7484 Kickapoo Trl #46 · Yucca Valley, CA 92284

$24,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured · 97 Days on market

Built 1971 $37/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming single-wide manufactured home in a welcoming 55+ community! This cozy residence offers comfortable single-level living with an open floor plan, updated kitchen and spacious living area. Enjoy low-maintenance living with community amenities including clubhouse and a pool. * * Important: Buyer must be approved by the park management prior to purchase. * * Park approval required for all prospective residents (55+ age qualification and application process apply).

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Clubhouse
• Community amenities

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $808 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $23k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 51.3% vs local median 3.6% in Yucca Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#566 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 563 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $172 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $747 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($23k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $22,659 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 51.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 160.65%
• DSCR: 8.15
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $58,650
• List price: $24,900
• Delta: -57.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7484 Kickapoo Trl	0.03mi	2/2.0	720 (+7%)	14mo	$23,000	$32	75
55524 Yucca Trl #80	0.42mi	2/1.0	696 (+4%)	6mo	$63,160	$91	66
55524 Yucca Trl #55	0.39mi	2/1.0	756 (+12%)	5mo	$55,000	$73	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.05×
• Total profit: $49,129
• Equity at exit: $3,713

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.66×
• Total profit: $116,150
• Equity at exit: $2,153

Cash invested: $6,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92284

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 563
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,399 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $374/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $808

Break-even live

Break-even rent $376

Max offer price $24,900

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,225
• Closing costs: $747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7434 Cherokee Trl Unit D Yucca Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	608	$1,100	$1.81	43d	1	0.84mi
7239 Cherokee Trl Yucca Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,429	$2.60	1d	1	0.89mi
7389 Cibola Trl Unit B Yucca Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	15d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $24,900 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $24,900 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $24,900 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $24,900 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $24,900 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $24,900 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $24,900 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $24,900 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $24,900 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $24,900 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $34,900 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $34,900 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $34,900 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $34,900 Active 79 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone A · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,395
• − Property taxes: −$374
• − Insurance: −$1,627
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,343
• − Management: −$1,343
• − Depreciation: −$724
• Taxable income: $9,985
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,396
• After-tax cash flow: $7,301/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morongo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625860
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,399
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8156
• State rank: #395 of 517 in CA

Livability — Yucca Valley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #566
• US rank: #18584

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Yucca Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 25,415
• Household income: $58,373
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1132.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Native American 2% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -241.13%
• Current HPI: 486.7185
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.12%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B