7563 Sea Oak Ct · Ellenton, FL 34219

$349,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,043 sqft · Land · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 2,400 sqft lot $250/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Under Construction. Sample Images of the Coral Townhome have an open-concept living. Design Included!!! The Standard features include 9'4 Ceilings, 8' Entry Door, Ceramic Tile flooring in the Kitchen, Baths, Foyer, Cafe, and Laundry. In the Kitchen, you also get Quartz countertops, Whirlpool Stainless Steel Dishwasher, Range, and Microwave vented to the exterior, 42" Upper Cabinets, and under Sink Garbage Disposal. More features are the R-38 Energy Saving Attic Insulation, Wifi ready Garage Door Opener, and 50 Gallon Hot Water Heater, Smoke, and Carbon Monoxide Detectors. Stop in to get the full list, too many to mention. The community Se

Key facts

• $250 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $281,230 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.06%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-70,479
• Equity at exit: $52,185

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-100,407
• Equity at exit: $30,261

Cash invested: $97,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,812 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $922/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,922

Max offer price $334,740

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,498
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9262 Gulf Haven Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	2043	$2,750	$1.35	14d	1	0.06mi
7566 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,700	$1.49	21d	1	0.07mi
7562 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,400	$1.67	21d	1	0.08mi
9207 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,275	$1.37	23d	1	0.28mi
9224 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1799	$2,290	$1.27	23d	1	0.31mi
9276 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2466	$4,250	$1.72	23d	1	0.37mi
7122 87th Ln E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1593	$2,750	$1.73	23d	1	0.53mi
8505 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,750	$1.47	16d	1	0.54mi
10120 Abrazo DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1122	$2,675	$2.38	2d	24	0.66mi
9432 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	16d	1	0.76mi
9009 Moccasin Wallow Rd Parrish, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$2,056	$1.30	1d	32	0.79mi
10504 Spring Tide Way Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1533	$2,500	$1.63	3d	1	0.85mi
8132 Tea Olive Ter Palmetto, FL	4.0	3.0	1698	$2,500	$1.47	23d	1	1.00mi
6345 Willowside St Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1407	$2,200	$1.56	23d	1	1.16mi
8326 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2711	$3,650	$1.35	3d	1	1.17mi
8330 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2473	$2,900	$1.17	16d	1	1.18mi
5871 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,185	$1.46	21d	1	1.28mi
8614 Mercator Ct Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2910	$3,300	$1.13	23d	1	1.33mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	3d	1	1.40mi
11332 65th Ter E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,300	$1.38	23d	1	1.47mi
6305 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2271	$2,749	$1.21	23d	1	1.47mi
11331 65th Ter E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,090	$1.25	11d	1	1.48mi
6316 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2271	$2,800	$1.23	23d	1	1.48mi
5511 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1633	$2,900	$1.78	23d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashinternetpool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-11
   soldstatus $506,700
2. 2026-02-01
   status Pending
3. 2026-02-01
   listed $349,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $922 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,905 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,983/yr (+$165/mo · 215.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$922
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,700
• − Management: −$2,700
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$7,110
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,706
• After-tax cash flow: $671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+44.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $506,700 Public Records
• 2026-02-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-01 Listed $349,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid