1245 County Road 40 W · Billingsley, AL 36067

$124,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1997

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Willing to negotiate, with this property you get the land and all, she'd in the back, lots of kids around the neighborhood, its not perfect but its affordable, the roof and rafters all new with in the past 4 years, under pinning as well

Key facts

• New rafters
• Under pinning
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW RAFTERS
• UNDER PINNING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $124k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $730 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $124k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 43/100 on livability (#560 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Autauga County (rural): math 23% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #34 of 129 in AL (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 221 units permitted in Autauga County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $857 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Autauga County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $124k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.23%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $32,205
• Equity at exit: $18,489

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.26×
• Total profit: $113,124
• Equity at exit: $10,721

Cash invested: $34,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36067

• Home prices YoY: -12.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,009 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$650
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$155 /mo · $1,860/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $730

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,085

Max offer price $124,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,000
• Closing costs: $3,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,000 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,000 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $124,000 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,000 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $124,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,000 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,000 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,000 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,000 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,000 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $124,000 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-02-11
    listed $124,000 Active 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Willing to negotiate, with this property you get the land and all, she'd in the back, lots of kids around the neighborhood, its not perfect but its affordable, the roof and rafters all new with in the past 4 years, under pinning as well

17. 2020-01-15
    soldstatus $40,000
18. 2020-01-13
    soldstatus $40,000 41-char remark

    Show marketing remark (41 chars)

    Nice mobile home in rural Autauga County.

19. 2020-01-10
    listed $40,000 41-char remark

    Show marketing remark (41 chars)

    Nice mobile home in rural Autauga County.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,946
• − Property taxes: −$1,860
• − Insurance: −$620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,928
• − Management: −$1,928
• − Depreciation: −$3,607
• Taxable income: $7,215
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,732
• After-tax cash flow: $7,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Autauga County
• NCES district ID: 0100240
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,974
• Composite: 31.77/100
• National rank: #5892
• State rank: #34 of 129 in AL

Livability — Billingsley

• Score: 43/100
• State rank: #560
• US rank: #26875

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Autauga County · 50,925 people
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 28,293
• Household income: $65,593
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 389.0

Population outlook (Autauga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,958 people
• By 2030: 55,810 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 54,892 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 53,062 · -5.2%
• By 2075: 49,425 · -11.7%
• By 2100: 45,110 · -19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 20% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Autauga

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.3) · D 26.4% · R 72.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: -47.8pp · 2024: -46.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.3 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+46.0 2008: R+47.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.98%
• Current HPI: 211.1676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+210.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Listed $124,000 Fizber.com
• 2020-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2020-01-13 Sold (MLS) $40,000 MAAR
• 2020-01-10 Listed $40,000 MAAR

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $180 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.