4423 Mossygate Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$200,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,641 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 342 Days on market

Built 1979 6,647 sqft lot $122/sqft · at area comps Est $210k · at est. $28/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the charm of this beautifully updated home nestled in the heart of Spring! From the moment you arrive, you’ll love the inviting curb appeal and the spacious open layout inside — perfect for creating unforgettable memories with family and friends. The living area is filled with natural light and flows effortlessly into the kitchen, ideal for entertaining or quiet mornings with coffee. Step outside and enjoy a huge backyard with no rear neighbors — imagine weekend BBQs, space for kids or pets to play, or simply relaxing in peace. Located minutes from I-45, Hardy Toll Rd, and Bush Airport, this home offers unbeatable convenience with a quiet suburban feel. Whether you’re upsizing, downsizing, or buying your first home, this move-in-ready gem is the opportunity you’ve been waiting for.

Key facts

• No rear neighbors
• Quiet suburban feel
• Huge backyard

Tags

• HUGE BACKYARD
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• SPACIOUS OPEN LAYOUT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• MINUTES FROM I-45
• QUIET SUBURBAN FEEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 342 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 342 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.58%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,483
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -4.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4214 Chestergate Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,637 (-0%)	13mo	$199,990	$122	71
4227 Mossygate Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,609 (-2%)	10mo	$150,000	$93	69
4211 Hirschfield Rd	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,686 (+3%)	8mo	$199,000	$118	58
4522 Quailgate Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-9%)	20mo	$199,999	$133	56
2306 Juniper Hedge Cir	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,634 (-0%)	15mo	$266,990	$163	54
23130 Royal Tiger Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,533 (-7%)	21mo	$249,000	$162	49
23207 Naples Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,558 (-5%)	16mo	$165,000	$106	41
23110 Ludgate Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-10%)	13mo	$220,000	$149	37
3902 Adonis Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,462 (-11%)	13mo	$229,000	$157	36
22911 Pebworth Pl	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-10%)	14mo	$165,000	$112	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-28,140
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-35,396
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,231 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$435 /mo · $5,220/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,019

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2911 Cypress Island Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2240	$2,016	$0.90	7d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 342 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 341 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 340 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 339 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 337 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 336 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 333 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 332 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 331 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 328 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 327 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 326 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 325 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 324 DOM
15. 2026-03-24
    price $200,000 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Discover the charm of this beautifully updated home nestled in the heart of Spring! From the moment you arrive, you’ll love the inviting curb appeal and the spacious open layout inside — perfect for creating unforgettable memories with family and friends. The living area is filled with natural light and flows effortlessly into the kitchen, ideal for entertaining or quiet mornings with coffee. Step outside and enjoy a huge backyard with no rear neighbors — imagine weekend BBQs, space for kids or pets to play, or simply relaxing in peace. Located minutes from I-45, Hardy Toll Rd, and Bush Airport, this home offers unbeatable convenience with a quiet suburban feel. Whether you’re upsizing, downsizing, or buying your first home, this move-in-ready gem is the opportunity you’ve been waiting for.

16. 2025-11-20
    price $211,900 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Discover the charm of this beautifully updated home nestled in the heart of Spring! From the moment you arrive, you’ll love the inviting curb appeal and the spacious open layout inside — perfect for creating unforgettable memories with family and friends. The living area is filled with natural light and flows effortlessly into the kitchen, ideal for entertaining or quiet mornings with coffee. Step outside and enjoy a huge backyard with no rear neighbors — imagine weekend BBQs, space for kids or pets to play, or simply relaxing in peace. Located minutes from I-45, Hardy Toll Rd, and Bush Airport, this home offers unbeatable convenience with a quiet suburban feel. Whether you’re upsizing, downsizing, or buying your first home, this move-in-ready gem is the opportunity you’ve been waiting for.

17. 2025-09-29
    price $214,900 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Discover the charm of this beautifully updated home nestled in the heart of Spring! From the moment you arrive, you’ll love the inviting curb appeal and the spacious open layout inside — perfect for creating unforgettable memories with family and friends. The living area is filled with natural light and flows effortlessly into the kitchen, ideal for entertaining or quiet mornings with coffee. Step outside and enjoy a huge backyard with no rear neighbors — imagine weekend BBQs, space for kids or pets to play, or simply relaxing in peace. Located minutes from I-45, Hardy Toll Rd, and Bush Airport, this home offers unbeatable convenience with a quiet suburban feel. Whether you’re upsizing, downsizing, or buying your first home, this move-in-ready gem is the opportunity you’ve been waiting for.

18. 2025-07-15
    price $219,900 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Discover the charm of this beautifully updated home nestled in the heart of Spring! From the moment you arrive, you’ll love the inviting curb appeal and the spacious open layout inside — perfect for creating unforgettable memories with family and friends. The living area is filled with natural light and flows effortlessly into the kitchen, ideal for entertaining or quiet mornings with coffee. Step outside and enjoy a huge backyard with no rear neighbors — imagine weekend BBQs, space for kids or pets to play, or simply relaxing in peace. Located minutes from I-45, Hardy Toll Rd, and Bush Airport, this home offers unbeatable convenience with a quiet suburban feel. Whether you’re upsizing, downsizing, or buying your first home, this move-in-ready gem is the opportunity you’ve been waiting for.

19. 2025-07-11
    listed $214,900 Active 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Discover the charm of this beautifully updated home nestled in the heart of Spring! From the moment you arrive, you’ll love the inviting curb appeal and the spacious open layout inside — perfect for creating unforgettable memories with family and friends. The living area is filled with natural light and flows effortlessly into the kitchen, ideal for entertaining or quiet mornings with coffee. Step outside and enjoy a huge backyard with no rear neighbors — imagine weekend BBQs, space for kids or pets to play, or simply relaxing in peace. Located minutes from I-45, Hardy Toll Rd, and Bush Airport, this home offers unbeatable convenience with a quiet suburban feel. Whether you’re upsizing, downsizing, or buying your first home, this move-in-ready gem is the opportunity you’ve been waiting for.

20. 2013-04-16
    soldstatus Sold 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    HUD Home. 2 story home features 3 bedrooms, 2.1 baths, dining area, open kitchen, living room with fire place, all bedrooms up, master bath has one sink and shower only, laundry in garage, 2 car garage and fenced back yard with patio/deck.

21. 2013-03-04
    status Pending 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    HUD Home. 2 story home features 3 bedrooms, 2.1 baths, dining area, open kitchen, living room with fire place, all bedrooms up, master bath has one sink and shower only, laundry in garage, 2 car garage and fenced back yard with patio/deck.

22. 2013-02-22
    listed $52,000 Active 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    HUD Home. 2 story home features 3 bedrooms, 2.1 baths, dining area, open kitchen, living room with fire place, all bedrooms up, master bath has one sink and shower only, laundry in garage, 2 car garage and fenced back yard with patio/deck.

23. 2009-09-18
    soldstatus
24. 2009-07-23
    historical
25. 2009-07-06
    listed $78,900
26. 2006-04-13
    soldstatus
27. 1996-04-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,220 · $435/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,220 · $435/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$5,220
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,141
• − Management: −$2,141
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,092
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$262
• After-tax cash flow: $2,267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+153.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $211,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $214,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-11 Listed $214,900 HARMLS
• 2013-04-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-03-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-02-22 Listed $52,000 HARMLS
• 2009-09-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-07-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-07-06 Listed $78,900 HARMLS
• 2006-04-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,220 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.