633 Drake Dr · Marion, TX 78124

$215,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Garage $137/sqft · 21% below area Est $275k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Single-level layout
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LAYOUT
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $216k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-582/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Marion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #243 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Norma Krueger El (362 students, 50% FRL); Marion Middle (math 37% / reading 45%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 372 students, 41% FRL); Marion H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 456 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 667 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 41d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $182,809 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,892
• List price: $215,999
• Delta: -21.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
102 Haley Way	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,575 (0%)	1mo	$216,999	$138	99
634 Drake Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	0mo	$217,999	$136	97
702 Thea Mdws	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	1mo	$217,999	$136	97
5120 Hagerman	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+6%)	0mo	$236,999	$142	90
2224 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+6%)	1mo	$210,999	$127	90
5116 Hagerman	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-6%)	1mo	$218,999	$149	84
638 Drake Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,575 (0%)	0mo	$237,999	$151	78
106 Haley Way	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-10%)	0mo	$205,999	$146	77
637 Drake Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-10%)	0mo	$205,999	$146	77
710 Thea Mdws	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-10%)	1mo	$207,999	$147	77
114 Haley Way	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	1mo	$210,999	$150	76
922 Moonshine Ln	0.46mi	4/3.0	1,650 (+5%)	1mo	$238,999	$145	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-38,064
• Equity at exit: $32,206

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-37,014
• Equity at exit: $18,676

Cash invested: $60,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 59 active · 57 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.2 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $231,999 ($145/sqft)
• Median days on market: 60 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +20.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78124

• Active inventory: 667
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,828 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,133
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$270 /mo · $3,240/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,890

Max offer price $208,977

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $101	-5% $26	+0% $-49	+5% $-123	+10% $-198
Rent	-10% $-193	-5% $-121	+0% $-49	+5% $24	+10% $96
Rate	-1.0pp $60	-0.5pp $6	base $-49	+0.5pp $-105	+1.0pp $-161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,000
• Closing costs: $6,480
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
738 Thea MDWS Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1575	$1,600	$1.02	64d	1	0.03mi
747 Thea MDWS Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,214	$1.19	64d	1	0.03mi
309 Meadow Dr Marion, TX	3.0	1.0	1156	$1,250	$1.08	10d	1	0.37mi
312 N Lavernia Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1714	$2,200	$1.28	10d	1	0.44mi
205 W Schulz St Marion, TX	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,625	$1.35	40d	1	0.49mi
205 W Schulz St Unit Na Marion, TX	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,625	$1.35	10d	1	0.49mi
1115 Pigeon Ln Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,895	$1.07	70d	1	1.20mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 633 Drake Dr, Marion, TX 78124Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price $224,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home (Sentosa plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,575 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Sentosa plan)Active listing

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-07-05
   days on market $215,999 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-07-03
   days on market $215,999 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-07-02
   days on market $215,999 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-07-01
   days on market $215,999 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-30
   days on market $215,999 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-29
   days on market $215,999 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-28
   days on market $215,999 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-27
   days on market $215,999 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-26
   days on market $215,999 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-24
    days on market $215,999 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-22
    days on market $215,999 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-21
    days on market $215,999 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-18
    days on market $215,999 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-17
    pricedays on market $215,999 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-16
    days on market $217,999 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-06-15
    pricedays on market $217,999 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-06-13
    days on market $220,999 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-06-13
    days on market $220,999 Active 17 DOM
19. 2026-06-09
    days on market $220,999 Active 14 DOM
20. 2026-06-08
    days on market $220,999 Active 13 DOM
21. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,999 Active 12 DOM
22. 2026-06-04
    days on market $220,999 Active 9 DOM
23. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,999 Active 8 DOM
24. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $220,999 Active 7 DOM
25. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,999 Active 6 DOM
26. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,999 Active 5 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,099
• − Property taxes: −$3,240
• − Insurance: −$1,080
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,755
• − Management: −$1,755
• − Depreciation: −$6,284
• Taxable loss: −$4,276
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,026
• After-tax cash flow: $444/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home offers a modern and spacious living experience with excellent condition and minimal maintenance needs.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase property value ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase property value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Norma Krueger El/bert Karrer Campus D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Marion Middle F TX #613/1,662 Nat'l #5,727/14,009 High Marion H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829100
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,465
• Composite: 39.86/100
• National rank: #3867
• State rank: #243 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Marion

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #11619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion, TX
• County: Guadalupe · 196,854 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,907
• Household income: $82,534
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 47% of renters

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Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
• Current HPI: 189.5796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 633 Drake Dr, Marion, TX 78124Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price $224,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home (Sentosa plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,575 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Sentosa plan)Active listing