513 Carthage St · Caddo Mills, TX 75135

$306,490

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,060 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

Built 2025 6,621 sqft lot $149/sqft · 10% below area Est $340k · 10% under $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New! Amazing and spacious single story! Four bedrooms, three full baths, separate study-den. Home includes, large island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Come see this stunning new community in Caddo Mills nestled between Hwy 66 and I-30. Enjoy small town country living with access to downtown Dallas only 42 miles away. With a playground, community pool, and 3 large lakes under an hour away, there’s no shortage of outdoor fun available with this neighborhood. This community has something for everyone! Schedule a tour today!

Key facts

• Led lighting
• Community pool
• Island kitchen

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• LED LIGHTING
• FULL SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• COMMUNITY POOL
• PLAYGROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $306k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-250 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.9% in Caddo Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#216 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Caddo Mills ISD (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #60 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Frances And Jeannette Lee El (math 63% / reading 55%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 571 students, 29% FRL); Caddo Mills Middle (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 416 students, 28% FRL); Caddo Mills H S (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 681 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 317 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($288k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $241,494 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.50%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $340,490
• List price: $306,490
• Delta: -9.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
506 Carthage St	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,060 (0%)	1mo	$333,490	$162	98
514 Carthage St	0.02mi	4/2.0	2,017 (-2%)	1mo	$338,990	$168	91
406 Range Rd	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,060 (0%)	4mo	$344,990	$167	91
113 Lantern Rd	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,060 (0%)	3mo	$324,900	$158	89
412 Range Rd	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,017 (-2%)	4mo	$341,990	$170	85
506 Range Rd	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,935 (-6%)	3mo	$299,490	$155	80
413 Range Rd	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,829 (-11%)	3mo	$331,490	$181	70
167 Mockingbird Way	0.63mi	4/2.0	2,017 (-2%)	1mo	$289,000	$143	62
215 Bobcat Ln	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,829 (-11%)	3mo	$298,990	$163	61
211 Buckboard Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,829 (-11%)	3mo	$299,650	$164	60
207 Pintail Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	2,014 (-2%)	4mo	$304,000	$151	57
108 Condor Pass	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,830 (-11%)	2mo	$267,999	$146	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-65,544
• Equity at exit: $45,699

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-77,352
• Equity at exit: $26,500

Cash invested: $85,817 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75135

• Home prices YoY: -13.5%
• Active inventory: 317
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,415 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,607
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$383 /mo · $4,597/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,732

Max offer price $270,275

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-38	-5% $-144	+0% $-250	+5% $-356	+10% $-462
Rent	-10% $-441	-5% $-346	+0% $-250	+5% $-155	+10% $-59
Rate	-1.0pp $-96	-0.5pp $-172	base $-250	+0.5pp $-330	+1.0pp $-410

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,622
• Closing costs: $9,195
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
509 Range Rd Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2060	$2,500	$1.21	3d	1	0.07mi
210 Calico Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2012	$2,400	$1.19	26d	1	0.28mi
132 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,400	$1.35	14d	1	0.49mi
218 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$2,195	$1.27	45d	1	0.51mi
187 Longhorn Pass Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2003	$2,195	$1.10	7d	1	0.52mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $306,490 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $306,490 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $306,490 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $306,490 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $306,490 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $306,490 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $306,490 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $306,490 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $316,490 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $316,490 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $316,490 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $316,490 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $316,490 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $316,490 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $316,490 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $316,490 Active 55 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $316,490 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    New! Amazing and spacious single story! Four bedrooms, three full baths, separate study-den. Home includes, large island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Come see this stunning new community in Caddo Mills nestled between Hwy 66 and I-30. Enjoy small town country living with access to downtown Dallas only 42 miles away. With a playground, community pool, and 3 large lakes under an hour away, there’s no shortage of outdoor fun available with this neighborhood. This community has something for everyone! Schedule a tour today!

18. 2026-05-11
    price $326,490 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    New! Amazing and spacious single story! Four bedrooms, three full baths, separate study-den. Home includes, large island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Come see this stunning new community in Caddo Mills nestled between Hwy 66 and I-30. Enjoy small town country living with access to downtown Dallas only 42 miles away. With a playground, community pool, and 3 large lakes under an hour away, there’s no shortage of outdoor fun available with this neighborhood. This community has something for everyone! Schedule a tour today!

19. 2026-05-01
    price $324,490 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    New! Amazing and spacious single story! Four bedrooms, three full baths, separate study-den. Home includes, large island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Come see this stunning new community in Caddo Mills nestled between Hwy 66 and I-30. Enjoy small town country living with access to downtown Dallas only 42 miles away. With a playground, community pool, and 3 large lakes under an hour away, there’s no shortage of outdoor fun available with this neighborhood. This community has something for everyone! Schedule a tour today!

20. 2026-04-06
    listed $349,490 Active 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    New! Amazing and spacious single story! Four bedrooms, three full baths, separate study-den. Home includes, large island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Come see this stunning new community in Caddo Mills nestled between Hwy 66 and I-30. Enjoy small town country living with access to downtown Dallas only 42 miles away. With a playground, community pool, and 3 large lakes under an hour away, there’s no shortage of outdoor fun available with this neighborhood. This community has something for everyone! Schedule a tour today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,979
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,168
• − Property taxes: −$4,597
• − Insurance: −$1,532
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,318
• − Management: −$2,318
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$8,916
• Taxable loss: −$8,351
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,004
• After-tax cash flow: $-999/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Mills ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,383
• Composite: 51.73/100
• National rank: #1684
• State rank: #60 of 826 in TX

Livability — Caddo Mills

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #5332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,265

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.07%
• Current HPI: 275.2189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $316,490 NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $326,490 NTREIS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $324,490 NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $349,490 NTREIS