16127 Old Glenn Hwy · Anchorage, AK 99567

$310,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1959 2.37 ac lot Est $457k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

FIXER with great equity potential in Chugiak! Ranch home with detached garage on 3 lots! 2.37 Acres and the back yard is completely fenced. Being sold AS-IS, and price reflects condition as foundation is compromised.

Key facts

• 3 lots
• 2.37 acres
• Detached garage

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• BACK YARD FENCED
• 3 LOTS
• 2.37 ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $887 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $310k).
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fire Lake Elementary (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #83 of 156 statewide, top 59%, 229 students, 39% FRL); Mirror Lake Middle School (math 39% / reading 53%, grade D+, #10 of 36 statewide, top 26%, 563 students, 21% FRL); Chugiak High School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #17 of 61 statewide, top 32%, 905 students, 19% FRL).
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $87k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $310,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.26%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $456,960
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16127 Old Glenn Hwy	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,680 (0%)	1mo	$310,000	$185	99
19903 Gilbert Rd	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,708 (+2%)	1mo	$579,900	$340	91
16006 Division St	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,708 (+2%)	0mo	$579,900	$340	90
19926 E Henkins Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-2%)	13mo	$149,900	$91	75
15251 Old Glenn Hwy	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,836 (+9%)	19mo	$499,900	$272	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $6,271
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $78,333
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99567

• Home prices YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$361 /mo · $4,327/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$798
• Net cashflow: $887

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,678

Max offer price $310,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,062	-5% $974	+0% $887	+5% $799	+10% $711
Rent	-10% $586	-5% $736	+0% $887	+5% $1,037	+10% $1,187
Rate	-1.0pp $1,043	-0.5pp $965	base $887	+0.5pp $806	+1.0pp $724

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14847 W Lake Ridge Dr Unit A Eagle River, AK	3.0	2.5	2088	$3,800	$1.82	24d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-17
   listed $310,000 Active
3. 2013-07-18
   listed $292,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,327 · $361/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,327 · $361/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$4,327
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,648
• − Management: −$3,648
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable income: $6,044
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,450
• After-tax cash flow: $9,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• City population: 218,117
• Population (ZIP): 6,739

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Native American 5% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.74%
• Current HPI: 279.3784
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+6.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $310,000 AKMLS
• 2013-07-18 Listed $292,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+16.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,327 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.