21762 N Essex Dr · Lexington Park, MD 20653

$199,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,375 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1947 6,286 sqft lot Est $296k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this classic two-story Colonial located in the heart of Lexington Park. This well-maintained home offers a perfect blend of traditional charm and modern mechanical updates, providing peace of mind for years to come. Key Features & Updates Modern Kitchen: Recently redone and featuring brand-new appliances, perfect for the home chef. Mechanical Peace of Mind: Equipped with a new propane gas furnace and a high-efficiency on-demand propane water heater. Durability: The roof is fairly new and features high-quality 50-year architectural shingles. Spacious Living: This home offers three comfortable bedrooms and a convenient bath and a half layout. Additional Living Space The parti

Key facts

• 6,286 sq ft lot
• Built 1947
• Listed 8 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane (leased) for heating fuel; Bottled gas hot water
• Home design: Detached structure
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Built year per assessor
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; No tidal water on the lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric cooling (other type)
• Interior features: Plaster walls; Full basement, partially finished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $564 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.0% in Lexington Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#331 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $200k implies a 208% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.09%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,625
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
46465 Midway Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (+3%)	8mo	$196,000	$138	75
46489 Midway Dr	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,568 (+14%)	10mo	$230,000	$147	62
21707 Kearsarge Pl	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,514 (+10%)	1mo	$275,000	$182	61
46701 Thomas Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+6%)	4mo	$315,000	$216	61
21723 Saratoga Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+9%)	16mo	$255,000	$170	60
21549 Morris Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,444 (+5%)	18mo	$325,000	$225	60
21660 N Essex Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+14%)	5mo	$221,000	$141	59
21713 Cabot Pl	0.19mi	3/1.5	1,568 (+14%)	11mo	$230,000	$147	58
46461 Rosewood Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+12%)	2mo	$375,700	$245	51
22055 Fox Ridge Rd	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,326 (-4%)	7mo	$355,000	$268	47
21462 Morris Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+14%)	11mo	$337,000	$215	39
22024 Fox Ridge Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-14%)	8mo	$340,000	$289	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,159
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $22,221
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20653

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,278 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,256/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $564

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,565

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21967 Cuddihy Rd Patuxent River, MD	3.0	2.5	1770	$2,466	$1.39	24d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-10
   listed $199,900 Active
4. 1988-06-27
   soldstatus $65,000
5. 1982-07-21
   soldstatus $46,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,256 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,717 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$461/yr (+$38/mo · 36.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,256
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,187
• − Management: −$2,187
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $3,698
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$888
• After-tax cash flow: $5,877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — Lexington Park

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #17418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington Park, MD
• County: Saint Marys County · 48,152 people
• City population: 26,852
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• Population (ZIP): 26,852
• Household income: $103,048
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1571.0

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 28% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.67%
• Current HPI: 256.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.49%
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+334.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-18 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1988-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1982-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,256 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.