2619 Duck Lake Dr · Moss Point, MS 39563

$225,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,739 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1997 0.35 ac lot Est $174k · 29% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Warm & inviting! Welcome to this charming 3- bedroom home offering comfort and convenience throughout. Enjoy morning coffee or evening gatherings on the beautiful screened -in porch, plus the added bonus of a spacious 2- car garage. This lovely home in Sawmill Pointe is located on a corner lot. Extreme privacy and stunning magnolia and oak trees.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Corner lot
• 0.35 acre lot

Tags

• SCREENED IN PORCH
• CORNER LOT
• MAGNOLIA AND OAK TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: General residential zoning
• HOA & community: Community features include curbs, fishing, and a park

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Driveway; On-street parking; Concrete parking surfaces
• Security: Leased security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family house; Two levels; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built according to appraiser measurements
• Exterior features: Deck; Screened porch; Garden; Private yard; Uncovered courtyard; Front-yard fencing; Waterfront view

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Flooring: Brick; Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Double vanity; Soaking tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Bookcases; Ceiling fans; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Soaking tub; Double vanity; Hinged patio door; Window screens; Wood-burning fireplace; One family room (main level)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (33.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#77 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Moss Point Separate School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #94 of 130 in MS (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Moss Point Escatawpa Upper Elem (math 12% / reading 20%, grade F, #270 of 375 statewide, top 72%, 339 students, 100% FRL); Moss Point High School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #101 of 197 statewide, top 54%, 455 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 83% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000 (33.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.66%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,900
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4700 Sawmill Rd	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,662 (-4%)	9mo	$199,900	$120	79
2801 Woodlawn Ave	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,618 (-7%)	1mo	$119,500	$74	75
2752 Briarwood Cir	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,811 (+4%)	22mo	$194,900	$108	62
4918 Oakwood St	0.20mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,950 (+12%)	18mo	$195,000	$100	49
3100 Bellview Ave	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,948 (+12%)	2mo	$159,900	$82	48
3219 Choctaw Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,971 (+13%)	8mo	$255,000	$129	39
4607 Griffin St	0.71mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,620 (-7%)	8mo	$95,000	$59	38
3112 Bellview Ave	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,523 (-12%)	20mo	$128,000	$84	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $37,775
• Equity at exit: $122,102

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $124,206
• Equity at exit: $206,394

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39563

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $610/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,677

Max offer price $200,350

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3395 Howze St Moss Point, MS	3.0	2.0	1868	$1,500	$0.80	21d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-09
   listed $225,000 Active
2. 2021-10-02
   historical
3. 2021-10-01
   historical
4. 2017-12-05
   listed $180,000
5. 2017-01-08
   listed $199,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $610 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,778 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,167/yr (+$97/mo · 191.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$610
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$5,764
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,383
• After-tax cash flow: $-291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moss Point Separate School District
• NCES district ID: 2803000
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,041
• Composite: 16.34/100
• National rank: #9205
• State rank: #94 of 130 in MS

Livability — Moss Point

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #77
• US rank: #10398

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moss Point, MS
• City population: 12,023
• Population (ZIP): 12,023

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 74% White 18% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Current HPI: 155.3138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+12.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $225,000 MLSU
• 2021-10-02 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-10-01 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2017-12-05 Listed $180,000 MLSU
• 2017-01-08 Listed $199,900 MLSU

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $610 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.