413 E Fourth St · Lexington-Fayette, KY 40508

$79,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1908 3,092 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent investment opportunity. Features newer plumbing upgrades and a nice flat covered porch, new kitchen countertops, sink, range, refrigerator, fresh paint, new front oversized window, and completely fenced yard. Ample off-street parking.There is not a For Sale Sign in the yard. There is a for rent sign. Selling property as-is, inspections are welcome!

Key facts

• Heat pump
• Fenced property
• On street parking

Tags

• FENCED PROPERTY
• HEAT PUMP
• ON STREET PARKING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: House; One story
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Dimensional style roof; Block and stone foundation; Built area approx. 1,128
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Many trees; Chain link and wire fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Crawl space; 5 total rooms; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $79,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$216,576) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $730 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.4% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fayette County (urban): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #27 of 165 in KY (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William Wells Brown Elementary (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #648 of 676 statewide, top 98%, 308 students, 86% FRL); Lexington Trad Magnet School (math 11% / reading 29%, grade F, #206 of 217 statewide, top 95%, 296 students, 81% FRL); Frederick Douglass High School (math 36% / reading 42%, grade F, #51 of 254 statewide, top 21%, 1,667 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 44% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fayette County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 82 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,036 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (542 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fayette County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $79k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1908 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $71,890 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1908 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.63%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,576
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
443 Chestnut St	0.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (+1%)	1mo	$109,900	$96	88
336 Ohio St	0.11mi	2/1.0	1,100 (-2%)	4mo	$159,990	$145	88
443 Ohio St	0.13mi	2/1.0	1,063 (-6%)	3mo	$151,000	$142	82
331 Wilgus Ave	0.07mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,260 (+12%)	1mo	$242,500	$192	69
650 N Martin Luther King Blvd	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,090 (-3%)	3mo	$215,000	$197	60
570 Ohio St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,014 (-10%)	1mo	$145,000	$143	60
380 Nelson Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,252 (+11%)	2mo	$285,000	$228	58
635 N Martin Luther King Blvd	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,035 (-8%)	2mo	$185,000	$179	57
635 Breckenridge St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+10%)	3mo	$100,000	$81	46
818 Idlewild Ct	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,261 (+12%)	5mo	$253,607	$201	42
643 E Loudon Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,202 (+7%)	7mo	$270,000	$225	40
220 W 6th St	0.63mi	2/2.0	960 (-15%)	4mo	$221,000	$230	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $41,696
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.99×
• Total profit: $132,526
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40508

• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,514 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $223/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $730

Break-even live

Break-even rent $590

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
425 Hawkins Ave Lexington, KY	3.0	1.5	1124	$1,570	$1.40	14d	1	0.05mi
426 E Fifth St Unit Z1 Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	719	$1,195	$1.66	23d	1	0.14mi
246 Warnock St Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	810	$1,195	$1.48	23d	1	0.19mi
500 Ohio St Unit 3 Lexington, KY	1.0	1.0	825	$695	$0.84	14d	1	0.19mi
236 Warnock St Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1028	$2,200	$2.14	23d	1	0.20mi
434 N Martin Luther King Blvd #201 Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	23d	1	0.31mi
231 Walton Ave Unit 206 Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	1178	$1,700	$1.44	23d	1	0.39mi
211 E Sixth St Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	23d	1	0.41mi
658 Elm Tree Ln Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	23d	1	0.45mi
214 E Seventh St Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	832	$1,000	$1.20	23d	1	0.52mi
653 Jackson St Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	839	$1,295	$1.54	14d	1	0.52mi
706 Lancaster Ave Lexington, KY	3.0	3.0	1050	$1,495	$1.42	14d	1	0.52mi
143 Woodland Ave Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	23d	1	0.62mi
222 W Sixth St Lexington, KY	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,150	$1.10	23d	1	0.65mi
120 E Main St Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0–2.0	710	$2,486	$3.50	14d	20	0.65mi
444 N Broadway Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1160	$1,595	$1.38	23d	1	0.68mi
341 Grosvenor Ave Unit 1 Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	700	$2,050	$2.93	23d	1	0.71mi
341 Grosvenor Ave #4 Lexington, KY	3.0	3.0	859	$2,600	$3.03	23d	1	0.71mi
341 Grosvenor Ave Unit 3 Lexington, KY	3.0	3.0	875	$2,500	$2.86	23d	1	0.71mi
170 E Loudon Ave Unit 2 Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,350	$0.90	23d	1	0.72mi
325 W 6th St Lexington, KY	1.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	23d	1	0.72mi
161 E Loudon Ave Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	1118	$1,300	$1.16	23d	1	0.75mi
51 Mentelle Park Unit 4 Lexington, KY	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,060	$1.06	14d	1	0.75mi
261 S Limestone #303 Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	1102	$2,995	$2.72	23d	1	0.88mi
330 Rose St Lexington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	627	$1,450	$2.31	23d	1	0.89mi
275 S Limestone #135 Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1142	$2,950	$2.58	14d	1	0.89mi
275 S Limestone #115 Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	1010	$2,500	$2.48	23d	1	0.89mi
303 Owsley Ave Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1188	$2,100	$1.77	14d	1	0.89mi
811 Shelby Ave Unit Z1 Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	792	$1,224	$1.55	14d	1	0.92mi
115 W Loudon Ave Unit L97 Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	960	$980	$1.02	23d	1	0.94mi
444 Jefferson St Unit A Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	1220	$1,950	$1.60	14d	1	0.95mi
355 S Broadway #305 Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	1436	$2,900	$2.02	23d	1	1.01mi
161 Preston Ave #3 Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	14d	1	1.06mi
345 Blackburn Ave Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	946	$1,925	$2.03	14d	1	1.08mi
1105 Sparks Rd Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1302	$1,575	$1.21	23d	1	1.10mi
232 Bassett Ave Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	989	$1,495	$1.51	14d	1	1.12mi
458 Morgan Ave Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1275	$1,325	$1.04	23d	1	1.16mi
1120 Sparks Rd Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	21d	1	1.17mi
411 Morgan Ave Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,600	$1.38	21d	1	1.18mi
585 S Upper St #114 Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,995	$2.00	23d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-05-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   price $79,000
3. 2026-04-07
   price $85,000
4. 2026-02-16
   listed $99,500 Active
5. 2024-04-18
   historical $800
6. 2024-04-10
   listed $800
7. 2024-04-10
   historical $800
8. 2024-03-13
   listed $800
9. 2024-01-26
   historical $800
10. 2023-10-20
    listed $800
11. 2022-07-09
    price $795
12. 2021-10-19
    historical
13. 2021-08-26
    listed $96,000 Active
14. 2019-05-29
    soldstatus $45,000
15. 2019-05-28
    soldstatus $52,000 Sold 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity. Features newer plumbing upgrades and a nice flat covered porch, new kitchen countertops, sink, range, refrigerator, fresh paint, new front oversized window, and completely fenced yard. Ample off-street parking.There is not a For Sale Sign in the yard. There is a for rent sign. Selling property as-is, inspections are welcome!

16. 2019-05-23
    status Pending 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity. Features newer plumbing upgrades and a nice flat covered porch, new kitchen countertops, sink, range, refrigerator, fresh paint, new front oversized window, and completely fenced yard. Ample off-street parking.There is not a For Sale Sign in the yard. There is a for rent sign. Selling property as-is, inspections are welcome!

17. 2019-04-01
    price $52,000 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity. Features newer plumbing upgrades and a nice flat covered porch, new kitchen countertops, sink, range, refrigerator, fresh paint, new front oversized window, and completely fenced yard. Ample off-street parking.There is not a For Sale Sign in the yard. There is a for rent sign. Selling property as-is, inspections are welcome!

18. 2019-01-11
    listed $57,000 Active 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity. Features newer plumbing upgrades and a nice flat covered porch, new kitchen countertops, sink, range, refrigerator, fresh paint, new front oversized window, and completely fenced yard. Ample off-street parking.There is not a For Sale Sign in the yard. There is a for rent sign. Selling property as-is, inspections are welcome!

19. 2018-10-04
    soldstatus $33,600
20. 2018-09-25
    soldstatus $27,500
21. 2008-12-11
    soldstatus $18,500
22. 2008-12-01
    soldstatus $17,836
23. 2007-07-23
    soldstatus $20,000
24. 2005-03-30
    soldstatus $15,100
25. 2005-03-25
    historical
26. 2005-01-26
    listed $19,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $223 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $679 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$456/yr (+$38/mo · 204.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,171
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$223
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,454
• − Management: −$1,454
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $7,922
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,901
• After-tax cash flow: $6,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fayette County
• NCES district ID: 2101860
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,245
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5211
• State rank: #27 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lexington-Fayette

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• County: Fayette County · 317,143 people
• City population: 321,882
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 23,756
• Household income: $29,440
• Rent vs Own: 70.5% rent · 29.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2644.0

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 363,454 people
• By 2030: 388,270 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 438,688 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 490,667 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 625,394 · +72.1%
• By 2100: 721,354 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: D (+18.1) · D 58.0% · R 39.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.3pp toward D · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: 18.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.1 2020: D+20.8 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -251.04%
• Current HPI: 204.3994
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.83%
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+297.0% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $79,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $85,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $99,500 ImagineMLS
• 2024-04-18 Rental Removed $800 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-10 Listed for Rent $800 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-10 Rental Removed $800 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-13 Listed for Rent $800 APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-26 Rental Removed $800 APPFOLIO
• 2023-10-20 Listed for Rent $800 APPFOLIO
• 2022-07-09 Price Changed $795 APPFOLIO
• 2021-10-19 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2021-08-26 Listed $96,000 ImagineMLS
• 2019-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-28 Sold (MLS) $52,000 ImagineMLS
• 2019-05-23 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2019-04-01 Price Changed $52,000 ImagineMLS
• 2019-01-11 Listed $57,000 ImagineMLS
• 2018-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $33,600 Public Records
• 2018-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records
• 2008-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records
• 2008-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,836 Public Records
• 2007-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-30 Sold (MLS) $15,100 ImagineMLS
• 2005-03-25 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2005-01-26 Listed $19,900 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2015): $223 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.