136 Hemlock St · Mount Carmel, TN 37645

$220,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,485 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1954 0.49 ac lot $148/sqft · at area comps Est $221k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained one-level brick ranch offering stunning mountain views and a spacious lot! This charming home features 4 oversized bedrooms, all with beautiful solid hardwood flooring, and 1 full bath. The large living room showcases gleaming hardwood floors, a cozy wood-burning fireplace with decorative logs, and an expansive picture window that perfectly frames the mountain scenery. Enjoy a dedicated dining room and a functional kitchen, along with the convenience of a one-car garage. Recent updates include new windows installed in 2023 and brand-new gutters, adding to the home's value and appeal. Step outside to a generous yard ideal for entertaining, gardening, or simply enjoying the outdoors. With plenty of space for kids and pets to roam--or even to add a pool--this property offers endless possibilities for making the most of those warm Tennessee summer days. Don't miss this opportunity to own a move-in-ready home with breathtaking views and room to grow! Schedule your viewing today! Selling As Is! Buyer/Buyers agent to verify all information.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Spacious lot
• Mountain views

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• SPACIOUS LOT
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• EXPANSIVE PICTURE WINDOW
• DEDICATED DINING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($759/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.2% in Mount Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#140 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, schools D-.
• Hawkins County (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #93 of 139 in TN (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 151 units permitted in Hawkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hawkins County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $180,000 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.23%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,747
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -0.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
136 Hemlock St	0.00mi	4/1.0	1,485 (0%)	0mo	$195,000	$131	100
206 Crest Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,452 (-2%)	17mo	$350,000	$241	62
614 Rose Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (-5%)	19mo	$190,000	$134	51
338 Hemlock St	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-12%)	14mo	$155,000	$119	44
137 Meadow Springs Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,703 (+15%)	2mo	$345,000	$203	37
225 Dover Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (+4%)	21mo	$235,000	$152	34
219 Grandview St	0.72mi	4/2.5	1,701 (+14%)	13mo	$310,000	$182	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-31,696
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-22,709
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37645

• Home prices YoY: -7.3%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,361/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,720

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $125	+0% $63	+5% $1	+10% $-61
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $-8	+0% $63	+5% $134	+10% $205
Rate	-1.0pp $174	-0.5pp $119	base $63	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
432 Cypress St Mount Carmel, TN	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	13d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-17
   listed $220,000 Active 1072-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1072 chars)

   Well-maintained one-level brick ranch offering stunning mountain views and a spacious lot! This charming home features 4 oversized bedrooms, all with beautiful solid hardwood flooring, and 1 full bath. The large living room showcases gleaming hardwood floors, a cozy wood-burning fireplace with decorative logs, and an expansive picture window that perfectly frames the mountain scenery. Enjoy a dedicated dining room and a functional kitchen, along with the convenience of a one-car garage. Recent updates include new windows installed in 2023 and brand-new gutters, adding to the home's value and appeal. Step outside to a generous yard ideal for entertaining, gardening, or simply enjoying the outdoors. With plenty of space for kids and pets to roam--or even to add a pool--this property offers endless possibilities for making the most of those warm Tennessee summer days. Don't miss this opportunity to own a move-in-ready home with breathtaking views and room to grow! Schedule your viewing today! Selling As Is! Buyer/Buyers agent to verify all information.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,361 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,562 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$201/yr (+$17/mo · 14.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,361
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,040
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$730
• After-tax cash flow: $1,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawkins County
• NCES district ID: 4701740
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $37,555
• Composite: 20.45/100
• National rank: #8581
• State rank: #93 of 139 in TN

Livability — Mount Carmel

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #12696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Carmel, TN
• City population: 5,504
• Population (ZIP): 5,504

Population outlook (Hawkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,226 people
• By 2030: 53,784 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 50,015 · -9.4%
• By 2050: 45,682 · -17.3%
• By 2075: 36,211 · -34.4%
• By 2100: 26,536 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.8) · D 15.2% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.9pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -68.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.8 2020: R+65.8 2016: R+63.4 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.04%
• Current HPI: 329.6095
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $220,000 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,361 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.