810 Shrub Ct · Magnolia, TX 77354

$214,690

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,418 sqft · Land · 7 Days on market

Built 2026 $48/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The Idlewood Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Montage Community Services association; Association amenities include playground and trails; Association fee of $575 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Cement siding; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot setting; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen and family room combo; Kitchen and dining combo; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $214,690 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $241,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($90/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 39% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $68k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $190,833 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.13%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,990
• List price: $214,690
• Delta: -4.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $127,184
• Equity at exit: $218,004

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.39×
• Total profit: $364,910
• Equity at exit: $470,133

Cash invested: $67,757 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,908 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,269
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $986/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,899

Max offer price $241,990

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $145	-5% $76	+0% $8	+5% $-61	+10% $-129
Rent	-10% $-143	-5% $-68	+0% $8	+5% $83	+10% $158
Rate	-1.0pp $129	-0.5pp $69	base $8	+0.5pp $-55	+1.0pp $-119

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,498
• Closing costs: $7,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
408 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	44d	1	0.43mi
359 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,725	$1.18	25d	1	0.45mi
423 Jewett Meadow Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,781	$1.36	22d	1	0.51mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	25d	1	0.65mi
937 Gentle Moss Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,635	$1.31	5d	1	0.69mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-15
   price $216,690 415-char remark
2. 2026-05-14
   price $216,690 524-char remark
3. 2026-05-12
   price $227,190 415-char remark
4. 2026-05-11
   price $227,190 524-char remark
5. 2026-05-08
   price $234,190 415-char remark
6. 2026-05-07
   price $234,190 524-char remark
7. 2026-05-05
   price $232,190 415-char remark
8. 2026-05-04
   price $232,190 524-char remark
9. 2026-05-03
   price $236,290 415-char remark
10. 2026-04-22
    price $239,690 415-char remark
11. 2026-04-20
    price $239,690 524-char remark
12. 2026-04-11
    price $236,290 415-char remark
13. 2026-04-10
    price $236,290 524-char remark
14. 2026-04-08
    price $239,790 415-char remark
15. 2026-04-08
    price $239,790 524-char remark
16. 2026-04-03
    price $243,290 415-char remark
17. 2026-04-02
    price $243,290 524-char remark
18. 2026-03-31
    price $239,690 415-char remark
19. 2026-03-31
    price $239,690 524-char remark
20. 2026-03-27
    price $232,440 415-char remark
21. 2026-03-26
    price $232,440 524-char remark
22. 2026-03-24
    listed $245,990 Active 415-char remark
23. 2026-03-24
    listed $245,990 Active 524-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $986 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,929 · $327/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,942/yr (+$245/mo · 298.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,555
• − Property taxes: −$986
• − Insurance: −$1,210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,832
• − Management: −$1,832
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$7,040
• Taxable loss: −$4,131
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$992
• After-tax cash flow: $1,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $214,690 HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $216,690 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $216,690 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $227,190 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $234,190 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $232,190 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $239,690 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $236,290 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $239,790 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $243,290 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $239,690 HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $232,440 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $245,990 HARMLS