58 Old Stonehouse Rd S · New Kingstown, PA 17015

$180,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1986 0.65 ac lot $87/sqft · 59% below area Est $326k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Offer submission deadline is Monday, May 4 at 6:30 PM. Cash or Conventional only. No FHA, VA or USDA. Investor Alert! Solid ranch style home in Cumberland Valley School District. Home needs work to bring it back to its original glory. Garage has been coverted into storage room and a 4th bedroom. A second bath was installed in the basement but needs to be updated. Basement is a walk out. Covered deck off the kitchen is in good shape. A screened porch was added to the front of the home. Roof was replaced in 2013. Photos will be uploaded prior to going active.

Key facts

• 0.65 acre lot
• 6 parking spots
• Built 1986

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $752 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.8% in New Kingstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,606 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Cumberland Valley SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #52 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $180k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.90%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,861
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -44.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1243 Hillside Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,146 (+3%)	5mo	$315,000	$147	62
12 Mary Ave	0.43mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,132 (+2%)	12mo	$386,000	$181	60
1264 W Trindle Rd	0.66mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,344 (+13%)	19mo	$369,900	$158	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $18,752
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $78,130
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17015

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,520 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,638/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $752

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,568

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $854	-5% $803	+0% $752	+5% $701	+10% $650
Rent	-10% $553	-5% $652	+0% $752	+5% $851	+10% $951
Rate	-1.0pp $842	-0.5pp $798	base $752	+0.5pp $705	+1.0pp $658

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 564-char remark

   Show marketing remark (564 chars)

   Offer submission deadline is Monday, May 4 at 6:30 PM. Cash or Conventional only. No FHA, VA or USDA. Investor Alert! Solid ranch style home in Cumberland Valley School District. Home needs work to bring it back to its original glory. Garage has been coverted into storage room and a 4th bedroom. A second bath was installed in the basement but needs to be updated. Basement is a walk out. Covered deck off the kitchen is in good shape. A screened porch was added to the front of the home. Roof was replaced in 2013. Photos will be uploaded prior to going active.

2. 2026-05-01
   listed $180,000 Active 564-char remark

   Show marketing remark (564 chars)

   Offer submission deadline is Monday, May 4 at 6:30 PM. Cash or Conventional only. No FHA, VA or USDA. Investor Alert! Solid ranch style home in Cumberland Valley School District. Home needs work to bring it back to its original glory. Garage has been coverted into storage room and a 4th bedroom. A second bath was installed in the basement but needs to be updated. Basement is a walk out. Covered deck off the kitchen is in good shape. A screened porch was added to the front of the home. Roof was replaced in 2013. Photos will be uploaded prior to going active.

3. 2026-04-20
   historical $180,000 564-char remark

   Show marketing remark (564 chars)

   Offer submission deadline is Monday, May 4 at 6:30 PM. Cash or Conventional only. No FHA, VA or USDA. Investor Alert! Solid ranch style home in Cumberland Valley School District. Home needs work to bring it back to its original glory. Garage has been coverted into storage room and a 4th bedroom. A second bath was installed in the basement but needs to be updated. Basement is a walk out. Covered deck off the kitchen is in good shape. A screened porch was added to the front of the home. Roof was replaced in 2013. Photos will be uploaded prior to going active.

4. 1986-07-02
   soldstatus $68,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,638 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,741 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: +$103/yr (+$9/mo · 3.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,237
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,638
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,419
• − Management: −$2,419
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $6,542
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,570
• After-tax cash flow: $7,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207110
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $78,135
• Composite: 55.77/100
• National rank: #1218
• State rank: #52 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Kingstown

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1606
• US rank: #21798

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,385
• Household income: $86,981
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.66%
• Current HPI: 265.9175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+162.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $180,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-20 Coming Soon $180,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1986-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $68,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,638 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.