1777 Pond River Rd · Elkton, KY 42220

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Other public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2001 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy easy country living with quick access to small-town charm and major city conveniences. This 2-bedroom, 2-full-bath mobile home is located just minutes from the historic Elkton town square and the iconic old-time soda shop. Commuters will love the straightforward drive to Hopkinsville, as well as the Tennessee state line, opening up effortless routes to the extensive shopping, dining, and entertainment options in Clarksville and Nashville. From the moment you arrive, the properties thoughtful layout stands out. A covered front porch comes complete with a relaxing hammock, offering the perfect spot to unwind and enjoy the quiet surroundings. Accessibility is a breeze thanks to both stan

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Extensive shopping
• Thoughtful layout

Tags

• HISTORIC ELKTON TOWN SQUARE
• EXTENSIVE SHOPPING
• DINING OPTIONS
• ENTERTAINMENT OPTIONS
• THOUGHTFUL LAYOUT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.24 acres (calculated from plat)
• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking; Driveway; Gravel parking; 1 covered space; 3 open parking spaces; 1-car carport (1 space) — included in total of 4 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water available; Septic tank; Water available
• Home design: Residential mobile home; One level
• Construction: Other construction materials; Other roof; Other foundation details; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Porch; Covered porch; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Extra closets

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $682 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 3.4% in Elkton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#419 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Todd County (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #99 of 165 in KY (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Todd Elementary School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #255 of 676 statewide, top 42%, 413 students, 60% FRL); Todd County Central High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #202 of 254 statewide, top 82%, 551 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 42 units permitted in Todd County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Todd County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $120k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.36%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $23,947
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $76,580
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42220

• Home prices YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $250/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $682

Break-even live

Break-even rent $886

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-27
    listed $120,000 Active
16. 2016-09-13
    soldstatus $30,000
17. 2001-02-01
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $250 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,032 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$782/yr (+$65/mo · 313.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,996
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$250
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $6,574
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,578
• After-tax cash flow: $6,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Todd County
• NCES district ID: 2105550
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $39,989
• Composite: 26.01/100
• National rank: #7315
• State rank: #99 of 165 in KY

Livability — Elkton

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #20187

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,795

Population outlook (Todd County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,073 people
• By 2030: 11,770 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 11,082 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 10,250 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 8,037 · -33.4%
• By 2100: 5,654 · -53.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Todd

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.9) · D 20.6% · R 78.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -36.3pp · 2024: -57.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.9 2020: R+53.3 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.1 2008: R+36.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.23%
• Current HPI: 291.83
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+1233.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $120,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2001-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $250 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.