178 Twin Lakes Dr · Pocono Woodland Lakes, PA 18458

$182,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,809 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1977 0.61 ac lot $101/sqft · 50% below area Est $361k · 50% under $53/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Endless possibilities to make this your dream home in the mountains, weekend getaway or investment property. Could be your next project in need of some TLC and love

Key facts

• 0.61 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $182k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $312 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $182k).
• Recommended offer: $171k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.3% in Pocono Woodland Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#702 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $51k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $182k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,080 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.34%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,431
• List price: $182,000
• Delta: -49.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Beach Pl	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,024 (+12%)	13mo	$350,000	$173	52
125 Jacob Weber Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,048 (+13%)	21mo	$385,500	$188	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $119,132
• Equity at exit: $163,960

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.58×
• Total profit: $335,525
• Equity at exit: $353,586

Cash invested: $50,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18458

• Home prices YoY: 13.2%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,242 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$954
• Tax from tax record: −$376 /mo · $4,513/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$53
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,847

Max offer price $182,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $415	-5% $363	+0% $312	+5% $260	+10% $209
Rent	-10% $135	-5% $223	+0% $312	+5% $400	+10% $489
Rate	-1.0pp $403	-0.5pp $358	base $312	+0.5pp $265	+1.0pp $217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,500
• Closing costs: $5,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $53 · $636/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $182,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $182,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $182,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $182,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $182,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $182,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $182,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $182,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $182,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $182,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $182,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $182,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $182,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $182,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    listed $182,000 Active 164-char remark

    Show marketing remark (164 chars)

    Endless possibilities to make this your dream home in the mountains, weekend getaway or investment property. Could be your next project in need of some TLC and love

16. 1996-06-18
    soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,513 · $376/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,513 · $376/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,902
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,195
• − Property taxes: −$4,513
• − Insurance: −$910
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,152
• − Management: −$2,152
• − HOA: −$636
• − Depreciation: −$5,295
• Taxable income: $1,049
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$252
• After-tax cash flow: $3,489/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Pocono Woodland Lakes

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #702
• US rank: #6907

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 15,517
• Population (ZIP): 3,576

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.80%
• Current HPI: 272.6294
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+102.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $182,000 PMAR
• 1996-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,513 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.