25405 N Cedar Dr · Paulden, AZ 86334

$95,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1976 9,147 sqft lot $143/sqft · 50% below area Est $190k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special in the peaceful high-desert community of Paulden. This 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers 672 square feet of opportunity on a generously sized, fully fenced lot. The property features a large yard with room for expansion, toys, or additional improvements, plus an above-ground pool set on a concrete slab with a solar-heated cover. Inside, the home offers a cozy living space with wood stove and open layout ready for updates and customization. With some TLC, this property could become a great rental, flip, or affordable desert retreat. Quiet rural setting with wide-open views and plenty of potential!

Key facts

• Solar-heated cover
• Wood stove
• Large yard

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LOT
• LARGE YARD
• ABOVE-GROUND POOL
• CONCRETE SLAB
• SOLAR-HEATED COVER
• WOOD STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $96k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $96k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 3.0% in Paulden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#202 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Chino Valley Unified District (4474) (town): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #112 of 249 in AZ (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $663 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $96k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,269 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.84%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,165
• List price: $95,900
• Delta: -49.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
315 E Birchwood Dr	0.15mi	1/1.0	673 (+0%)	14mo	$153,000	$227	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $9,906
• Equity at exit: $14,299

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $41,448
• Equity at exit: $8,292

Cash invested: $26,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86334

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,344 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$120 /mo · $1,438/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $839

Max offer price $95,900

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,975
• Closing costs: $2,877
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,900 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,900 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,900 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,900 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,900 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,900 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,900 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,900 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,900 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,900 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,900 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,900 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,900 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,900 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,900 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,900 Active 85 DOM
17. 2026-04-10
    price $95,900 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    Investor special in the peaceful high-desert community of Paulden. This 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers 672 square feet of opportunity on a generously sized, fully fenced lot. The property features a large yard with room for expansion, toys, or additional improvements, plus an above-ground pool set on a concrete slab with a solar-heated cover. Inside, the home offers a cozy living space with wood stove and open layout ready for updates and customization. With some TLC, this property could become a great rental, flip, or affordable desert retreat. Quiet rural setting with wide-open views and plenty of potential!

18. 2026-03-06
    listed $99,900 Active 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    Investor special in the peaceful high-desert community of Paulden. This 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers 672 square feet of opportunity on a generously sized, fully fenced lot. The property features a large yard with room for expansion, toys, or additional improvements, plus an above-ground pool set on a concrete slab with a solar-heated cover. Inside, the home offers a cozy living space with wood stove and open layout ready for updates and customization. With some TLC, this property could become a great rental, flip, or affordable desert retreat. Quiet rural setting with wide-open views and plenty of potential!

19. 2025-07-31
    historical
20. 2025-07-11
    price $125,000
21. 2025-05-17
    price $140,000
22. 2025-04-17
    price $150,000
23. 2025-02-18
    listed $165,000 Active
24. 2025-01-13
    historical
25. 2024-12-26
    price $165,000
26. 2024-07-12
    listed $180,000 Active
27. 2024-07-09
    historical
28. 2024-06-10
    price $180,000
29. 2024-02-13
    price $190,000
30. 2024-01-12
    listed $200,000 Active
31. 2005-11-03
    soldstatus $36,900
32. 2003-07-16
    soldstatus $18,500
33. 1989-03-16
    soldstatus $4,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,372
• − Property taxes: −$1,438
• − Insurance: −$480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,290
• − Management: −$1,290
• − Depreciation: −$2,790
• Taxable income: $3,470
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$833
• After-tax cash flow: $3,958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chino Valley Unified District (4474)
• NCES district ID: 0400003
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,429
• Composite: 25.22/100
• National rank: #7505
• State rank: #112 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Paulden

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #202
• US rank: #20477

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paulden, AZ
• City population: 4,309
• Population (ZIP): 4,309

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.07%
• Current HPI: 433.9478
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+2297.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $95,900 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listed $99,900 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $125,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $140,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-17 Price Changed $150,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-18 Listed $165,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-13 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-26 Price Changed $165,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-12 Listed $180,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-09 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-10 Price Changed $180,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-13 Price Changed $190,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-12 Listed $200,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $36,900 Public Records
• 2003-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records
• 1989-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $4,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $69 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.