115 Fuller Ave · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$185,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,636 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1927 8,510 sqft lot Est $324k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into a home full of character, charm, and opportunity. This four bedroom 1 bath property on a double lot blends distinctive architectural details with undeniable mid century style, making it a great fit for homeowners, investors, or anyone ready to bring their vision to life. Inside, the spacious living room makes an immediate impression with its original crown molding and iconic green shag carpet, adding a bold vintage touch. The layout flows naturally into a formal dining room featuring a classic built-in corner hutch, then into a large country style kitchen with plenty of space to reimagine. Just beyond, the separate butler’s pantry or galley area offers an incredible amount o

Key facts

• Double lot
• Butler pantry
• Detached garage

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• ORIGINAL CROWN MOLDING
• BUTLER PANTRY
• ORIGINAL WOOD CABINETRY
• PRIVATE ROOFTOP SUN DECK
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Electricity connected with circuit breakers; Public water connected; Sewer connected; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story (listed as 1 story); Existing construction; City street frontage; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 88 x 96)
• Construction: Composite siding; Wood siding; Architectural shingle roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Partial fencing; Concrete driveway; Covered porch; Porch; Fence; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Walk-in pantry; Appliances negotiable; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first level (approx. 9 x 14); Second level bedroom (approx. 11 x 13); Second level bedroom (approx. 9 x 10); Second level bedroom (approx. 10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl; Varied flooring types
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Hot water heating
• Interior features: Drapes and window treatments; Separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Separate/formal living room; Living/dining room configuration; Walk-in pantry; Natural woodwork; Bedroom on main level; 10 total rooms; Full basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.59%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $323,928
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
58 Nicholas Dr N	0.63mi	4/1.0	1,434 (-12%)	14mo	$300,000	$209	39
11 Nicholas Dr N	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,736 (+6%)	17mo	$220,000	$127	38
11 Nicholas Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,638 (+0%)	24mo	$325,000	$198	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-10,064
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $39,789
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,856 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,645/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,605

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
115 Klinger Ave Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	3d	1	0.45mi
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	12d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,645 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,886 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: +$241/yr (+$20/mo · 9.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,645
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,781
• − Management: −$1,781
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$610
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$146
• After-tax cash flow: $2,526/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $185,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+13.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,645 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.