Alder Plan · Cape Coral, FL 33909

$249,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,816 sqft · Townhouse · 956 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 956 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $249,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home (Alder plan); New construction inventory type: Plan
• Construction: Built as part of the Alder plan
• Exterior features: Located at 1412 Weeping Willow Ct, Cape Coral FL 33909

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area of 1816; Plan: Alder (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $249,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $288,744.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-212 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.1% in Cape Coral — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#208 in FL, #3,098 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Diplomat Elementary School (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #564 of 2,144 statewide, top 27%, 1,069 students, 56% FRL); Mariner Middle School (math 50% / reading 47%, grade C-, #274 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 1,001 students, 53% FRL); Ida S. Baker High School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,933 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.6%/yr); 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.15%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $288,744
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1520 Fells Cove Ln	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,816 (0%)	10mo	$249,990	$138	86
1605 Lake Jessup Cir	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,816 (0%)	5mo	$275,000	$151	86
1665 Lake Jessup Cir	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,816 (0%)	10mo	$255,000	$140	83
1666 Lake Jessup Cir	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,816 (0%)	11mo	$255,000	$140	81
1483 Weeping Willow Ct	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,636 (-10%)	12mo	$259,990	$159	67
1475 Weeping Willow Ct	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,636 (-10%)	15mo	$259,990	$159	65
1550 Fells Cove Ln	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,657 (-9%)	22mo	$295,000	$178	59
1479 Weeping Willow Ct	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,636 (-10%)	22mo	$276,990	$169	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-66,876
• Equity at exit: $43,053

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-101,053
• Equity at exit: $24,965

Cash invested: $80,848 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33909

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.6%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,257 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,514
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$361 /mo · $4,331/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,526

Max offer price $258,061

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-12	-5% $-112	+0% $-212	+5% $-312	+10% $-412
Rent	-10% $-390	-5% $-301	+0% $-212	+5% $-123	+10% $-34
Rate	-1.0pp $-67	-0.5pp $-139	base $-212	+0.5pp $-287	+1.0pp $-363

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,186
• Closing costs: $8,662
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1424 Weeping Willow Ct Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.5	1679	$1,999	$1.19	25d	1	0.06mi
1302 Weeping Willow Ct Unit 1302 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.5	1551	$2,220	$1.43	4d	1	0.14mi
1545 Lake Jessup Cir Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.5	1831	$2,350	$1.28	25d	1	0.17mi
1541 Fells Cove Ln Unit 1541 Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.5	1657	$2,400	$1.45	5d	1	0.20mi
1541 Fells Cove Ln Unit 1541 Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.5	1657	$2,400	$1.45	15d	1	0.20mi
1672 Lake Jessup Cir Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.5	1729	$2,200	$1.27	12d	1	0.23mi
2531 Sawgrass Lake Ct Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	2600	$2,650	$1.02	18d	1	0.24mi
3223 NE 14th Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1765	$2,200	$1.25	25d	1	0.35mi
13700 Oak St North Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1023	$2,465	$2.41	5d	32	0.54mi
921 Jacaranda Pkwy E Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	2081	$2,099	$1.01	25d	1	0.58mi
1724 NE 26th Ter Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,925	$1.05	18d	1	0.73mi
1788 Concordia Lake Cir Cape Coral, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1329	$3,800	$2.86	13d	2	0.74mi
1800 Concordia Lake Cir #610 Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1680	$3,300	$1.96	25d	1	0.76mi
1015 NE 34th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1760	$2,300	$1.31	25d	1	0.79mi
1532 NE 35th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1809	$1,995	$1.10	25d	1	0.84mi
3026 NE 6th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1683	$2,095	$1.24	25d	1	0.93mi
1871 Concordia Lake Cir #301 Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,650	$1.12	5d	1	0.93mi
1842 Concordia Lake Cir #1110 Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,695	$1.05	25d	1	0.93mi
3511 NE 17th Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1717	$2,350	$1.37	21d	1	0.96mi
2925 NE 6th Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1651	$2,000	$1.21	25d	1	0.96mi
1706 Kismet Pkwy E Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,950	$1.38	16d	1	0.97mi
3512 NE 17th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1650	$1,995	$1.21	4d	1	0.98mi
3462 NE 10th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1665	$3,000	$1.80	25d	1	0.99mi
2728 NE 6th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1760	$1,795	$1.02	4d	1	1.01mi
2022 NE 25th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,300	$1.44	5d	1	1.05mi
3445 NE 8th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1734	$2,200	$1.27	25d	1	1.07mi
827 NE 23rd Ter Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1412	$1,850	$1.31	5d	1	1.11mi
2122 NE 13th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,850	$1.45	25d	1	1.13mi
2213 NE 33rd St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,800	$1.30	25d	1	1.16mi
2112 NE 14th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,941	$1.32	5d	1	1.17mi
3610 NE 9th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,995	$1.12	16d	1	1.19mi
2108 NE 15th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,266	$1.59	5d	1	1.19mi
2116 NE 25th St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,891	$1.40	5d	1	1.21mi
3527 NE 19th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1574	$2,000	$1.27	25d	1	1.22mi
2217 NE 33rd Ln Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1706	$2,650	$1.55	25d	1	1.22mi
3622 NE 19th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1286	$2,480	$1.93	25d	1	1.24mi
2620 NE 5th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1597	$3,500	$2.19	25d	1	1.25mi
2205 NE 8th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,200	$1.56	25d	1	1.26mi
3620 NE 9th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1969	$2,085	$1.06	21d	1	1.26mi
3717 NE 13th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,795	$1.27	18d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $249,990 Active 956 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,990 Active 952 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,990 Active 951 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,990 Active 950 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,990 Active 948 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,990 Active 944 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,990 Active 942 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,990 Active 936 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,990 Active 935 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,090
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,174
• − Property taxes: −$4,331
• − Insurance: −$1,444
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,167
• − Management: −$2,167
• − Depreciation: −$8,400
• Taxable loss: −$7,594
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,822
• After-tax cash flow: $-722/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cape Coral

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #3098

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cape Coral, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 217,388
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,231
• Household income: $73,053
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1657.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 24% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 14% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.24%
• Current HPI: 313.8761
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.60%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B