31 Casablanca Dr · Onalaska, TX 77364

$140,888

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 71 Days on market

Built 2001 10,001 sqft lot $84/sqft · 45% below area Est $254k · 45% under $38/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into this inviting 3 bedroom manufactured home in a gated waterfront community on Lake Livingston. Boasting 1680 SF, 2 baths, study, spacious kitchen,and dining area. This property offers a cozy retreat. The living room seamlessly connects to the dining room and kitchen, enhancing the sense of space. A study adjoins the master suite for an added convenience. Outside, a fenced side and back yard, storage unit, and carport complete the picture. Take advantage of community perks including a boat ramp, pool, parks, and fishing pier, for a truly vibrant lake living experience. Don't miss.

Key facts

• Fishing pier
• Storage unit
• Boat ramp

Tags

• GATED WATERFRONT COMMUNITY
• FENCED SIDE AND BACK YARD
• STORAGE UNIT
• BOAT RAMP
• FISHING PIER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $141k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.9% in Onalaska — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,055 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Street El (449 students, 70% FRL); Lincoln J H (math 14% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 347 students, 58% FRL); Coldspring-Oakhurst H S (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 496 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 197 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $543 of equity ($974 loan paydown + $-431 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,107 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.68%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,348
• List price: $140,888
• Delta: -44.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
900 Cooke Jones Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-7%)	7mo	$164,000	$105	79
271 Key Largo Loop	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-12%)	6mo	$429,900	$290	64
251 Canary St	0.72mi	3/—	1,568 (-7%)	9mo	$164,900	$105	48
240 Antilles Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,432 (-15%)	9mo	$260,000	$182	37
620 Lagoon Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,872 (+11%)	8mo	$479,000	$256	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-551
• Equity at exit: $38,766

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $22,850
• Equity at exit: $44,922

Cash invested: $39,449 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77364

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,231 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$739
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $585/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,119

Max offer price $140,888

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $128	+0% $88	+5% $48	+10% $9
Rent	-10% $-9	-5% $40	+0% $88	+5% $137	+10% $186
Rate	-1.0pp $159	-0.5pp $124	base $88	+0.5pp $52	+1.0pp $15

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,222
• Closing costs: $4,227
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolsecurity

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,888 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,888 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,888 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,888 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,888 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,888 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,888 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,888 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $140,888 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $141,888 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $141,888 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $141,888 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $141,888 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $141,888 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $141,888 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $141,888 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $141,888 Active 49 DOM
18. 2026-04-30
    price $141,888 595-char remark

    Show marketing remark (595 chars)

    Step into this inviting 3 bedroom manufactured home in a gated waterfront community on Lake Livingston. Boasting 1680 SF, 2 baths, study, spacious kitchen,and dining area. This property offers a cozy retreat. The living room seamlessly connects to the dining room and kitchen, enhancing the sense of space. A study adjoins the master suite for an added convenience. Outside, a fenced side and back yard, storage unit, and carport complete the picture. Take advantage of community perks including a boat ramp, pool, parks, and fishing pier, for a truly vibrant lake living experience. Don't miss.

19. 2026-04-11
    listed $143,888 Active 595-char remark

    Show marketing remark (595 chars)

    Step into this inviting 3 bedroom manufactured home in a gated waterfront community on Lake Livingston. Boasting 1680 SF, 2 baths, study, spacious kitchen,and dining area. This property offers a cozy retreat. The living room seamlessly connects to the dining room and kitchen, enhancing the sense of space. A study adjoins the master suite for an added convenience. Outside, a fenced side and back yard, storage unit, and carport complete the picture. Take advantage of community perks including a boat ramp, pool, parks, and fishing pier, for a truly vibrant lake living experience. Don't miss.

20. 2025-07-24
    soldstatus Closed 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Come Enjoy Lake Life at this Charming Property! Located in the desirable, lakefront gated community of Holiday Villages, this well-maintained and affordable 3/4 bed, 2 bath residence offers ample space, tranquility and convenience! Amenities include a Pool, Lake Access, Boat Dock, Boat Ramp, Boat Slip, Clubhouse, Controlled Access, Park, Party Room, Picnic Area, Playground and RV Parking. Situated on 2 spacious lots (10,001 sq ft), this lovely home is perfect for year-round living or as a vacation retreat. Relax on your expansive front porch while catching seasonal glimpses of the lake. Features a split floor plan, walk-in closets, ample storage throughout, a carport, storage shed, and greenhouse for you to enjoy. Roof recently replaced! Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to make this beautiful property at the lake yours today!

