1011 Elizabeth Ln · Lakeland, FL 33809

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1983 5,615 sqft lot $285/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large home (1440 sq. ft) with land. Solid plywood floors with nice floor coverings (carpet, vinyl, laminate and ceramic). Bay windows in living room across front of home have been replaced with double pane windows. Inside laundry. Metal insulated roof. Tie downs upgraded including carport cables. Small sitting porch off master bedroom with glass windows. The home is located in Lakeside Hills Estates which is a 55+ resident owned community in North Lakeland. The HOA fees include lawn care, basic cable, water and use of the community amenities, such as heated pool, spa, game room with pool tables, craft room with pottery kiln, exercise room overlooking the pool, and boat dock right on Lake Gibson.

Key facts

• Attached workshop
• Screened porch
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• NEW VINYL FLOORING
• BUILT-IN DINING CABINETRY
• CENTRAL ISLAND WITH COOKTOP
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• SCREENED PORCH
• ATTACHED WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-610/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (5.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 259 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $165k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.32%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-33,734
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-48,233
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33809

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,707 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,167/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$285
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,772

Max offer price $156,021

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5233 US Highway 98 N Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$1,505	$1.89	2d	15	0.41mi
907 Swann Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,960	$1.22	14d	1	0.46mi
5227 Grace St E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$1,775	$1.67	23d	1	0.46mi
1510 Galloway Oaks Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1066	$1,376	$1.29	21d	8	0.54mi
733 Carpenters Way #37 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	1307	$1,400	$1.07	19d	1	0.68mi
4500 Williamstown Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,508	$1.42	23d	1	0.74mi
1545 Kennedy Blvd Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,682	$1.69	2d	24	0.76mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr #106 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1038	$1,700	$1.64	23d	1	0.77mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1083	$1,450	$1.34	13d	2	0.77mi
4048 Chelsea Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1697	$2,320	$1.37	3d	1	0.81mi
3939 Golf Village Loop Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,619	$1.84	3d	6	0.92mi
4083 Dover Terrace Dr Unit 4083 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,975	$1.12	23d	1	1.00mi
3805 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,900	$1.07	14d	1	1.10mi
3867 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,795	$1.10	3d	1	1.11mi
3824 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,795	$1.01	2d	1	1.12mi
3842 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,800	$1.10	13d	1	1.15mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	14d	1	1.19mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	23d	1	1.19mi
6120 Burnett St Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,910	$1.91	3d	21	1.19mi
909 Shirley Ann Trl Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,460	$1.54	23d	1	1.22mi
4111 Solamor St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1619	$2,400	$1.48	14d	1	1.26mi
6031 Crafton Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	914	$1,125	$1.23	13d	1	1.27mi
6032 Norton Rd Unit 6032 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	880	$1,295	$1.47	23d	1	1.27mi
5818 Bambi Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,200	$1.57	23d	1	1.31mi
6131 Doe Cir E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,700	$1.26	14d	1	1.34mi
206 Mary Catherine Ct Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,725	$1.38	23d	1	1.40mi
3685 Victoria Manor Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1154	$1,507	$1.31	3d	17	1.46mi
165 Shannon Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,350	$1.34	3d	1	1.46mi
3852 Hampton Hills Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1861	$1,950	$1.05	10d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $285 · $3,420/yr
• Likely covers: watercablelandscapingpool

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-20
   listed $165,000 Active
3. 2017-03-21
   soldstatus $72,500
4. 2017-03-17
   soldstatus $72,500 Sold 704-char remark

   Show marketing remark (704 chars)

   Large home (1440 sq. ft) with land. Solid plywood floors with nice floor coverings (carpet, vinyl, laminate and ceramic). Bay windows in living room across front of home have been replaced with double pane windows. Inside laundry. Metal insulated roof. Tie downs upgraded including carport cables. Small sitting porch off master bedroom with glass windows. The home is located in Lakeside Hills Estates which is a 55+ resident owned community in North Lakeland. The HOA fees include lawn care, basic cable, water and use of the community amenities, such as heated pool, spa, game room with pool tables, craft room with pottery kiln, exercise room overlooking the pool, and boat dock right on Lake Gibson.

5. 2017-02-09
   status Pending 704-char remark

   Show marketing remark (704 chars)

   Large home (1440 sq. ft) with land. Solid plywood floors with nice floor coverings (carpet, vinyl, laminate and ceramic). Bay windows in living room across front of home have been replaced with double pane windows. Inside laundry. Metal insulated roof. Tie downs upgraded including carport cables. Small sitting porch off master bedroom with glass windows. The home is located in Lakeside Hills Estates which is a 55+ resident owned community in North Lakeland. The HOA fees include lawn care, basic cable, water and use of the community amenities, such as heated pool, spa, game room with pool tables, craft room with pottery kiln, exercise room overlooking the pool, and boat dock right on Lake Gibson.

6. 2016-12-16
   listed $76,000 Active 704-char remark

   Show marketing remark (704 chars)

   Large home (1440 sq. ft) with land. Solid plywood floors with nice floor coverings (carpet, vinyl, laminate and ceramic). Bay windows in living room across front of home have been replaced with double pane windows. Inside laundry. Metal insulated roof. Tie downs upgraded including carport cables. Small sitting porch off master bedroom with glass windows. The home is located in Lakeside Hills Estates which is a 55+ resident owned community in North Lakeland. The HOA fees include lawn care, basic cable, water and use of the community amenities, such as heated pool, spa, game room with pool tables, craft room with pottery kiln, exercise room overlooking the pool, and boat dock right on Lake Gibson.

7. 1996-04-15
   soldstatus $54,500
8. 1989-12-01
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,167 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,167 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,167
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,639
• − Management: −$1,639
• − HOA: −$3,420
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$3,245
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$779
• After-tax cash flow: $169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,797
• Household income: $70,066
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.46%
• Current HPI: 301.3054
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-20 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records
• 2017-03-17 Sold (MLS) $72,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-16 Listed $76,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records
• 1989-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,167 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.