8165 Harborview · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$350,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1956 5,609 sqft lot $561/sqft · at area comps Est $361k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home or vacation cabin ideally located directly across from Birch Bay Waterslides and just a short stroll to the beach. This cozy retreat features a warm log cabin interior that creates the perfect Pacific Northwest getaway vibe. Recent upgrades include a new on-demand water heater and new heating units for year-round comfort. Step outside to enjoy a fully fenced, beautifully landscaped backyard—ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or letting pets roam freely. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence, weekend escape, or income-generating vacation rental, this property offers an unbeatable location and inviting character in the heart of Birch B

Key facts

• Landscaped backyard
• New heating units
• 5,609 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• LANDSCAPED BACKYARD
• ON-DEMAND WATER HEATER
• NEW HEATING UNITS
• MINUTES FROM SANDY SHORES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-624 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (31.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (44.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (44.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $193,413 (44.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.64%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 15.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,008
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -3.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8165 Harborview	0.00mi	2/1.0	624 (0%)	0mo	$350,000	$561	100
4939 Forsberg Rd	0.08mi	2/1.0	620 (-1%)	3mo	$380,000	$613	93
4987 Cottonwood Ct	0.21mi	2/1.0	599 (-4%)	9mo	$383,000	$639	76
4964 Henley	0.14mi	1/1.0 (-1)	605 (-3%)	15mo	$115,000	$190	71
8293 Beachway Dr	0.47mi	2/1.0	640 (+3%)	10mo	$395,000	$617	66
5057 Anderson Rd	0.50mi	2/1.0	576 (-8%)	20mo	$230,000	$399	47
7910 Birch Bay Dr #12	0.67mi	2/1.0	533 (-15%)	0mo	$295,000	$553	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $150,927
• Equity at exit: $315,308

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $475,845
• Equity at exit: $679,973

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 15.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,934 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,050/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-624

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,724

Max offer price $239,741

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-426	-5% $-525	+0% $-624	+5% $-723	+10% $-822
Rent	-10% $-777	-5% $-701	+0% $-624	+5% $-548	+10% $-471
Rate	-1.0pp $-448	-0.5pp $-535	base $-624	+0.5pp $-715	+1.0pp $-807

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Active
2. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-22
   listed $350,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,050 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,430 · $286/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,380/yr (+$115/mo · 67.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$2,050
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,857
• − Management: −$1,857
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$14,091
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,382
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $350,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,050 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.