15419 Winston Ave · Urbandale, IA 50323

$365,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,986 sqft · Other public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2002 8,453 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Schools +7.1/10.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 15419 Winston Ave in Urbandale—a well-maintained 3 bed, 3 bath home offering a functional layout and comfortable living spaces. The main level features an open-concept design with great natural light, a spacious kitchen, and seamless flow into the dining and living areas—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Upstairs, you’ll find generously sized bedrooms, including a primary suite with private bath. The basement is unfinished, providing a blank slate for future expansion or ample storage. Enjoy outdoor living with a great yard space and room to make it your own. Located in a desirable neighborhood close to parks, schools, and amenities—this home is

Key facts

• Inviting living area
• Great yard
• 2 story home

Tags

• 2 STORY HOME
• INVITING LIVING AREA
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• GREAT YARD
• NEAR PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: $2,542 annual tax amount

Exterior

• Parking: Attached two-car garage
• Security: Fire alarm; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story home; Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Asphalt shingle roof; Built by Regency; Rectangular lot with concrete road access; Property zoned RES
• Construction: Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Fire pit; Open patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Cable TV; Gas log fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-922 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (44.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (45.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (45.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 2.4% in Urbandale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#4 in IA, #69 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: commute F.
• Waukee Community School District (suburban): math 80% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #14 of 289 in IA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 378 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,503 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (630 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($176k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at +74% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $198,432 (45.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.83%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $21,398
• Equity at exit: $202,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $117,492
• Equity at exit: $346,163

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50323

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 378
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,984 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$424 /mo · $5,084/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-922

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,152

Max offer price $202,083

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-716	-5% $-819	+0% $-922	+5% $-1,026	+10% $-1,129
Rent	-10% $-1,079	-5% $-1,001	+0% $-922	+5% $-844	+10% $-765
Rate	-1.0pp $-738	-0.5pp $-829	base $-922	+0.5pp $-1,017	+1.0pp $-1,113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4015 154th St Urbandale, IA	3.0	2.5	1428	$2,295	$1.61	20d	1	0.12mi
4304 153rd Pl Urbandale, IA	2.0	2.5	1240	$1,450	$1.17	22d	1	0.25mi
4304 154th St Urbandale, IA	2.0	2.5	1240	$1,595	$1.29	44d	1	0.26mi
4315 152nd Ct Urbandale, IA	2.0	2.5	1240	$1,495	$1.21	15d	1	0.27mi
4307 154th St Urbandale, IA	3.0	2.5	1445	$1,850	$1.28	24d	1	0.27mi
3504 163rd St Urbandale, IA	3.0	2.5	1454	$2,245	$1.54	20d	1	0.89mi
16605 Oakwood Dr Urbandale, IA	3.0	2.5	1572	$2,350	$1.49	44d	1	0.93mi
4454 142nd St Urbandale, IA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	949	$1,384	$1.46	15d	6	0.98mi
4735 NW 167th St Waukee, IA	3.0	3.0	1557	$2,300	$1.48	44d	1	1.03mi
4736 167th St Urbandale, IA	3.0	2.5	1585	$2,296	$1.45	15d	1	1.05mi
16772 Wilden Dr Clive, IA	4.0	3.0	2500	$2,775	$1.11	24d	1	1.17mi
4743 170th Pl Waukee, IA	3.0	2.5	1511	$2,050	$1.36	15d	1	1.39mi
15561 Rocklyn PL Clive, IA	4.0	4.0	2445	$2,850	$1.17	44d	1	1.41mi
15583 Rocklyn PL Clive, IA	4.0	4.0	2445	$3,150	$1.29	44d	1	1.42mi
15118 Deerview Dr Urbandale, IA	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,195	$1.37	44d	1	1.43mi
5437 155th St Urbandale, IA	3.0–4.0	2.5	1590	$1,969	$1.24	15d	8	1.44mi
835 NE Redwood Blvd Waukee, IA	2.0	2.0	1457	$2,235	$1.53	15d	3	1.46mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 737-char remark
2. 2026-04-29
   status Active 737-char remark
3. 2026-04-27
   status Pending 737-char remark
4. 2026-04-25
   listed $365,000 Active 737-char remark
5. 2021-09-14
   soldstatus $324,000
6. 2005-11-09
   soldstatus $220,000
7. 2005-06-27
   listed $229,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,084 · $424/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,407 · $451/mo
• Expected delta: +$323/yr (+$27/mo · 6.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$5,084
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,905
• − Management: −$1,905
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$17,971
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,313
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waukee Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1930510
• Math proficiency: 80% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $88,580
• Composite: 70.94/100
• National rank: #245
• State rank: #14 of 289 in IA

Livability — Urbandale

• Score: 90/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #69

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Urbandale, IA
• County: Polk County · 453,298 people
• City population: 49,196
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• Population (ZIP): 17,265
• Household income: $175,944
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 63.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,904 people
• By 2030: 127,807 · +14.2%
• By 2040: 160,576 · +43.5%
• By 2050: 194,154 · +73.5%
• By 2075: 271,895 · +143.0%
• By 2100: 326,525 · +191.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 6% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.9% · R 51.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -5.5pp · 2024: -4.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.8 2020: R+2.0 2016: R+9.6 2012: R+11.8 2008: R+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.81%
• Current HPI: 199.789
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+60.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $368,000 Public Records
• 2026-06-01 Sold (MLS) $368,000 DMMLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — DMMLS
• 2026-04-29 Relisted — DMMLS
• 2026-04-27 Pending — DMMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $365,000 DMMLS
• 2021-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $324,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-27 Listed $229,000 DMMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,084 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.