 Welford Ln · Highlands, TX 77562

$275,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,130 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1992 6,899 sqft lot $129/sqft · at area comps Est $277k · at est. $22/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this charming property with a cozy fireplace, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The natural color palette throughout the house adds a touch of elegance, while the center island in the kitchen is perfect for meal prep and entertaining. The kitchen also boasts a nice backsplash, perfect for adding a pop of style. With other rooms for flexible living space, you'll have plenty of options to customize to your needs. The primary bathroom features a separate tub and shower, as well as double sinks and good under-sink storage. Outside, you'll find a fenced backyard with a sitting area, perfect for enjoying the fresh air. Don't miss out on this lovely home with fresh interior paint. This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

Key facts

• New hvac
• New electrical panel
• New roof

Tags

• VIEWS OF THE SAN JACINTO RIVER
• LARGE ENTERTAINING PATIO
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Community managed by Houston Community Management Serv; Annual association fee of $260 covering recreation facilities; Community amenities include basketball court, park, boat slip

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Views present; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 1992
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Fenced private yard (back yard fencing); Porch; Private yard; Subdivision with views; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms (bedroom count not explicitly listed)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric); Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Bath in primary bedroom; Pantry; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Vaulted ceilings; Window treatments; Loft; Living/dining room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($858/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.2% in Highlands — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#738 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Highlands El (math 33% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 739 students, 83% FRL); Highlands J H (math 46% / reading 37%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Goose Creek Memorial (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,223 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 61% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $275k implies a 202% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.11%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,097
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -0.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
410 Welford Ln	0.09mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,159 (+1%)	13mo	$200,000	$93	78
315 S Hampton Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0	2,115 (-1%)	21mo	$255,000	$121	71
307 S Hampton Ct	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,147 (+1%)	16mo	$275,000	$128	69
1012 Clear Lake Rd	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,033 (-5%)	4mo	$155,000	$76	66
702 Stratford St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,877 (-12%)	6mo	$339,500	$181	60
407 Highland Woods Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	2,087 (-2%)	14mo	$254,999	$122	59
405 N Magnolia St	0.69mi	3/2.5	2,264 (+6%)	2mo	$265,000	$117	56
204 N 7th St	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,441 (+15%)	18mo	$199,900	$82	36
515 N Magnolia St	0.68mi	3/2.0	2,390 (+12%)	21mo	$319,500	$134	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-39,847
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-28,184
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77562

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,740 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$514 /mo · $6,174/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$22
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,650

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
431 N Hampton Ct Highlands, TX	4.0	2.5	2832	$2,755	$0.97	1d	1	0.08mi
305 Riverside St Highlands, TX	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,600	$1.85	2d	1	0.83mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $22 · $264/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $275,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $280,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $280,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $280,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-12
    listed $280,000 Active 999-char remark
14. 2024-06-14
    soldstatus
15. 2024-06-13
    soldstatus Sold 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming property with a cozy fireplace, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The natural color palette throughout the house adds a touch of elegance, while the center island in the kitchen is perfect for meal prep and entertaining. The kitchen also boasts a nice backsplash, perfect for adding a pop of style. With other rooms for flexible living space, you'll have plenty of options to customize to your needs. The primary bathroom features a separate tub and shower, as well as double sinks and good under-sink storage. Outside, you'll find a fenced backyard with a sitting area, perfect for enjoying the fresh air. Don't miss out on this lovely home with fresh interior paint. This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

16. 2024-04-22
    status Pending 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming property with a cozy fireplace, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The natural color palette throughout the house adds a touch of elegance, while the center island in the kitchen is perfect for meal prep and entertaining. The kitchen also boasts a nice backsplash, perfect for adding a pop of style. With other rooms for flexible living space, you'll have plenty of options to customize to your needs. The primary bathroom features a separate tub and shower, as well as double sinks and good under-sink storage. Outside, you'll find a fenced backyard with a sitting area, perfect for enjoying the fresh air. Don't miss out on this lovely home with fresh interior paint. This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

17. 2024-04-04
    price $253,000 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming property with a cozy fireplace, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The natural color palette throughout the house adds a touch of elegance, while the center island in the kitchen is perfect for meal prep and entertaining. The kitchen also boasts a nice backsplash, perfect for adding a pop of style. With other rooms for flexible living space, you'll have plenty of options to customize to your needs. The primary bathroom features a separate tub and shower, as well as double sinks and good under-sink storage. Outside, you'll find a fenced backyard with a sitting area, perfect for enjoying the fresh air. Don't miss out on this lovely home with fresh interior paint. This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

18. 2024-03-21
    price $255,000 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming property with a cozy fireplace, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The natural color palette throughout the house adds a touch of elegance, while the center island in the kitchen is perfect for meal prep and entertaining. The kitchen also boasts a nice backsplash, perfect for adding a pop of style. With other rooms for flexible living space, you'll have plenty of options to customize to your needs. The primary bathroom features a separate tub and shower, as well as double sinks and good under-sink storage. Outside, you'll find a fenced backyard with a sitting area, perfect for enjoying the fresh air. Don't miss out on this lovely home with fresh interior paint. This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

19. 2024-03-05
    status Active 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming property with a cozy fireplace, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The natural color palette throughout the house adds a touch of elegance, while the center island in the kitchen is perfect for meal prep and entertaining. The kitchen also boasts a nice backsplash, perfect for adding a pop of style. With other rooms for flexible living space, you'll have plenty of options to customize to your needs. The primary bathroom features a separate tub and shower, as well as double sinks and good under-sink storage. Outside, you'll find a fenced backyard with a sitting area, perfect for enjoying the fresh air. Don't miss out on this lovely home with fresh interior paint. This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

20. 2024-03-01
    status Pending 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming property with a cozy fireplace, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The natural color palette throughout the house adds a touch of elegance, while the center island in the kitchen is perfect for meal prep and entertaining. The kitchen also boasts a nice backsplash, perfect for adding a pop of style. With other rooms for flexible living space, you'll have plenty of options to customize to your needs. The primary bathroom features a separate tub and shower, as well as double sinks and good under-sink storage. Outside, you'll find a fenced backyard with a sitting area, perfect for enjoying the fresh air. Don't miss out on this lovely home with fresh interior paint. This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

21. 2024-02-20
    listed $261,000 Active 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming property with a cozy fireplace, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The natural color palette throughout the house adds a touch of elegance, while the center island in the kitchen is perfect for meal prep and entertaining. The kitchen also boasts a nice backsplash, perfect for adding a pop of style. With other rooms for flexible living space, you'll have plenty of options to customize to your needs. The primary bathroom features a separate tub and shower, as well as double sinks and good under-sink storage. Outside, you'll find a fenced backyard with a sitting area, perfect for enjoying the fresh air. Don't miss out on this lovely home with fresh interior paint. This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

22. 2024-01-11
    soldstatus
23. 1992-08-20
    soldstatus $91,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,174 · $514/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,174 · $514/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$6,174
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,631
• − Management: −$2,631
• − HOA: −$264
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$3,596
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$863
• After-tax cash flow: $1,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Highlands

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #13697

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Highlands, TX
• City population: 9,805
• Population (ZIP): 9,805

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 19% Black 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 29% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.57%
• Current HPI: 303.5126
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+202.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-06-13 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-04-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-04-04 Price Changed $253,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-21 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-03-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-02-20 Listed $261,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,174 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.