14019 Aguila Ave · Vero Beach South, FL 34951

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,714 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1998 6,050 sqft lot Est $195k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lovely 3-bedroom 2-bath home in the desirable Spanish Lakes Fairways community. The home has a spacious, air-conditioned Florida room overlooking the lake. Great for morning coffee or evening cocktails. The back patio is perfect for enjoying the Florida sun. The home's kitchen features white cabinets and granite countertops. extra cabinets, and laundry inside. Full storm shutters. Roof is 2015, A/C is 2018, water heater is 2014. Private 18-hole golf course (no fees to play), 2 pools, pickleball, tennis, shuffleboard, bocce, gym, library, cards, Mah jong, bible study, wood workshop, golf cart parades, dinners, dances, trips, and so much more! Grass cutting is also included, as is trash remov

Key facts

• White cabinets
• 2 pools
• Granite countertops

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM OVERLOOKING LAKE
• BACK PATIO
• WHITE CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PRIVATE GOLF COURSE
• 2 POOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease in place (monthly land lease required, expires 2027)
• HOA & community: Located in a senior community; Pets allowed (pet restrictions possible)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Security patrol
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water from other source; Cable available; Electricity available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Resale home; Faces north
• Construction: Block/CBS construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Waterfront property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Split bedroom layout; Partially furnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.3% in Vero Beach South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#163 in FL, #2,445 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.85%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,396
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6655 Alemendra St	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,530 (-11%)	2mo	$175,000	$114	75
6631 Nuevo Lagos	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,714 (0%)	21mo	$175,000	$102	70
6449 Alemendra St	0.40mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,753 (+2%)	5mo	$309,000	$176	66
14374 Azucena Court Ct	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,599 (-7%)	9mo	$175,000	$109	62
6539 Yedra Ave	0.48mi	2/2.5	1,839 (+7%)	2mo	$309,000	$168	61
14126 Cisne Cir	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,487 (-13%)	7mo	$150,000	$101	56
14434 Azucena Ct	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,487 (-13%)	24mo	$170,000	$114	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-107
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $37,208
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34951

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,140 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,566

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $577	-5% $515	+0% $453	+5% $391	+10% $330
Rent	-10% $284	-5% $369	+0% $453	+5% $538	+10% $622
Rate	-1.0pp $543	-0.5pp $499	base $453	+0.5pp $407	+1.0pp $360

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6765 Spanish Lakes Blvd Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,500	$1.83	25d	1	0.45mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-20
    listed $179,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,675
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,054
• − Management: −$2,054
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $2,753
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$661
• After-tax cash flow: $4,778/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vero Beach South

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #163
• US rank: #2445

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,148
• Household income: $63,122
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 140.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.06%
• Current HPI: 343.1376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $179,000 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

-10.5%/yr

Latest (2021): $248 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.