10956 Green #216 · Columbia, CA 95310

$114,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured · 51 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Very low maintenance front yard and large back yard and is perfect for summertime entertaining and Bar - B - Ques. Recent flooring(laminate) through out home. Newer kitchen sink and plumbing. Newer paint in kitchen.

Key facts

• Newer kitchen sink
• Newer plumbing
• Large back yard

Tags

• LOW MAINTENANCE FRONT YARD
• LARGE BACK YARD
• NEWER KITCHEN SINK
• NEWER PLUMBING
• NEWER PAINT IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Senior community; Clubhouse; Community pool; Park name: Columbia Sky Mobile Home Estates; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; limits on number and size)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport for 2 or more vehicles; RV parking (community)
• Utilities: Internet available; Master gas meter
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Single-story (double wide layout)
• Construction: Fiber cement exterior; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Shed(s); Landscaped, level lot; In-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range/cooktop
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (both full)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Evaporative cooling; Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Gas Range; Enclosed porch; Landscape front and back
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; 220-volt outlet; Laundry facility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $388 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,080 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-, housing B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia Union (rural): math 22% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #383 of 517 in CA (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,549 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.47%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $46,440
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10956 Green Street #225 #225	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-4%)	14mo	$45,000	$43	82
10956 Green St #122	0.00mi	2/2.0	940 (-13%)	2mo	$59,000	$63	77
22217 Parrotts Ferry Rd #35 #35	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-2%)	5mo	$19,000	$18	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $6,110
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $37,246
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95310

• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,497 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $114,999

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $468	-5% $428	+0% $388	+5% $348	+10% $309
Rent	-10% $270	-5% $329	+0% $388	+5% $447	+10% $506
Rate	-1.0pp $446	-0.5pp $417	base $388	+0.5pp $358	+1.0pp $328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $114,999 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $114,999 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $114,999 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-04-11
   listed $114,999 Active
5. 2025-04-09
   historical
6. 2025-01-09
   listed Active
7. 2024-08-27
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,437
• − Management: −$1,437
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $3,006
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$721
• After-tax cash flow: $3,936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia Union
• NCES district ID: 0609480
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,469
• Composite: 22.83/100
• National rank: #8013
• State rank: #383 of 517 in CA

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1080
• US rank: #25332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, CA
• Population (ZIP): 1,783

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Russian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.19%
• Current HPI: 96.2554
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $114,999 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-04-09 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-01-09 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-08-27 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $81 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.