23448 Rains Rd · Silverhill, AL 36526

$235,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,842 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1963 5,040 sqft lot $83/sqft · 59% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on a private, secluded lot, this 2,000+ sq ft home is filled with opportunity. Shaded by mature oak and pecan trees, the property offers a peaceful setting and endless potential for updates and customization. Priced to allow for your vision and tender loving care. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Mature pecan trees
• Private lot
• Mature oak trees

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• SECLUDED LOT
• MATURE OAK TREES
• MATURE PECAN TREES
• PEACEFUL SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No community features; No transfer fees

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank sewer; Electric service
• Home design: One level; Resale property
• Construction: Brick construction; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built area approximately 2,842 (assessor)
• Exterior features: Less than 1 acre lot; No waterfront; Whole/Full ownership; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $429 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.1% in Silverhill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#240 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belforest Elementary School (math 41% / reading 75%, grade C+, #72 of 627 statewide, top 12%, 1,068 students, 31% FRL); Daphne Middle School (math 25% / reading 62%, grade D, #45 of 257 statewide, top 18%, 846 students, 45% FRL); Daphne High School (math 41% / reading 40%, grade F, #33 of 305 statewide, top 11%, 1,725 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 590 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.82%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $574,154
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -59.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22969 River Rd S	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,448 (-14%)	20mo	$485,000	$198	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-13,834
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $10,875
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36526

• Home prices YoY: -21.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 590
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,330 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $984/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,788

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $235,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $235,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $235,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $235,000 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    listed $235,000 Active 326-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $984 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $984 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$984
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,237
• − Management: −$2,237
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable income: $1,331
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$319
• After-tax cash flow: $4,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Silverhill

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #240
• US rank: #17596

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 36,484
• Household income: $88,750
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 535.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 12% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.47%
• Current HPI: 227.2692
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.72%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $235,000 BCAR

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $984 · +21.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.