21. 2025-07-08
    status Pending 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Come Enjoy Lake Life at this Charming Property! Located in the desirable, lakefront gated community of Holiday Villages, this well-maintained and affordable 3/4 bed, 2 bath residence offers ample space, tranquility and convenience! Amenities include a Pool, Lake Access, Boat Dock, Boat Ramp, Boat Slip, Clubhouse, Controlled Access, Park, Party Room, Picnic Area, Playground and RV Parking. Situated on 2 spacious lots (10,001 sq ft), this lovely home is perfect for year-round living or as a vacation retreat. Relax on your expansive front porch while catching seasonal glimpses of the lake. Features a split floor plan, walk-in closets, ample storage throughout, a carport, storage shed, and greenhouse for you to enjoy. Roof recently replaced! Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to make this beautiful property at the lake yours today!

22. 2025-05-19
    price $120,000 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Come Enjoy Lake Life at this Charming Property! Located in the desirable, lakefront gated community of Holiday Villages, this well-maintained and affordable 3/4 bed, 2 bath residence offers ample space, tranquility and convenience! Amenities include a Pool, Lake Access, Boat Dock, Boat Ramp, Boat Slip, Clubhouse, Controlled Access, Park, Party Room, Picnic Area, Playground and RV Parking. Situated on 2 spacious lots (10,001 sq ft), this lovely home is perfect for year-round living or as a vacation retreat. Relax on your expansive front porch while catching seasonal glimpses of the lake. Features a split floor plan, walk-in closets, ample storage throughout, a carport, storage shed, and greenhouse for you to enjoy. Roof recently replaced! Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to make this beautiful property at the lake yours today!

23. 2025-03-10
    listed $142,000 Active 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Come Enjoy Lake Life at this Charming Property! Located in the desirable, lakefront gated community of Holiday Villages, this well-maintained and affordable 3/4 bed, 2 bath residence offers ample space, tranquility and convenience! Amenities include a Pool, Lake Access, Boat Dock, Boat Ramp, Boat Slip, Clubhouse, Controlled Access, Park, Party Room, Picnic Area, Playground and RV Parking. Situated on 2 spacious lots (10,001 sq ft), this lovely home is perfect for year-round living or as a vacation retreat. Relax on your expansive front porch while catching seasonal glimpses of the lake. Features a split floor plan, walk-in closets, ample storage throughout, a carport, storage shed, and greenhouse for you to enjoy. Roof recently replaced! Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to make this beautiful property at the lake yours today!

24. 2025-03-10
    historical

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Come Enjoy Lake Life at this Charming Property! Located in the desirable, lakefront gated community of Holiday Villages, this well-maintained and affordable 3/4 bed, 2 bath residence offers ample space, tranquility and convenience! Amenities include a Pool, Lake Access, Boat Dock, Boat Ramp, Boat Slip, Clubhouse, Controlled Access, Park, Party Room, Picnic Area, Playground and RV Parking. Situated on 2 spacious lots (10,001 sq ft), this lovely home is perfect for year-round living or as a vacation retreat. Relax on your expansive front porch while catching seasonal glimpses of the lake. Features a split floor plan, walk-in closets, ample storage throughout, a carport, storage shed, and greenhouse for you to enjoy. Roof recently replaced! Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to make this beautiful property at the lake yours today!

25. 2024-09-29
    listed $152,000 Active
26. 2024-09-29
    historical
27. 2024-08-09
    price $160,000
28. 2024-05-01
    listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $585 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,578 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,993/yr (+$166/mo · 340.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,892
• − Property taxes: −$585
• − Insurance: −$704
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,182
• − Management: −$1,182
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$4,099
• Taxable loss: −$1,327
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$318
• After-tax cash flow: $1,378/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814520
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,916
• Composite: 20.07/100
• National rank: #8653
• State rank: #732 of 826 in TX

Livability — Onalaska

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1055
• US rank: #18716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,835

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Current HPI: 193.4748
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $141,888 HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $143,888 HARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-10 Listed $142,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-29 Listed $152,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-09 Price Changed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-01 Listed $175,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $585 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.