8124 Vanilla Orchid Dr · Houston, TX 77016

$264,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,355 sqft · SingleFamily · 121 Days on market

Built 2026 4,753 sqft lot $196/sqft · at area comps Est $268k · at est. $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Love where you live in Wayside Village in Houston, TX! The Sweetwater floor plan is a charming 1-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage! This home has it all, including vinyl plank flooring and tray ceilings for some dramatic flair. The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" white cabinetry, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. Retreat to the Owner's Suite featuring granite countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Wayside Village home, schedule a visit today!

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Covered patio
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• TRAY CEILINGS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-468 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (33.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (33.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 372 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $177,145 (33.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.57%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,530
• List price: $264,990
• Delta: -0.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8206 Vanilla Orchid Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-7%)	0mo	$264,900	$210	87
8215 Blooming Meadow Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-7%)	3mo	$264,900	$210	81
10703 Lavender Cotton Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+4%)	3mo	$258,365	$184	78
7914 Cassie Pine Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,401 (+3%)	0mo	$274,290	$196	75
7918 Cassie Pine Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+4%)	0mo	$278,290	$197	74
7902 Elowen Grove Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+4%)	2mo	$277,290	$196	73
10315 Vinca Minor Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+4%)	1mo	$276,240	$196	73
7904 Cassie Pine Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+4%)	0mo	$281,040	$199	73
8131 Vanilla Orchid Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+15%)	3mo	$274,990	$177	72
8214 Burnt Orchid Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,506 (+11%)	3mo	$286,900	$191	71
10643 Red Orchid Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,409 (+4%)	2mo	$240,000	$170	66
7726 Spinet St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	3mo	$150,000	$103	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $86,060
• Equity at exit: $213,125

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.57×
• Total profit: $264,523
• Equity at exit: $434,834

Cash invested: $74,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,771 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,975/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,364

Max offer price $197,293

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,248
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	7d	1	0.25mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	43d	1	0.27mi
10474 Red Orchid Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,875	$1.21	24d	1	0.42mi
8214 Parker Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,560	$0.97	7d	1	0.42mi
8102 Rhobell St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	1567	$1,750	$1.12	43d	1	0.57mi
8314 Madera Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,495	$0.93	24d	1	0.60mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	7d	1	0.61mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,782	$2.53	7d	1	0.63mi
8302 Caddo Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$1,450	$1.62	43d	1	0.67mi
8213 Bigwood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	43d	1	0.67mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,450	$1.25	15d	1	0.76mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,525	$1.31	15d	1	0.76mi
8126 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	24d	1	0.76mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	18d	1	0.86mi
6822 Leedale St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$1,500	$1.53	43d	1	0.87mi
7223 Valmont Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1546	$1,595	$1.03	43d	1	0.88mi
8235 Locksley Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,525	$0.95	7d	1	0.93mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	5d	1	0.94mi
9702 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,550	$0.96	43d	1	1.09mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	16d	1	1.09mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	43d	1	1.09mi
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,399	$1.56	1d	5	1.14mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	14d	1	1.17mi
8346 Tidwell Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$1,000	$1.02	43d	1	1.18mi
8350 Tidwell Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$975	$0.99	43d	1	1.19mi
7252 Parker Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,650	$1.80	43d	1	1.25mi
9700 Mesa Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	784	$989	$1.26	2d	8	1.26mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	43d	1	1.41mi
11235 Lemond Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	22d	1	1.44mi
9222 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,850	$1.23	43d	1	1.46mi
8006 Lynette St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,475	$1.05	24d	1	1.48mi
9218 Nyssa St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,490	$0.93	1d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-01-26
   listed $264,990 Active 618-char remark

   Show marketing remark (618 chars)

   Love where you live in Wayside Village in Houston, TX! The Sweetwater floor plan is a charming 1-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage! This home has it all, including vinyl plank flooring and tray ceilings for some dramatic flair. The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" white cabinetry, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. Retreat to the Owner's Suite featuring granite countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Wayside Village home, schedule a visit today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,975
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,701
• − Management: −$1,701
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$10,428
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,503
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,111/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Listed $264,990 HARMLS