651 J W Jones Rd · Oakland, FL 34787

$252,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,747 sqft · Manufactured public records · 206 Days on market

Built 1994 0.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing location! This charming and well-maintained home is located just steps away from the beautiful West Orange Trail in Winter Garden, FL. Nestled on its own private lot, with NO HOA fees, this home offers the perfect combination of convenient location and peaceful living. Boasting 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this 1747 square-foot home is perfect for those in need of extra space. The home was built in 1994 and has been recently updated with a NEW ROOF, new paint, and brand-new stainless steel appliances, ensuring that it is ready for you to move in and start making memories. In addition to its indoor comforts, this property also includes two sheds for extra storage space. It is perfect for housing all of your outdoor equipment and toys. This home is perfect for outdoor enthusiasts and nature lovers. Whether you enjoy hiking, biking, or simply taking in the beautiful scenery, this home is the ideal place to call home. So if you're looking for a peaceful, yet conveniently located home in Winter Garden, FL, this home is a must-see. Don't miss your chance to own a piece of this wonderful community! This property is not eligible for FHA till 3/30/2023.

Key facts

• Screened front porch
• Open-concept design
• Screened back porch

Tags

• SCREENED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• SCREENED BACK PORCH
• NEAR MAJOR HIGHWAYS
• MINUTES FROM WEST ORANGE TRAIL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property classified as Residential, Manufactured Home; Lot approximately 0.31 acres (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre); Zoning: A-1
• HOA & community: No HOA / association

Exterior

• Parking: No specific parking details provided
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story (one level); Faces southwest; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Outdoor lighting; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split-bedroom floor plan; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $252k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $446 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $252k).
• Recommended offer: $222k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.0% in Oakland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#148 in FL, #2,236 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1581 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.59%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-17,502
• Equity at exit: $37,574

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,287
• Equity at exit: $21,788

Cash invested: $70,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34787

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1581
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,770 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,322
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,790/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $446

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,206

Max offer price $252,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,000
• Closing costs: $7,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5000 Collina Ter Clermont, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1248	$3,149	$2.52	3d	14	0.45mi
751 W Oakland Ave Oakland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1138	$2,825	$2.48	3d	12	0.79mi
17424 Chateau Pine Way Clermont, FL	3.0	2.5	1960	$3,200	$1.63	24d	1	1.15mi
13600 Hilltop Groves Blvd Clermont, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1112	$2,238	$2.01	2d	27	1.30mi
17243 Cercis Loop Clermont, FL	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,799	$1.37	15d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $252,000 Pending 206 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $252,000 Active 206 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $252,000 Active 205 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $252,000 Active 204 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $252,000 Active 203 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $252,000 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $252,000 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $252,000 Active 197 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $252,000 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $252,000 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $252,000 Active 192 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $252,000 Active 191 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $252,000 Active 190 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $252,000 Active 189 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $252,000 Active 188 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    price $252,000
17. 2026-03-05
    price $260,000
18. 2026-03-03
    status Active
19. 2026-01-15
    status Pending
20. 2025-12-08
    price $268,900
21. 2025-11-12
    price $279,900
22. 2025-10-10
    listed $290,000 Active
23. 2023-02-21
    soldstatus $242,000
24. 2023-02-17
    soldstatus $242,000 Closed 1183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1183 chars)

    Amazing location! This charming and well-maintained home is located just steps away from the beautiful West Orange Trail in Winter Garden, FL. Nestled on its own private lot, with NO HOA fees, this home offers the perfect combination of convenient location and peaceful living. Boasting 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this 1747 square-foot home is perfect for those in need of extra space. The home was built in 1994 and has been recently updated with a NEW ROOF, new paint, and brand-new stainless steel appliances, ensuring that it is ready for you to move in and start making memories. In addition to its indoor comforts, this property also includes two sheds for extra storage space. It is perfect for housing all of your outdoor equipment and toys. This home is perfect for outdoor enthusiasts and nature lovers. Whether you enjoy hiking, biking, or simply taking in the beautiful scenery, this home is the ideal place to call home. So if you're looking for a peaceful, yet conveniently located home in Winter Garden, FL, this home is a must-see. Don't miss your chance to own a piece of this wonderful community! This property is not eligible for FHA till 3/30/2023.

25. 2023-02-14
    status Pending 1183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1183 chars)

    Amazing location! This charming and well-maintained home is located just steps away from the beautiful West Orange Trail in Winter Garden, FL. Nestled on its own private lot, with NO HOA fees, this home offers the perfect combination of convenient location and peaceful living. Boasting 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this 1747 square-foot home is perfect for those in need of extra space. The home was built in 1994 and has been recently updated with a NEW ROOF, new paint, and brand-new stainless steel appliances, ensuring that it is ready for you to move in and start making memories. In addition to its indoor comforts, this property also includes two sheds for extra storage space. It is perfect for housing all of your outdoor equipment and toys. This home is perfect for outdoor enthusiasts and nature lovers. Whether you enjoy hiking, biking, or simply taking in the beautiful scenery, this home is the ideal place to call home. So if you're looking for a peaceful, yet conveniently located home in Winter Garden, FL, this home is a must-see. Don't miss your chance to own a piece of this wonderful community! This property is not eligible for FHA till 3/30/2023.

26. 2023-02-07
    listed $239,900 Active 1183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1183 chars)

    Amazing location! This charming and well-maintained home is located just steps away from the beautiful West Orange Trail in Winter Garden, FL. Nestled on its own private lot, with NO HOA fees, this home offers the perfect combination of convenient location and peaceful living. Boasting 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this 1747 square-foot home is perfect for those in need of extra space. The home was built in 1994 and has been recently updated with a NEW ROOF, new paint, and brand-new stainless steel appliances, ensuring that it is ready for you to move in and start making memories. In addition to its indoor comforts, this property also includes two sheds for extra storage space. It is perfect for housing all of your outdoor equipment and toys. This home is perfect for outdoor enthusiasts and nature lovers. Whether you enjoy hiking, biking, or simply taking in the beautiful scenery, this home is the ideal place to call home. So if you're looking for a peaceful, yet conveniently located home in Winter Garden, FL, this home is a must-see. Don't miss your chance to own a piece of this wonderful community! This property is not eligible for FHA till 3/30/2023.

27. 2022-12-30
    soldstatus $101,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,790 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,790 · $316/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,116
• − Property taxes: −$3,790
• − Insurance: −$1,260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,659
• − Management: −$2,659
• − Depreciation: −$7,331
• Taxable income: $1,426
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$342
• After-tax cash flow: $5,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Oakland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #2236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 740
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 101,441
• Household income: $120,365
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2682.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 21% Black 9% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 4% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -189.49%
• Current HPI: 296.8866
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.13%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+149.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $252,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $268,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Listed $290,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $242,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-17 Sold (MLS) $242,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-07 Listed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $101,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,790 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.